J2 League24°35,3 mm27 km/h

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    Jubilo IwataJubilo Iwata
    0–1
    Kataller ToyamaKataller Toyama
    The model's lean: 2 · Kataller Toyama (39%)

    Jubilo Iwata vs Kataller Toyama · J2 League

    1 · Jubilo Iwata 31%X 29%39% Kataller Toyama · 2

    Analysis: Jubilo Iwata – Kataller Toyama

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    With Jubilo Iwata scoring in nine consecutive league games, their attacking presence is hard to ignore. Yet, against Kataller Toyama, the numbers suggest a different story. Despite Iwata's historical prowess at home, winning 57% of their matches on familiar turf, the visitors emerge as slight favorites according to the model, with a 39% chance of taking all three points. This shift in expectations sets up an intriguing battle against the backdrop of wet conditions, which could dampen goal-scoring opportunities.

    The expected goals metric offers a narrow edge to Toyama, projected at 1.28 compared to Iwata's 1.18. This slight advantage aligns with the model's lean towards Toyama, hinting at a possible 0-1 outcome. The small head-to-head sample size—just two meetings since 2023 with each side claiming a win—suggests these historical results should be treated cautiously. It's Iwata’s recent form that holds more weight, but the odds remain tight.

    Given the rainy forecast, the likelihood of a goal-heavy affair seems low. The model assigns just a 44% chance to over 2.5 goals, underscoring the potential for a more subdued encounter. Both teams to score hangs in the balance at 50%, further emphasizing the unpredictability in front of goal. Yet, the sharper angle lies elsewhere.

    For bettors, the value emerges in the under 2.5 goals market, available at odds of 1.9 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. With the model rating this outcome at 56%, there’s a notable 5% edge to exploit. While Jubilo Iwata's scoring streak might tempt some, the numbers suggest tighter margins will define this clash.

    Jubilo IwataJubilo Iwata
    Form WDLWW
    Key players
    • Joao Victor Lopes do Nascimento SilveiraFxG 1.05 · xT 0.02
    • Ryunosuke OtaFxG 0.25 · xT 0.15
    • Takashi InuiFxG 0.18 · xT 0.16
    Kataller ToyamaKataller Toyama
    Form WWLWL
    Key players
    • Tsubasa YoshihiraFxG 0.72 · xT 0.38
    • Yoshiki TakahashiRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
    • Sota FukazawaCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.24
    Final score
    0 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Jubilo Iwata 31% · Draw 29% · Kataller Toyama 39%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Kataller ToyamaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,42fair 12,06-30 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Jubilo IwataBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,50fair 14,16-47 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Jubilo Iwata – Kataller Toyama

    Predicted score matrix

    Kataller Toyama →
    Jubilo Iwata →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.0%
    0–110.6%
    0–27.0%
    0–33.0%
    0–4+1.3%
    1
    1–09.7%
    1–113.3%
    1–28.3%
    1–33.5%
    1–4+1.5%
    2
    2–05.9%
    2–17.6%
    2–24.9%
    2–32.1%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–02.3%
    3–13.0%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–00.9%
    4+–11.1%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-111%
    3. 3.1-010%
    4. 4.0-09%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,18–1,28
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,556%
    @2.08EV+5%
    Over 2,544%
    @1.80

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Kataller Toyama or draw (X2)66%
    • Under 3.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.96

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Kataller Toyama or draw (X2)66%
    • Under 2.5 goals56%
    • Ayumu Kameda to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals44%
    • Matheus Vieira Campos Peixoto to score24%
    • Daiki Kaneko to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Kataller Toyama39% probability@3.08PinnacleEV+21%reference odds
    • Under 2.556% probability@2.08PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
    • X · Draw29% probability@3.71PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Jubilo IwataX2 · Kataller Toyama
    Betsafe2.403.20
    EV+ 4%
    2.65
    Betsson2.403.20
    EV+ 4%
    2.65
    Nordicbet2.403.20
    EV+ 4%
    2.65
    Pinnacle2.17
    EV+ 9%
    3.71
    EV+ 21%
    3.08

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 10:33

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Jubilo Iwata win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 2.35 to 2.17 (−8%).

    1-8 %
    46 %36 %

    2.35 → 2.17

    X+6 %
    31 %21 %

    3.49 → 3.71

    2+10 %
    38 %28 %

    2.79 → 3.08

    Over 2,5-3 %
    58 %48 %

    1.80 → 1.75

    Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Jubilo Iwata 1Draw 0Kataller Toyama 1
    Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Jubilo Iwata have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
    • Jubilo Iwata win 57% of their home matches all-time (21 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Jubilo Iwata
    Kataller Toyama
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Jubilo Iwata (7–6)
    Kataller Toyama (6–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Jubilo Iwata
    Kensuke Fujiwara: 147 passningar, xT 0.53FujiwaraYuri Lara: 141 passningar, xT 0.21LaraDanilo Cardoso: 132 passningar, xT 0.21CardosoDaiki Kaneko: 123 passningar, xT 0.34KanekoKota Kuwabara: 95 passningar, xT 0.51KuwabaraHirotaka Tameda: 68 passningar, xT 0.18TamedaTakashi Inui: 64 passningar, xT 0.45InuiRyusei Yoshimura: 64 passningar, xT 0.38YoshimuraAyumi Niekawa: 52 passningar, xT 0.15NiekawaTokumo Kawai: 52 passningar, xT -0.03KawaiKo Matsubara: 41 passningar, xT 0.01Matsubara
    Kataller Toyama
    Woo-Young Jung: 230 passningar, xT 1.08JungShunsuke Tanimoto: 172 passningar, xT 0.25TanimotoSota Fukazawa: 165 passningar, xT 0.69FukazawaShosei Okamoto: 141 passningar, xT 0.21OkamotoYoshiki Takahashi: 138 passningar, xT 0.33TakahashiSho Fuseya: 138 passningar, xT 0.63FuseyaToshiki Hirao: 90 passningar, xT 0.13HiraoTae-won Kim: 72 passningar, xT 0.28KimShimpei Nishiya: 71 passningar, xT 0.09NishiyaTsubasa Yoshihira: 60 passningar, xT 0.42YoshihiraDaichi Matsuoka: 50 passningar, xT 0.57Matsuoka
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Jubilo Iwata
    Kensuke Fujiwara: 147 passningar, xT 0.53FujiwaraYuri Lara: 141 passningar, xT 0.21LaraDanilo Cardoso: 132 passningar, xT 0.21CardosoDaiki Kaneko: 123 passningar, xT 0.34KanekoKota Kuwabara: 95 passningar, xT 0.51KuwabaraHirotaka Tameda: 68 passningar, xT 0.18TamedaTakashi Inui: 64 passningar, xT 0.45InuiRyusei Yoshimura: 64 passningar, xT 0.38YoshimuraAyumi Niekawa: 52 passningar, xT 0.15NiekawaTokumo Kawai: 52 passningar, xT -0.03KawaiKo Matsubara: 41 passningar, xT 0.01Matsubara
    Kataller Toyama
    Woo-Young Jung: 230 passningar, xT 1.08JungShunsuke Tanimoto: 172 passningar, xT 0.25TanimotoSota Fukazawa: 165 passningar, xT 0.69FukazawaShosei Okamoto: 141 passningar, xT 0.21OkamotoYoshiki Takahashi: 138 passningar, xT 0.33TakahashiSho Fuseya: 138 passningar, xT 0.63FuseyaToshiki Hirao: 90 passningar, xT 0.13HiraoTae-won Kim: 72 passningar, xT 0.28KimShimpei Nishiya: 71 passningar, xT 0.09NishiyaTsubasa Yoshihira: 60 passningar, xT 0.42YoshihiraDaichi Matsuoka: 50 passningar, xT 0.57Matsuoka
    The goalkeepersAyumi Niekawa (Jubilo Iwata)Toshiki Hirao (Kataller Toyama)
    Saves64
    Save %50%44%
    xG prevented24%55%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Jubilo Iwata
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Kataller Toyama
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Jubilo Iwata vs Kataller Toyama according to our model?

    The model gives Kataller Toyama a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jubilo Iwata 31%, draw 29%, Kataller Toyama 39%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.