Brann vs Molde Prediction: Home win 44% (24 Oct 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien24 October 20269°27 km/h

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BrannPossession & high press

MoldePossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Brann (44%)

1 · Brann 44%X 22%33% Molde · 2

44%

22%

33%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Brann vs Molde (Norwegian Eliteserien, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Brann win 44%, draw 22%, Molde win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Brann 1.71, Molde 1.50. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%. Double chance: Brann or draw 67%, Molde or draw 56%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Brann – Molde

Marcus Johansson · 23 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The numbers present a compelling case: despite Molde's historical dominance in this fixture, Brann appears primed to challenge them. The model gives the hosts a 44% chance to win, with Molde at 33% — a clear lean toward Brann. Both teams deploy a high press and value possession, setting the stage for a potentially dynamic and open encounter. The match is projected to be tight, with expected goals close and the most likely outcomes clustered around narrow margins.

Brann's home advantage is significant. Winning 60% of their home matches historically suggests they are formidable hosts. However, Molde's recent form is daunting, having scored in 15 consecutive league games. This offensive consistency, coupled with their superior season-long xG and xGA, underscores why they currently hold the edge in underlying numbers, even if it doesn't fully explain their head-to-head record.

While Molde leads head-to-head with four wins out of five since 2021, the sample size is small and thus less predictive than current form and expected goals. Both teams to score is priced at 64%, reflecting the attacking strengths and vulnerabilities on both sides. The over 2.5 goals market sits at 62%, suggesting goals could flow given the attacking profiles and past high-scoring meetings, averaging 3.4 goals.

Brann's competitive edge may be their resilience at home, aligning with the model's probability favoring them. Yet, Molde's firepower ensures they remain a credible threat, which complicates a straightforward prediction. The match could sway either way, but a 2-1 scoreline in Brann's favor feels plausible, given their home strength and slight model lean.

For those seeking value, backing Brann with a narrow win at odds reflecting their model-favored 44% chance offers a potential edge. With both teams likely to score and the prospect of several goals, the matchup demands close attention.

Brann

Form LLWLL

League ranking xG #4xGA #8xT #2xP/match #11Points #7

Key players

Fredrik Pallesen KnudsenCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
Joachim SoltvedtLWBxG 0.21 · xT 0.42
Denzel De RoeveRBxG 0.10 · xT 0.33

Molde

Form WWLDW

League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #4xP/match #5Points #3

Key players

Eirik HestadRWxG 0.34 · xT 0.09
Daniel DagaCDMxG 0.23 · xT 0.05
Sivert Sira HansenCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Brann – Molde

Predicted score matrix

Molde →

Brann →

0–04.3%

0–15.8%

0–24.5%

0–32.3%

0–4+1.2%

1–06.6%

1–110.7%

1–27.8%

1–33.9%

1–4+2.0%

2–05.9%

2–18.8%

2–26.6%

2–33.3%

2–4+1.7%

3–03.4%

3–15.0%

3–23.8%

3–31.9%

3–4+1.0%

4+–02.1%

4+–13.2%

4+–22.4%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.2-27%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,71–1,50

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

–

Over 2,562%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Brann or draw (1X)66%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Brann or draw (1X)66%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Kristall Máni Ingason to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Eirik Hestad to score24%
Emil Varhaugvik Breivik to be booked21%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Brann 1Draw 0Molde 4

Goals: 4–13 (⌀ 3,4)

Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

Key facts

Molde dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.4 goals per meeting on average.
Molde have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.
Brann win 60% of their home matches all-time (42 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Brann

Molde

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Brann (40–37)

Molde (52–35)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Brann

Molde

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Brann

Molde

The teams in numbers

Performance	Brann	Molde
Points	29	40
xPoints	28.1	35.9
xG per match	1.9	2
xGA per match	1.7	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.38	0.32
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.3

Playing style	Brann	Molde
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.34
Field tilt	0.67	0.63
xT per match	1.7	1.3
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	30	26
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.27
Entries into the box per match	23	17
Entries into the box against	14	13
Pass completion %	0.77	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.76
Passes per match	450	489
Passes against per match	273	308
Switches of play per match	29	26.4
Long balls per match	37	32

Set pieces	Brann	Molde
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.1
Corners per match	6.9	5.5
Corners against per match	5	4.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.57

Other	Brann	Molde
Throw-in control	0.71	0.72

The goalkeepers	Mathias Dyngeland (Brann)	Albert Posiadała (Molde)
Saves	40	48
Save %	66%	64%
xG prevented	45%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Brann

Fixtures, form & tips

Molde

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Brann vs Molde according to our model?

The model gives Brann a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brann 44%, draw 22%, Molde 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Brann vs Molde?

The model expects 1.71 goals (xG) for Brann and 1.50 for Molde, 3.21 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Brann or draw (1X) 67%, Molde or draw (X2) 56% and no draw (12) 78%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.