Bodø/Glimt vs Vålerenga Prediction: Home win 69% (24 Oct 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien24 October 202610°1,3 mm31 km/h

Läs på svenska

Bodø/GlimtPossession & high press

VålerengaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Bodø/Glimt (69%)Best value by the model: 2 · Vålerenga @ 18.50 (+159 %)

1 · Bodø/Glimt 69%X 17%14% Vålerenga · 2

69%

17%

14%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Bodø/Glimt vs Vålerenga (Norwegian Eliteserien, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Bodø/Glimt win 69%, draw 17%, Vålerenga win 14%. Expected goals (xG): Bodø/Glimt 2.49, Vålerenga 1.02. Most likely score: 2-1 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Bodø/Glimt or draw 86%, Vålerenga or draw 31%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Bodø/Glimt – Vålerenga

Erik Lindberg · 24 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Bodø/Glimt's fortress-like form at home stands out, with a staggering 78% win rate across 41 matches. This consistency, combined with their ability to score in 16 straight league games, underscores the daunting task facing Vålerenga. The hosts' preference for possession and a high press is likely to dominate proceedings. Vålerenga, on the other hand, typically rely on a low defensive block and direct play, which might struggle to contain Bodø/Glimt's relentless attack.

Analyzing the numbers, Bodø/Glimt's expected goals per match (3.0) far outstrip those of their opponents (1.7), reinforcing their offensive potency. Meanwhile, the visitors' defense seems porous, conceding an average of 1.7 xGA per match compared to Bodø/Glimt's 0.93. The model shows a 69% probability for a home win, reflecting the disparity in both form and underlying metrics.

With most likely scorelines of 2-1 and 2-0, the match leans towards Bodø/Glimt controlling the game, but Vålerenga's occasional counter-punch could breach the hosts' defense. The over 2.5 goals market, at 68%, seems a viable angle given Bodø/Glimt's attacking prowess and Vålerenga's defensive vulnerabilities. However, the 59% probability of both teams scoring tempers expectations for a complete shutout by the hosts.

For those with an appetite for higher risks, the value lies in Vålerenga at 17.0 with Nordicbet, given their 14% chance of an upset — a significant edge. Alternatively, the under 1.5 goals market at odds of 13.0 with Betsafe offers a tantalizing 73% edge, though it defies the expected pattern of play. Ultimately, Bodø/Glimt's form and metrics suggest a straightforward victory, but the value bets tempt the more adventurous.

Bodø/Glimt

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Jens Petter HaugeLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.38
Jostein GundersenCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
Patrick BergCDMxG 0.20 · xT 0.21

Vålerenga

Form DLDLW

League ranking xG #7xGA #9xT #5xP/match #7Points #11

Key players

Henrik BjordalRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.18
Carl LangeCMxG 0.16 · xT 0.11
Sebastian JarlCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Bodø/Glimt – Vålerenga

Predicted score matrix

Vålerenga →

Bodø/Glimt →

0–03.2%

0–12.8%

0–21.5%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.2%

1–07.3%

1–17.8%

1–23.9%

1–31.3%

1–4+0.4%

2–09.3%

2–19.5%

2–24.8%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–07.7%

3–17.8%

3–24.0%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.4%

4+–08.7%

4+–18.8%

4+–24.5%

4+–31.5%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-19%
2.2-09%
3.3-18%
4.1-18%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,49–1,02

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+28%

Under 2,532%

@5.45EV+69%

Over 2,568%

@1.16

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bodø/Glimt to win69%
Over 1.5 goals87%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bodø/Glimt to win69%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Jens Petter Hauge to score39%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Jens Petter Hauge to score39%
Petter Dahle Strand to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Vålerenga14% probability@18.50NordicbetEV+159%reference odds
2 · Vålerenga14% probability@18.00BetsafeEV+152%reference odds
2 · Vålerenga14% probability@15.73PinnacleEV+120%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bodø/Glimt	X	2 · Vålerenga
Betsafe	1.11	EV+ 65% 10.00	EV+ 152% 18.00
LeoVegas	1.13	EV+ 49% 9.00	EV+ 82% 13.00
Nordicbet	1.12	EV+ 74% 10.50	EV+ 159% 18.50
Pinnacle	1.13	EV+ 78% 10.79	EV+ 120% 15.73

Odds updated 24 Oct, 11:37

Odds movement

10 %

87 %82 %

1.13 → 1.13

X+11 %

12 %7 %

9.69 → 10.79

2+16 %

9 %4 %

13.51 → 15.73

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Bodø/Glimt 2Draw 0Vålerenga 1

Goals: 10–6 (⌀ 5,3)

Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

Key facts

FK Bodo/Glimt have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.
FK Bodo/Glimt win 78% of their home matches all-time (41 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bodø/Glimt

Vålerenga

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bodø/Glimt (58–20)

Vålerenga (38–46)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bodø/Glimt

Vålerenga

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bodø/Glimt

Vålerenga

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bodø/Glimt	Vålerenga
Points	56	26
xPoints	45.6	31.7
xG per match	3	1.7
xGA per match	0.93	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.47	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.3

Playing style	Bodø/Glimt	Vålerenga
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.35
Field tilt	0.83	0.5
xT per match	2.1	1.3
xTA per match	0.66	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	30	26
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.28
Entries into the box per match	29	16
Entries into the box against	9	17
Pass completion %	0.84	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.79	0.7
Passes per match	594	369
Passes against per match	299	381
Switches of play per match	43.9	24.2
Long balls per match	44	33

Set pieces	Bodø/Glimt	Vålerenga
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.03
Corners per match	7.6	6.9
Corners against per match	2.3	5.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.59	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.57

Other	Bodø/Glimt	Vålerenga
Throw-in control	0.75	0.73

The goalkeepers	Nikita Haikin (Bodø/Glimt)	Oscar Thore Hedvall (Vålerenga)
Saves	46	77
Save %	75%	63%
xG prevented	54%	46%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bodø/Glimt

Fixtures, form & tips

Vålerenga

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bodø/Glimt vs Vålerenga according to our model?

The model gives Bodø/Glimt a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bodø/Glimt 69%, draw 17%, Vålerenga 14%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Bodø/Glimt vs Vålerenga?

The model expects 2.49 goals (xG) for Bodø/Glimt and 1.02 for Vålerenga, 3.51 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Bodø/Glimt or draw (1X) 86%, Vålerenga or draw (X2) 31% and no draw (12) 83%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.