01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Aalesund or draw (1X)69%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Norwegian Eliteserien9°21 km/h
Läs på svenska
AalesundLow block & directvs
SandefjordCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Aalesund (43%)
Aalesund vs Sandefjord · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Aalesund 43%X 26%31% Sandefjord · 2
43%
26%
31%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Aalesund vs Sandefjord (Norwegian Eliteserien, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Aalesund win 43%, draw 26%, Sandefjord win 31%. Expected goals (xG): Aalesund 1.69, Sandefjord 1.39. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Aalesund or draw 69%, Sandefjord or draw 57%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Aalesund – Sandefjord
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: Sixteen consecutive league matches with a goal — that's the striking streak Aalesund brings into their clash with Sandefjord. This offensive consistency lends weight to the model's lean towards the hosts, with a 43% probability of a home win. Despite a solitary head-to-head encounter since 2021, which Sandefjord edged, the sample is too small to overshadow current form and expected goals.
Aalesund's direct, low-defense approach has translated into an average xG of 1.5 per match, outpacing their visitors' 1.2. However, their defensive frailties are evident with 2.1 xGA per game, compared to Sandefjord's 1.8. This disparity suggests that while the hosts may find the net, keeping Sandefjord at bay is another story. Both teams to score is backed by a 62% probability, aligning with the attacking profiles and recent form.
The market expects over 2.5 goals at 60%, and with Aalesund's scoring streak, it's a credible angle. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 and a narrow home win of 2-1 indicate a tight contest. Aalesund's offensive edge and the model's lean make them the more attractive side to watch in this matchup.
AalesundForm WLWLW
League ranking xG #10xGA #16xT #9xP/match #9Points #14
Key players
- Kristian Hemmingsen LonebuFxG 0.26 · xT 0.02
- Mathias Minik Fals Schandorff ChristensenCMxG 0.18 · xT 0.11
- Marcus Haagensen ReedFxG 0.48 · xT 0.04
SandefjordForm DLWDL
League ranking xG #13xGA #11xT #11xP/match #15Points #13
Key players
- Zinedin SmajlovicCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
- Sebastian Holm MathisenFxG 0.27 · xT 0.03
- Evangelos PatoulidisRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.24
Match prediction: Aalesund – Sandefjord
Predicted score matrix
Sandefjord →
Aalesund →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.9%
0–16.1%
0–24.4%
0–32.1%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–07.4%
1–111.1%
1–27.5%
1–33.5%
1–4+1.6%
2
2–06.6%
2–19.1%
2–26.3%
2–32.9%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–03.7%
3–15.1%
3–23.6%
3–31.7%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–13.2%
4+–22.2%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,69–1,39
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
–
Over 2,560%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Aalesund or draw (1X)69%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Kristian Hemmingsen Lonebu to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Nikolaj Duus Möller to score23%
- Zinedin Smajlović to be booked19%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesAalesund 0Draw 0Sandefjord 1
Goals: 0–1 (⌀ 1)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- Aalesund have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Aalesund
Sandefjord
Aalesund (39–51)
Sandefjord (22–30)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Aalesund
Sandefjord
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Aalesund
Sandefjord
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Aalesund | Sandefjord |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 24 | 24 |
| xPoints | 29.7 | 27.2 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Aalesund | Sandefjord |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.99 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 19 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 304 | 397 |
| Passes against per match | 411 | 385 |
| Switches of play per match | 15.6 | 28.5 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 38 |
| Set pieces | Aalesund | Sandefjord |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.3 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 7.4 | 6.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Other | Aalesund | Sandefjord |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | Kristoffer Klaesson (Aalesund) | Elias Hadaya (Sandefjord) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 42 | 82 |
| Save % | 69% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 55% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- KFUM – Hamarkameratene24 October 2026
- Fredrikstad – Rosenborg24 October 2026
- Start – Lillestrøm24 October 2026
- Sarpsborg – Kristiansund24 October 2026
- Bodø/Glimt – Viking24 October 2026
- Hamarkameratene – Rosenborg24 October 2026
- Bodø/Glimt – Vålerenga24 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Aalesund vs Sandefjord according to our model?
The model gives Aalesund a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Aalesund 43%, draw 26%, Sandefjord 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Aalesund vs Sandefjord?
The model expects 1.69 goals (xG) for Aalesund and 1.39 for Sandefjord, 3.08 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Aalesund or draw (1X) 69%, Sandefjord or draw (X2) 57% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.