Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg Prediction: Away win 42% (24 Oct 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien24 October 20269°7,8 mm26 km/h

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FredrikstadBalanced & physical

RosenborgCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Rosenborg (42%)

1 · Fredrikstad 33%X 25%42% Rosenborg · 2

33%

25%

42%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg (Norwegian Eliteserien, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Fredrikstad win 33%, draw 25%, Rosenborg win 42%. Expected goals (xG): Fredrikstad 1.45, Rosenborg 1.61. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Fredrikstad or draw 58%, Rosenborg or draw 67%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Fredrikstad – Rosenborg

Anna Karlsson · 23 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The odds of 2.05 with Bet365 for over 2.5 goals are not supported by the provided facts and appear fabricated.

Corrected text:

Rosenborg's recent form, coupled with their historical dominance over Fredrikstad, sets the stage for another likely victory. The visitors have not only scored in 13 straight league matches but also remain unbeaten in their last five. This consistency places them in a favorable position against a Fredrikstad side that has yet to triumph in their last five encounters, albeit the head-to-head sample is small and less telling than the current form.

Fredrikstad, despite showing resilience by scoring in their last nine league games, face a formidable challenge. They hold a mere 33% chance of winning according to model probabilities, overshadowed by Rosenborg's 42%. The hosts' expected goals of 1.45 contrast with the visitors' 1.61, underlining Rosenborg's attacking edge. The expected rain could impact the flow, but these factors are already considered in the model's numbers.

The betting angle centers on Rosenborg's advantage, both statistically and historically. The most likely scoreline points towards a 1-1 draw at 11%, but at 9%, a 1-2 victory for Rosenborg closely follows, backed by their superior xG and attacking prowess. With the over 2.5 goals probability at 59%, there's value in betting on a high-scoring affair.

Fredrikstad

Form LDDDL

League ranking xG #14xGA #13xT #12xP/match #16Points #8

Key players

Rocco SheinCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.10
Fredrik HolmeCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.08
Max Mattias NilssonCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.10

Rosenborg

Form WWWDW

League ranking xG #5xGA #5xT #7xP/match #4Points #5

Key players

Emil Konradsen CeideLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.19
Mikkel Konradsen CeideCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
Tomas NemcikCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Fredrikstad – Rosenborg

Predicted score matrix

Rosenborg →

Fredrikstad →

0–05.0%

0–17.2%

0–26.1%

0–33.3%

0–4+1.9%

1–06.5%

1–111.3%

1–28.8%

1–34.8%

1–4+2.8%

2–04.9%

2–17.9%

2–26.4%

2–33.4%

2–4+2.0%

3–02.4%

3–13.8%

3–23.1%

3–31.7%

3–4+1.0%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

1,45–1,61

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

–

Over 2,559%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Rosenborg or draw (X2)66%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Rosenborg or draw (X2)66%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Emil Konradsen Ceïde to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Emil Konradsen Ceïde to score20%
Tomáš Nemčík to be booked19%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Fredrikstad 0Draw 2Rosenborg 3

Goals: 3–10 (⌀ 2,6)

Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

Key facts

Rosenborg dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
Fredrikstad have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Rosenborg are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Rosenborg have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fredrikstad

Rosenborg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Fredrikstad (28–36)

Rosenborg (43–31)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fredrikstad

Rosenborg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fredrikstad

Rosenborg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fredrikstad	Rosenborg
Points	29	37
xPoints	24.3	36.3
xG per match	1.2	1.8
xGA per match	1.9	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.3

Playing style	Fredrikstad	Rosenborg
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.33
Field tilt	0.44	0.56
xT per match	0.95	1.1
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	24	28
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.3
Entries into the box per match	12	16
Entries into the box against	15	14
Pass completion %	0.78	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.7
Passes per match	407	391
Passes against per match	424	344
Switches of play per match	28.3	22.8
Long balls per match	37	28

Set pieces	Fredrikstad	Rosenborg
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.05
Corners per match	4.2	6.2
Corners against per match	5.9	5.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.6

Other	Fredrikstad	Rosenborg
Throw-in control	0.74	0.71

The goalkeepers	Martin Borsheim (Fredrikstad)	Leopold Wahlstedt (Rosenborg)
Saves	74	78
Save %	68%	72%
xG prevented	41%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Fredrikstad

Fixtures, form & tips

Rosenborg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg according to our model?

The model gives Rosenborg a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fredrikstad 33%, draw 25%, Rosenborg 42%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?

The model expects 1.45 goals (xG) for Fredrikstad and 1.61 for Rosenborg, 3.06 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Fredrikstad or draw (1X) 58%, Rosenborg or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.