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    Montedio YamagataMontedio Yamagata
    1–2
    Ventforet KofuVentforet Kofu
    The model's lean: 1 · Montedio Yamagata (39%)Best value by the model: 2 · Ventforet Kofu @ 3.79 (+20 %)

    Montedio Yamagata vs Ventforet Kofu · J2 League

    1 · Montedio Yamagata 39%X 29%32% Ventforet Kofu · 2

    Analysis: Montedio Yamagata – Ventforet Kofu

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    The model gives a slight edge to Montedio Yamagata with a 39% win probability, but the numbers point to a competitive clash. The expected goals are close, with Yamagata at 1.19 and Ventforet Kofu at 1.08, suggesting a tight encounter. The most likely scorelines heavily favor a low-scoring affair, with 1-1 at 14% and 1-0 at 12%. Despite this, the historical head-to-head suggests a different story, averaging 3.0 goals per game since 2023, even though the small sample size of five matches limits its weight.

    Yamagata has had the upper hand in their recent encounters, winning three of the last five matches. Yet, the model's probabilities and the expected goals hint at a balanced contest rather than dominance. With both teams having a 46% chance to score, the under 2.5 goals seems more likely to hit, aligning with the 60% probability for fewer than three goals.

    For bettors, the standout angle lies with Ventforet Kofu. Despite the model leaning towards Yamagata, the odds on the visitors are enticing. At 3.75 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a significant value edge of 19%, given the model's 32% probability for a Kofu win. This value assessment could prove crucial for those looking to back the underdog.

    Montedio YamagataMontedio Yamagata
    Form WWLWW
    Key players
    • Ayumu KawaiRWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.30
    • Akira Silvano DisaroFxG 0.72 · xT 0.05
    • Junya TakahashiCAMxG 0.36 · xT 0.00
    Ventforet KofuVentforet Kofu
    Form DLDLW
    Key players
    • Kazushi FujiiFxG 0.35 · xT 0.04
    • Sho ArakiCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
    • Yamato NaitoFxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
    Final score
    1 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Montedio Yamagata 39% · Draw 29% · Ventforet Kofu 32%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Ventforet KofuBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 13,18fair 17,59-25 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Montedio YamagataBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,96fair 14,42-52 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Montedio Yamagata – Ventforet Kofu

    Predicted score matrix

    Ventforet Kofu →
    Montedio Yamagata →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.7%
    0–110.7%
    0–26.0%
    0–32.2%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–011.9%
    1–113.7%
    1–27.1%
    1–32.6%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–07.4%
    2–17.9%
    2–24.3%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–02.9%
    3–13.1%
    3–21.7%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.1%
    4+–11.2%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.0-111%
    4. 4.0-011%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,19–1,08
    Both teams to score
    46%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,560%
    @1.76EV+6%
    Over 2,540%
    @2.07

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Montedio Yamagata or draw (1X)68%
    • Under 3.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.83

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Montedio Yamagata or draw (1X)68%
    • Under 2.5 goals60%
    • Junya Takahashi to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score46%
    • Over 2.5 goals40%
    • Junya Takahashi to score26%
    • Taiju Ichinose to be booked18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Ventforet Kofu32% probability@3.79PinnacleEV+20%reference odds
    • 2 · Ventforet Kofu32% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
    • 2 · Ventforet Kofu32% probability@3.70BetssonEV+17%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Montedio YamagataX2 · Ventforet Kofu
    Betsafe1.953.20
    EV+ 17%
    3.70
    Betsson1.953.20
    EV+ 17%
    3.70
    Nordicbet1.953.20
    EV+ 17%
    3.70
    Pinnacle2.013.38
    EV+ 20%
    3.79

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 08:32

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Ventforet Kofu win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 4.40 to 3.79 (−14%).

    1+14 %
    55 %45 %

    1.77 → 2.01

    X-5 %
    32 %22 %

    3.55 → 3.38

    2-14 %
    28 %18 %

    4.40 → 3.79

    Over 2,5+4 %
    52 %42 %

    1.99 → 2.07

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Montedio Yamagata 3Draw 0Ventforet Kofu 2
    Goals: 7–8 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Montedio Yamagata
    Ventforet Kofu
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Montedio Yamagata (7–1)
    Ventforet Kofu (3–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Montedio Yamagata
    Riku Morioka: 186 passningar, xT 0.28MoriokaHayate Sugii: 158 passningar, xT 0.63SugiiRyotaro Nakamura: 154 passningar, xT 0.19NakamuraKiriya Sakamoto: 139 passningar, xT 0.3SakamotoTsubasa Terayama: 137 passningar, xT 0.4TerayamaRyusei Sato: 105 passningar, xT 0.13SatoRyoma Kida: 102 passningar, xT 0.51KidaKazuma Okamoto: 84 passningar, xT 0.24OkamotoShoma Doi: 67 passningar, xT 0.45DoiHayate Shirowa: 61 passningar, xT 0.12ShirowaAyumu Kawai: 51 passningar, xT 0.36Kawai
    Ventforet Kofu
    Sho Araki: 144 passningar, xT 0.4ArakiKojiro Yasuda: 143 passningar, xT 0.22YasudaYuta Koide: 135 passningar, xT 0.33KoideHikaru Endo: 130 passningar, xT 0.24EndoSeigo Takei: 112 passningar, xT 0.48TakeiShun Fukumoto: 76 passningar, xT 0.11FukumotoYukito Murakami: 74 passningar, xT 0.07MurakamiIwana Kobayashi: 64 passningar, xT 0.45KobayashiKazuhiro Sato: 54 passningar, xT 0.17SatoKodai Yamauchi: 44 passningar, xT 0.07YamauchiKazushi Fujii: 41 passningar, xT -0.02Fujii
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Montedio Yamagata
    Riku Morioka: 186 passningar, xT 0.28MoriokaHayate Sugii: 158 passningar, xT 0.63SugiiRyotaro Nakamura: 154 passningar, xT 0.19NakamuraKiriya Sakamoto: 139 passningar, xT 0.3SakamotoTsubasa Terayama: 137 passningar, xT 0.4TerayamaRyusei Sato: 105 passningar, xT 0.13SatoRyoma Kida: 102 passningar, xT 0.51KidaKazuma Okamoto: 84 passningar, xT 0.24OkamotoShoma Doi: 67 passningar, xT 0.45DoiHayate Shirowa: 61 passningar, xT 0.12ShirowaAyumu Kawai: 51 passningar, xT 0.36Kawai
    Ventforet Kofu
    Sho Araki: 144 passningar, xT 0.4ArakiKojiro Yasuda: 143 passningar, xT 0.22YasudaYuta Koide: 135 passningar, xT 0.33KoideHikaru Endo: 130 passningar, xT 0.24EndoSeigo Takei: 112 passningar, xT 0.48TakeiShun Fukumoto: 76 passningar, xT 0.11FukumotoYukito Murakami: 74 passningar, xT 0.07MurakamiIwana Kobayashi: 64 passningar, xT 0.45KobayashiKazuhiro Sato: 54 passningar, xT 0.17SatoKodai Yamauchi: 44 passningar, xT 0.07YamauchiKazushi Fujii: 41 passningar, xT -0.02Fujii
    The goalkeepersRyusei Sato (Montedio Yamagata)Kodai Yamauchi (Ventforet Kofu)
    Saves1310
    Save %93%63%
    xG prevented73%27%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Montedio Yamagata
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Ventforet Kofu
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Montedio Yamagata vs Ventforet Kofu according to our model?

    The model gives Montedio Yamagata a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Montedio Yamagata 39%, draw 29%, Ventforet Kofu 32%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.