01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Lillestrøm to win47%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Norwegian Eliteserien11°17,6 mm28 km/h
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StartLow block & directvs
LillestrømBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Lillestrøm (47%)
Start vs Lillestrøm · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Start 28%X 25%47% Lillestrøm · 2
28%
25%
47%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Start vs Lillestrøm (Norwegian Eliteserien, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Start win 28%, draw 25%, Lillestrøm win 47%. Expected goals (xG): Start 1.28, Lillestrøm 1.57. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Start or draw 53%, Lillestrøm or draw 72%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Start – Lillestrøm
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Lillestrøm's visit to Start has the makings of a tightly contested affair, driven by both form and quality metrics. The visitors, sitting comfortably with 36 points compared to Start's 16, naturally come in as the favorites. While the model gives Lillestrøm a 47% chance of victory, the recent three-match losing streak for Start adds further weight to the visitors' prospects.
The expected goals (xG) suggest a slight but notable edge for Lillestrøm, with 1.57 compared to Start's 1.28. This aligns with their balanced and physical play style, likely to exploit Start's vulnerable defense. Despite Start's direct style potentially causing sporadic threats, their 2.0 xGA per match is a glaring weakness Lillestrøm can capitalize on, especially given the hosts' current confidence dip.
A small head-to-head sample favors Lillestrøm as well, with a single win in their recent history; however, with only one match played, this factor is less influential than current form. The model's lean towards Lillestrøm is reinforced by the expected weather conditions—heavy rain—which may dampen both teams' offensive output, yet this is already considered in the model's predictions. The over 2.5 goals market sits at 54%, suggesting a moderate lean towards goals in this fixture.
The sharpest angle here is Lillestrøm to win, and the numbers point to Lillestrøm emerging as 1-2 victors, but in a match not devoid of risk, there's just enough on the table to back the visitors.
StartForm LWLLL
League ranking xG #11xGA #15xT #10xP/match #13Points #16
Key players
- Mikael UglandCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
- Jens Berland HuseboCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.07
- John Olav NorheimCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.08
LillestrømForm WWLDW
League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #13xP/match #8Points #6
Key players
- Ruben GabrielsenCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
- Sander Moen FossCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
- Lars RangerRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: Start – Lillestrøm
Predicted score matrix
Lillestrøm →
Start →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.1%
0–18.7%
0–27.1%
0–33.7%
0–4+2.1%
1
1–07.0%
1–111.9%
1–29.1%
1–34.8%
1–4+2.7%
2
2–04.7%
2–17.4%
2–25.9%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.7%
3
3–02.0%
3–13.2%
3–22.5%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.4%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-17%
- 5.0-27%
Expected goals
1,28–1,57
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
–
Over 2,554%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Lillestrøm to win47%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Vladimiro Etson António Félix to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Vladimiro Etson António Félix to score20%
- Erlend Segberg to be booked20%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesStart 0Draw 0Lillestrøm 1
Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- Start have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Start
Lillestrøm
Start (25–54)
Lillestrøm (32–31)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Start
Lillestrøm
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Start
Lillestrøm
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Start | Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 36 |
| xPoints | 27.7 | 30.4 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| Playing style | Start | Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.94 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 292 | 398 |
| Passes against per match | 430 | 389 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.1 | 25.9 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Start | Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5.3 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.68 |
| Other | Start | Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Jacob Pryts (Start) | Pontus Jacob Ragne Dahlberg (Lillestrøm) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 41 | 95 |
| Save % | 53% | 76% |
| xG prevented | 34% | 59% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Brann – Molde24 October 2026
- Aalesund – Sandefjord24 October 2026
- Vålerenga – Tromsø24 October 2026
- KFUM – Hamarkameratene24 October 2026
- Fredrikstad – Rosenborg24 October 2026
- Sarpsborg – Kristiansund24 October 2026
- Bodø/Glimt – Viking24 October 2026
- Hamarkameratene – Rosenborg24 October 2026
- Bodø/Glimt – Vålerenga24 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Start vs Lillestrøm according to our model?
The model gives Lillestrøm a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Start 28%, draw 25%, Lillestrøm 47%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Start vs Lillestrøm?
The model expects 1.28 goals (xG) for Start and 1.57 for Lillestrøm, 2.85 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Start or draw (1X) 53%, Lillestrøm or draw (X2) 72% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.