Vålerenga vs Tromsø Prediction: Away win 43% (24 Oct 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien24 October 20269°4,5 mm23 km/h

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VålerengaLow block & direct

TromsøPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Tromsø (43%)

1 · Vålerenga 33%X 23%43% Tromsø · 2

33%

23%

43%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Vålerenga vs Tromsø (Norwegian Eliteserien, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Vålerenga win 33%, draw 23%, Tromsø win 43%. Expected goals (xG): Vålerenga 1.39, Tromsø 1.59. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Vålerenga or draw 57%, Tromsø or draw 67%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Vålerenga – Tromsø

Marcus Johansson · 23 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Tromsø's edge in both points and expected points this season paints a clear picture: they are the team to beat in this matchup. With a 43% model probability of victory against Vålerenga's 33%, the visitors hold a statistical advantage that is difficult to ignore. Tromsø’s control over possession should allow them to dictate the pace, exploiting the hosts' preference for a low defensive line and quick transitions. This clash of styles could lead to a fascinating tactical battle, but Tromsø's ability to manage the game suggests they should emerge on top.

Despite the rain expected to fall, which traditionally suppresses scoring, the model still leans towards a 57% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance that both teams will find the net. Vålerenga's direct approach, combined with Tromsø's more controlled play, supports the notion of goals on both sides, even if the conditions slightly depress the overall count.

The small head-to-head sample since 2021, with just a single Tromsø win, shouldn’t weigh heavily against the broader form indicators. Vålerenga’s defensive vulnerabilities, evidenced by their xGA of 1.7 per match compared to Tromsø's more robust 1.4, are likely to be exposed by Tromsø’s superior attacking output. The visitors' edge in xG per match (1.8 to Vålerenga’s 1.7) further underscores their capacity to capitalize on these defensive gaps.

The model’s most likely scoreline is actually a 1-1 draw (12%), narrowly ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 (8%), reflecting the tight statistical margins despite Tromsø’s overall edge. This potent combination of data-driven insights and current form makes Tromsø a compelling prospect to take three points, though the scoreline picture remains close.

Vålerenga

Form DLDLW

League ranking xG #7xGA #9xT #5xP/match #7Points #11

Key players

Henrik BjordalRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.18
Carl LangeCMxG 0.16 · xT 0.11
Sebastian JarlCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.12

Tromsø

Form LLWDD

League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #6xP/match #3Points #4

Key players

David EdvardssonCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
Leon HienCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.05
Vetle SkjærvikCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.20

Match prediction: Vålerenga – Tromsø

Predicted score matrix

Tromsø →

Vålerenga →

0–05.4%

0–17.7%

0–26.4%

0–33.4%

0–4+1.9%

1–06.7%

1–111.6%

1–28.9%

1–34.7%

1–4+2.7%

2–04.9%

2–17.8%

2–26.2%

2–33.3%

2–4+1.9%

3–02.3%

3–13.6%

3–22.9%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.9%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,39–1,59

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

–

Over 2,557%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Tromsø or draw (X2)67%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Tromsø or draw (X2)67%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Heine Åsen Larsen to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Mathias Grundetjern to score27%
Petter Dahle Strand to be booked21%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Vålerenga 0Draw 0Tromsø 1

Goals: 0–4 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vålerenga

Tromsø

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Vålerenga (38–46)

Tromsø (42–31)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vålerenga

Tromsø

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vålerenga

Tromsø

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vålerenga	Tromsø
Points	26	40
xPoints	31.7	36.5
xG per match	1.7	1.8
xGA per match	1.7	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.22

Playing style	Vålerenga	Tromsø
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.31
Field tilt	0.5	0.5
xT per match	1.3	1.2
xTA per match	1.1	0.97
Won balls, offensive half	26	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.25
Entries into the box per match	16	16
Entries into the box against	17	13
Pass completion %	0.75	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.73
Passes per match	369	436
Passes against per match	381	427
Switches of play per match	24.2	22.9
Long balls per match	33	42

Set pieces	Vålerenga	Tromsø
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.07
Corners per match	6.9	5.1
Corners against per match	5.8	4.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.42	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.53

Other	Vålerenga	Tromsø
Throw-in control	0.73	0.76

The goalkeepers	Oscar Thore Hedvall (Vålerenga)	Jakob Haugaard (Tromsø)
Saves	77	53
Save %	63%	68%
xG prevented	46%	46%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Vålerenga

Fixtures, form & tips

Tromsø

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vålerenga vs Tromsø according to our model?

The model gives Tromsø a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vålerenga 33%, draw 23%, Tromsø 43%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Vålerenga vs Tromsø?

The model expects 1.39 goals (xG) for Vålerenga and 1.59 for Tromsø, 2.98 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Vålerenga or draw (1X) 57%, Tromsø or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 77%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.