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    Sagan TosuSagan Tosu
    2–0
    Tegevajaro MiyazakiTegevajaro Miyazaki
    The model's lean: 2 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki (35%)

    Sagan Tosu vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki · J2 League

    1 · Sagan Tosu 33%X 31%35% Tegevajaro Miyazaki · 2

    Analysis: Sagan Tosu – Tegevajaro Miyazaki

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    With Sagan Tosu hosting Tegevajaro Miyazaki, the numbers suggest a tight contest between two evenly matched sides. The model shows a nearly even split in probabilities: the hosts at 33%, the visitors at 35%, and a draw at 31%. This indicates a balanced matchup, with both teams likely to be cautious and prioritizing defensive solidity over attacking flair.

    The expected goals (xG) figures reinforce the notion of a low-scoring affair: Tosu at 1.18 and Miyazaki at 1.04. This leans towards a measured game, possibly lacking in clear-cut chances. The most likely scorelines—1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), and 0-0 (11%)—highlight the potential for a stalemate or a narrow victory, emphasizing the slim margins that could decide the outcome.

    While over 2.5 goals sit at just 38%, suggesting restraint in front of goal, the model leans slightly towards the visitors. Tegevajaro Miyazaki's potential to snatch a result is underscored by the value on offer. The away win is priced at odds of 3.0 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, representing a 6% edge according to the model's 35% win probability for the visitors. This presents an enticing opportunity for those who favor value-driven bets.

    Given the likely shape of the game, a 1-1 draw seems the most plausible outcome. Yet, the slight edge towards Miyazaki, coupled with the betting market's pricing, makes the away win an appealing angle. Bettors should take note of the value odds, with the numbers suggesting Miyazaki as a potential surprise package in this encounter.

    Sagan TosuSagan Tosu
    Form LWDLD
    Key players
    • Toshiki TakahashiFxG 0.29 · xT -0.01
    • Tatsunori SakuraiCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
    • Rio HyonRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.04
    Tegevajaro MiyazakiTegevajaro Miyazaki
    Form LDDL
    Key players
    • Yota ShimokawaLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.22
    • Hikaru ManabeCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
    • Yuma MatsumotoRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
    Final score
    2 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Sagan Tosu 33% · Draw 31% · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 35%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Sagan TosuBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,16fair 14,89-38 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Tegevajaro MiyazakiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 11,75fair 19,14-39 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Sagan Tosu – Tegevajaro Miyazaki

    Predicted score matrix

    Tegevajaro Miyazaki →
    Sagan Tosu →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–011.3%
    0–110.9%
    0–25.9%
    0–32.0%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–012.4%
    1–113.7%
    1–26.9%
    1–32.4%
    1–4+0.8%
    2
    2–07.6%
    2–17.9%
    2–24.1%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–03.0%
    3–13.1%
    3–21.6%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.1%
    4+–11.2%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.0-011%
    4. 4.0-111%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,18–1,04
    Both teams to score
    45%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,2
    Under 2,562%
    @1.64EV+0%
    Over 2,538%
    @2.27

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Tegevajaro Miyazaki or draw (X2)61%
    • Under 3.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    51%

    Fair odds

    1.97

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Tegevajaro Miyazaki or draw (X2)61%
    • Under 2.5 goals62%
    • Yusei Toshida to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score45%
    • Over 2.5 goals38%
    • Yusei Toshida to score26%
    • Riku Yamauchi to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki35% probability@2.95BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
    • 2 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki35% probability@2.95BetssonEV+4%reference odds
    • 2 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki35% probability@2.95NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Sagan TosuX2 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki
    Betsafe2.303.00
    EV+ 4%
    2.95
    Betsson2.303.00
    EV+ 4%
    2.95
    Nordicbet2.303.00
    EV+ 4%
    2.95
    Pinnacle2.673.08
    EV+ 0%
    2.83

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:32

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Tegevajaro Miyazaki win since 1 September — the odds have shortened from 3.31 to 2.83 (−14%).

    1+23 %
    44 %34 %

    2.17 → 2.67

    X-6 %
    35 %25 %

    3.26 → 3.08

    2-14 %
    36 %26 %

    3.31 → 2.83

    Over 2,5+5 %
    48 %38 %

    2.16 → 2.27

    Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Sagan Tosu
    Tegevajaro Miyazaki
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Sagan Tosu (5–5)
    Tegevajaro Miyazaki (3–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Sagan Tosu
    Kaito Abe: 209 passningar, xT 0.06AbeTatsunori Sakurai: 206 passningar, xT 0.24SakuraiShiva Tafari Nagasawa: 196 passningar, xT 0.27NagasawaSora Ogawa: 145 passningar, xT 0.26OgawaAyumu Toyoda: 139 passningar, xT 0.1ToyodaKenta Nishizawa: 102 passningar, xT 0.4NishizawaRio Hyon: 94 passningar, xT 0.04HyonManato Yoshida: 90 passningar, xT 0.25YoshidaRyota Izumori: 86 passningar, xT 0.1IzumoriRyo Shiohama: 77 passningar, xT -0.04ShiohamaNagi Matsumoto: 61 passningar, xT 0Matsumoto
    Tegevajaro Miyazaki
    Yota Shimokawa: 218 passningar, xT 0.96ShimokawaHikaru Manabe: 217 passningar, xT 0.38ManabeEisuke Watanabe: 165 passningar, xT 0.4WatanabeRyoya Kimura: 128 passningar, xT 0.18KimuraRiku Yamauchi: 127 passningar, xT 0YamauchiKoji Okumura: 117 passningar, xT 0.23OkumuraKengo Kuroki: 103 passningar, xT 0.2KurokiYuma Matsumoto: 102 passningar, xT 0.18MatsumotoTakashi Abe: 72 passningar, xT 0.08AbeKaiga Murakoshi: 70 passningar, xT 0.15MurakoshiRen Inoue: 68 passningar, xT 0.04Inoue
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Sagan Tosu
    Kaito Abe: 209 passningar, xT 0.06AbeTatsunori Sakurai: 206 passningar, xT 0.24SakuraiShiva Tafari Nagasawa: 196 passningar, xT 0.27NagasawaSora Ogawa: 145 passningar, xT 0.26OgawaAyumu Toyoda: 139 passningar, xT 0.1ToyodaKenta Nishizawa: 102 passningar, xT 0.4NishizawaRio Hyon: 94 passningar, xT 0.04HyonManato Yoshida: 90 passningar, xT 0.25YoshidaRyota Izumori: 86 passningar, xT 0.1IzumoriRyo Shiohama: 77 passningar, xT -0.04ShiohamaNagi Matsumoto: 61 passningar, xT 0Matsumoto
    Tegevajaro Miyazaki
    Yota Shimokawa: 218 passningar, xT 0.96ShimokawaHikaru Manabe: 217 passningar, xT 0.38ManabeEisuke Watanabe: 165 passningar, xT 0.4WatanabeRyoya Kimura: 128 passningar, xT 0.18KimuraRiku Yamauchi: 127 passningar, xT 0YamauchiKoji Okumura: 117 passningar, xT 0.23OkumuraKengo Kuroki: 103 passningar, xT 0.2KurokiYuma Matsumoto: 102 passningar, xT 0.18MatsumotoTakashi Abe: 72 passningar, xT 0.08AbeKaiga Murakoshi: 70 passningar, xT 0.15MurakoshiRen Inoue: 68 passningar, xT 0.04Inoue
    The goalkeepersRyota Izumori (Sagan Tosu)Ryoya Kimura (Tegevajaro Miyazaki)
    Saves1514
    Save %75%70%
    xG prevented49%39%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Sagan Tosu
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Tegevajaro Miyazaki
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Sagan Tosu vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki according to our model?

    The model gives Tegevajaro Miyazaki a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sagan Tosu 33%, draw 31%, Tegevajaro Miyazaki 35%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 38% and under at 62%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.