J2 League23°86,4 mm18 km/h

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    Yokohama FCYokohama FC
    5–0
    Albirex NiigataAlbirex Niigata
    The model's lean: 1 · Yokohama FC (50%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.47 (+0 %)

    Yokohama FC vs Albirex Niigata · J2 League

    1 · Yokohama FC 50%X 29%21% Albirex Niigata · 2

    Analysis: Yokohama FC – Albirex Niigata

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Yokohama FC's home prowess stands out as a significant factor in this J2 League clash against Albirex Niigata. With a historical 62% win rate at home over 21 matches, the hosts have consistently leveraged their home advantage to good effect. The model assigns Yokohama a 50% chance of victory, a clear nod to their capability on familiar turf.

    However, the 12% probability for both a 1-1 and a 1-0 scoreline suggests a tight affair, potentially influenced by the expected 70.8 mm of rain. Such conditions often suppress goal-scoring opportunities, and this is already factored into the model's numbers, indicating a cautious approach to goal projections. The expected goals tally further underscores this, with Yokohama at 1.54 and Niigata at 1.02, pointing towards a low-scoring encounter.

    Considering Albirex Niigata’s slim 21% chance of winning, their task looks daunting, particularly against a Yokohama team buoyed by home support and favorable statistics. The model’s lean towards the hosts reflects their higher win probability and home advantage.

    With the over 2.5 goals probability at just 47%, the tilt is towards a tighter game rather than a high-scoring spectacle. The chance of both teams finding the net sits narrowly at 51%, further indicating a match where defensive solidity might just overshadow attacking flair.

    For those looking to place a value bet, the emphasis should be on Yokohama FC to edge out their opponents. A 1-0 victory aligns neatly with the most likely scorelines and the model's lean, offering a compelling option for bettors. The home win, backed by historical data, stands out as the sharpest angle here, particularly if found at favorable odds.

    Yokohama FCYokohama FC
    Form DWWLD
    Key players
    • Lukian Araújo de AlmeidaFxG 0.52 · xT 0.07
    • Hinata OguraCDMxG 0.11 · xT 0.13
    • Kaili ShimboLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.27
    Albirex NiigataAlbirex Niigata
    Form LWW
    Key players
    • Kazuyoshi ShimabukuLWxG 0.18 · xT -0.01
    • Tetsuya KatoLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.19
    • Michael James FitzgeraldCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
    Final score
    5 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Yokohama FC 50% · Draw 29% · Albirex Niigata 21%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Yokohama FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,61fair 8,58-23 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Albirex NiigataBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 13,36fair 19,31-31 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Yokohama FC – Albirex Niigata

    Predicted score matrix

    Albirex Niigata →
    Yokohama FC →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.1%
    0–17.5%
    0–24.0%
    0–31.4%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–011.5%
    1–112.5%
    1–26.2%
    1–32.1%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–09.2%
    2–19.4%
    2–24.8%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–04.7%
    3–14.8%
    3–22.5%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–02.6%
    4+–12.6%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,54–1,02
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,553%
    @1.79
    Over 2,547%
    @2.04

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Yokohama FC to win50%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    35%

    Fair odds

    2.88

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Yokohama FC to win50%
    • Under 2.5 goals53%
    • João Paulo Queiroz de Moraes to score30%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals47%
    • João Paulo Queiroz de Moraes to score30%
    • Yusuke Onishi to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw29% probability@3.47PinnacleEV+0%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Yokohama FCX2 · Albirex Niigata
    Betsafe1.883.253.85
    Betsson1.883.253.85
    Nordicbet1.883.253.85
    Pinnacle1.91
    EV+ 0%
    3.47    		4.08

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 10:33

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    53 %48 %

    1.87 → 1.91

    X+1 %
    29 %24 %

    3.43 → 3.47

    2+1 %
    26 %21 %

    4.04 → 4.08

    Over 2,50 %
    50 %45 %

    2.03 → 2.04

    Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Yokohama FC win 62% of their home matches all-time (21 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Yokohama FC
    Albirex Niigata
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Yokohama FC (6–5)
    Albirex Niigata (3–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Yokohama FC
    Kaili Shimbo: 214 passningar, xT 0.95ShimboKyo Hosoi: 212 passningar, xT 0.64HosoiAkinori Ichikawa: 153 passningar, xT 0.1IchikawaHayato Sugita: 148 passningar, xT 0.29SugitaLeo Takae: 141 passningar, xT 0.51TakaeKota Yamada: 95 passningar, xT 0.13YamadaToma Murata: 88 passningar, xT 0.76MurataTakuya Shimamura: 86 passningar, xT 0.32ShimamuraKatsuya Iwatake: 68 passningar, xT 0.14IwatakeAkiyuki Yokoyama: 54 passningar, xT -0.09YokoyamaHinata Ogura: 45 passningar, xT 0.13Ogura
    Albirex Niigata
    Tetsuya Kato: 124 passningar, xT 0.52KatoKakeru Funaki: 112 passningar, xT 0.18FunakiSoya Fujiwara: 103 passningar, xT 0.11FujiwaraEiji Shirai: 80 passningar, xT 0.41ShiraiMichael James Fitzgerald: 64 passningar, xT 0.09FitzgeraldYusuke Onishi: 63 passningar, xT 0.05OnishiNoam Baumann: 53 passningar, xT 0.08BaumannJin Okumura: 51 passningar, xT 0OkumuraYudai Fujiwara: 51 passningar, xT 0.1FujiwaraKazuyoshi Shimabuku: 50 passningar, xT -0.02ShimabukuRyosuke Maeda: 47 passningar, xT 0Maeda
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Yokohama FC
    Kaili Shimbo: 214 passningar, xT 0.95ShimboKyo Hosoi: 212 passningar, xT 0.64HosoiAkinori Ichikawa: 153 passningar, xT 0.1IchikawaHayato Sugita: 148 passningar, xT 0.29SugitaLeo Takae: 141 passningar, xT 0.51TakaeKota Yamada: 95 passningar, xT 0.13YamadaToma Murata: 88 passningar, xT 0.76MurataTakuya Shimamura: 86 passningar, xT 0.32ShimamuraKatsuya Iwatake: 68 passningar, xT 0.14IwatakeAkiyuki Yokoyama: 54 passningar, xT -0.09YokoyamaHinata Ogura: 45 passningar, xT 0.13Ogura
    Albirex Niigata
    Tetsuya Kato: 124 passningar, xT 0.52KatoKakeru Funaki: 112 passningar, xT 0.18FunakiSoya Fujiwara: 103 passningar, xT 0.11FujiwaraEiji Shirai: 80 passningar, xT 0.41ShiraiMichael James Fitzgerald: 64 passningar, xT 0.09FitzgeraldYusuke Onishi: 63 passningar, xT 0.05OnishiNoam Baumann: 53 passningar, xT 0.08BaumannJin Okumura: 51 passningar, xT 0OkumuraYudai Fujiwara: 51 passningar, xT 0.1FujiwaraKazuyoshi Shimabuku: 50 passningar, xT -0.02ShimabukuRyosuke Maeda: 47 passningar, xT 0Maeda
    The goalkeepersAkinori Ichikawa (Yokohama FC)Noam Baumann (Albirex Niigata)
    Saves135
    Save %72%71%
    xG prevented34%73%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Yokohama FC
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Albirex Niigata
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Yokohama FC vs Albirex Niigata according to our model?

    The model gives Yokohama FC a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Yokohama FC 50%, draw 29%, Albirex Niigata 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.