J2 League22°22,5 mm13 km/h

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    Shonan BellmareShonan Bellmare
    1–3
    Vegalta SendaiVegalta Sendai
    The model's lean: 2 · Vegalta Sendai (40%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.82 (+6 %)

    Shonan Bellmare vs Vegalta Sendai · J2 League

    1 · Shonan Bellmare 31%X 30%40% Vegalta Sendai · 2

    Analysis: Shonan Bellmare – Vegalta Sendai

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT:

    Vegalta Sendai are favored by the model at 40% to win, with Shonan Bellmare at 31% and a draw at 30%, painting a picture of a tightly contested affair. It's the recent form and predicted dynamics on the pitch that could tip the scales in Vegalta Sendai's favor.

    The hosts, Shonan Bellmare, have struggled to dominate at home, with expected goals of just 1.12 for this match. Their attacking output has been middling, which doesn't bode well against a Sendai side that seems to be finding form on the road. Conversely, Sendai's expected goals sit slightly higher at 1.22, suggesting they have a marginally sharper attack. While neither team lights up the scoreboard regularly, the visitors have shown a knack for grinding out results, which could again come into play.

    The weather forecast of 22.9°C with 9.3 mm of rain is likely to suppress the attacking play further, aligning with the model's prediction of a low-scoring game. The numbers suggest a lean towards under 2.5 goals, with just a 42% chance of exceeding that mark and a 48% likelihood of both teams scoring. This aligns with the model's most probable scorelines, notably a 1-1 draw, a narrow 0-1 victory for the visitors, or a 1-0 win for the hosts.

    Given these dynamics, the value proposition is evident in backing Vegalta Sendai to win. At odds of 2.75 with Bet365, the potential return suggests a calculated risk worth considering, especially if the game unfolds as tightly as anticipated. The intersection of current form and expected goals makes this a compelling angle to explore.

    Shonan BellmareShonan Bellmare
    Form WWDD
    Key players
    • Taiyo NishinoFxG 0.34 · xT 0.10
    • Sere MatsumuraLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
    • Soki TamuraLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.03
    Vegalta SendaiVegalta Sendai
    Form LLDWW
    Key players
    • Shunta ArakiFxG 0.08 · xT 0.04
    • Tsubasa UmekiFxG 0.49 · xT 0.12
    • Hidetoshi TakedaRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.10
    Final score
    1 – 3
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Shonan Bellmare 31% · Draw 30% · Vegalta Sendai 40%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Shonan BellmareBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 11,60fair 15,82-27 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Vegalta SendaiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,41fair 13,40-30 %
    Hit

    Match prediction: Shonan Bellmare – Vegalta Sendai

    Predicted score matrix

    Vegalta Sendai →
    Shonan Bellmare →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.9%
    0–111.3%
    0–27.2%
    0–32.9%
    0–4+1.2%
    1
    1–010.3%
    1–113.5%
    1–28.0%
    1–33.3%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–06.0%
    2–17.4%
    2–24.5%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–02.3%
    3–12.8%
    3–21.7%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–00.8%
    4+–11.0%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.1-010%
    4. 4.0-010%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,12–1,22
    Both teams to score
    48%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,558%
    @1.82EV+6%
    Over 2,542%
    @2.15

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Vegalta Sendai or draw (X2)67%
    • Under 3.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.89

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Vegalta Sendai or draw (X2)67%
    • Under 2.5 goals58%
    • Ayumu Furuya to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score48%
    • Over 2.5 goals42%
    • Ayumu Furuya to score27%
    • Renji Matsui to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.558% probability@1.82PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
    • X · Draw30% probability@3.41PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Shonan BellmareX2 · Vegalta Sendai
    Betsafe2.853.102.35
    Betsson2.853.102.35
    Nordicbet2.853.102.35
    Pinnacle2.91
    EV+ 1%
    3.41    		2.40

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:32

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 1 September — the odds have shortened from 2.19 to 2.01 (−8%).

    1+2 %
    38 %28 %

    2.85 → 2.91

    X+3 %
    33 %23 %

    3.30 → 3.41

    20 %
    44 %34 %

    2.41 → 2.40

    Over 2,5-8 %
    50 %40 %

    2.19 → 2.01

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Shonan Bellmare
    Vegalta Sendai
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Shonan Bellmare (4–2)
    Vegalta Sendai (6–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Shonan Bellmare
    Shohei Takeda: 136 passningar, xT -0.22TakedaSere Matsumura: 114 passningar, xT 0.35MatsumuraYutaro Hakamata: 109 passningar, xT 0.3HakamataArthur Silva Feitoza: 104 passningar, xT 0.15FeitozaKazuki Dohana: 100 passningar, xT 0.01DohanaYuto Suzuki: 95 passningar, xT 0.19SuzukiSoki Tamura: 64 passningar, xT 0.1TamuraNaoki Kase: 58 passningar, xT 0.47KaseHiroto Yamada: 41 passningar, xT 0.05YamadaTaiyo Nishino: 39 passningar, xT 0.16NishinoKota Sanada: 36 passningar, xT 0.12Sanada
    Vegalta Sendai
    Shion Inoue: 167 passningar, xT 0.44InoueMateus Moraes: 135 passningar, xT 0.6MoraesHiromu Kamada: 115 passningar, xT 0.12KamadaHayata Ishii: 106 passningar, xT 0.51IshiiMasayuki Okuyama: 80 passningar, xT 0.24OkuyamaRyota Takada: 79 passningar, xT 0.4TakadaMotohiko Nakajima: 72 passningar, xT 0.34NakajimaAkihiro Hayashi: 60 passningar, xT 0.22HayashiHidetoshi Takeda: 56 passningar, xT 0.23TakedaSena Igarashi: 54 passningar, xT 0.01IgarashiYota Sugiyama: 49 passningar, xT 0.04Sugiyama
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Shonan Bellmare
    Shohei Takeda: 136 passningar, xT -0.22TakedaSere Matsumura: 114 passningar, xT 0.35MatsumuraYutaro Hakamata: 109 passningar, xT 0.3HakamataArthur Silva Feitoza: 104 passningar, xT 0.15FeitozaKazuki Dohana: 100 passningar, xT 0.01DohanaYuto Suzuki: 95 passningar, xT 0.19SuzukiSoki Tamura: 64 passningar, xT 0.1TamuraNaoki Kase: 58 passningar, xT 0.47KaseHiroto Yamada: 41 passningar, xT 0.05YamadaTaiyo Nishino: 39 passningar, xT 0.16NishinoKota Sanada: 36 passningar, xT 0.12Sanada
    Vegalta Sendai
    Shion Inoue: 167 passningar, xT 0.44InoueMateus Moraes: 135 passningar, xT 0.6MoraesHiromu Kamada: 115 passningar, xT 0.12KamadaHayata Ishii: 106 passningar, xT 0.51IshiiMasayuki Okuyama: 80 passningar, xT 0.24OkuyamaRyota Takada: 79 passningar, xT 0.4TakadaMotohiko Nakajima: 72 passningar, xT 0.34NakajimaAkihiro Hayashi: 60 passningar, xT 0.22HayashiHidetoshi Takeda: 56 passningar, xT 0.23TakedaSena Igarashi: 54 passningar, xT 0.01IgarashiYota Sugiyama: 49 passningar, xT 0.04Sugiyama
    The goalkeepersKota Sanada (Shonan Bellmare)Akihiro Hayashi (Vegalta Sendai)
    Saves184
    Save %90%50%
    xG prevented50%25%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Shonan Bellmare
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Vegalta Sendai
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Shonan Bellmare vs Vegalta Sendai according to our model?

    The model gives Vegalta Sendai a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Shonan Bellmare 31%, draw 30%, Vegalta Sendai 40%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.