Kristiansund vs KFUM Prediction: Home win 39% (25 Oct 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien25 October 202610°0,5 mm39 km/h

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KristiansundLow block & direct

KFUMLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Kristiansund (39%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.05 (+7 %)

1 · Kristiansund 39%X 27%33% KFUM · 2

39%

27%

33%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Kristiansund vs KFUM (Norwegian Eliteserien, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Kristiansund win 39%, draw 27%, KFUM win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Kristiansund 1.28, KFUM 1.31. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Kristiansund or draw 67%, KFUM or draw 61%. Prediction updated Sunday, 18 October 2026.

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Analysis: Kristiansund – KFUM

Marcus Johansson · 22 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Both Kristiansund and KFUM employ a low-defence, direct style of play, setting the stage for a matchup that could hinge on counterattacks and rapid transitions. The model gives a slight nod to Kristiansund with a 39% win probability, but the visitors are not far off at 33%. This tension between the teams' similar styles may lead to a tightly contested game where the finer margins decide the outcome.

The historical edge belongs to KFUM, having won two of their last five meetings since 2021. However, such a small sample size does little to overshadow the current form and expected goals metrics, which favor neither team significantly. Kristiansund's recent struggles, marked by four consecutive losses, highlight their vulnerability despite the narrow edge in model probability. On paper, both sides are evenly matched in terms of xG (1.1 per match each), suggesting the game might be decided by individual brilliance or a defensive lapse.

With an expected goals tally nearly equal for both sides (Kristiansund 1.28, KFUM 1.31), and the most likely scorelines hinting at a 1-1 draw at 13%, this fixture could very well end in a stalemate. The over/under 2.5 goal probabilities sit at 48%, indicating no strong lean towards either side of the line. While previous encounters have averaged 3.0 goals per match, the defensive frailties may not translate to a high-scoring affair this time, especially considering the current tactical and form landscape.

For those seeking betting angles, the under 2.5 goals at 2.05 odds with both LeoVegas and Nordicbet presents a compelling opportunity, boasting a 7% edge according to the model. Furthermore, the under 1.5 goals at 4.0 odds with Nordicbet carries a 6% edge, offering another intriguing option for those anticipating a low-scoring clash.

Kristiansund

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #14xT #16xP/match #12Points #15

Key players

Leander AlvheimFxG 0.37 · xT 0.01
Dan Peter UlvestadCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
Heine Gikling BrusethCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.05

KFUM

Form LWWWD

League ranking xG #15xGA #10xT #14xP/match #10Points #9

Key players

Teodor Berg HaltvikFxG 0.37 · xT 0.07
Bilal NjieLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.07
Magnus Wolff EikremFxG 0.14 · xT 0.29

Match prediction: Kristiansund – KFUM

Predicted score matrix

KFUM →

Kristiansund →

0–07.9%

0–19.5%

0–26.4%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.2%

1–09.2%

1–113.0%

1–28.2%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.2%

2–18.1%

2–25.3%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.6%

3–13.4%

3–22.3%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.5%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,28–1,31

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@2.05EV+5%

Over 2,548%

@1.81

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Kristiansund or draw (1X)63%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Kristiansund or draw (1X)63%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Leander Næss Alvheim to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Leander Næss Alvheim to score34%
Robin Gravli Rasch to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.552% probability@2.05LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
Under 2.552% probability@2.05NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
Under 2.552% probability@2.04PinnacleEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Kristiansund	X	2 · KFUM
Betsafe	2.38	3.40	2.92
LeoVegas	2.30	3.40	2.85
Nordicbet	2.40	3.45	2.95
Pinnacle	2.39	3.41	2.97

Odds updated 24 Oct, 08:37

Odds movement

10 %

42 %37 %

2.39 → 2.39

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.41 → 3.41

20 %

35 %30 %

2.97 → 2.97

Over 2,50 %

56 %51 %

1.80 → 1.81

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Kristiansund 1Draw 2KFUM 2

Goals: 5–10 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

Key facts

KFUM dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
Kristiansund have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kristiansund

KFUM

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kristiansund (23–47)

KFUM (28–37)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kristiansund

KFUM

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kristiansund

KFUM

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kristiansund	KFUM
Points	19	29
xPoints	27.6	28.3
xG per match	1.1	1.1
xGA per match	2	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.24

Playing style	Kristiansund	KFUM
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.35
Field tilt	0.36	0.39
xT per match	0.73	0.87
xTA per match	1.6	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	25	22
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.25
Entries into the box per match	10	12
Entries into the box against	17	18
Pass completion %	0.74	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.7
Passes per match	311	323
Passes against per match	451	449
Switches of play per match	25.4	18.6
Long balls per match	34	28

Set pieces	Kristiansund	KFUM
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.03
Corners per match	4.1	4.1
Corners against per match	6.7	5.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.69	0.52

Other	Kristiansund	KFUM
Throw-in control	0.66	0.72

The goalkeepers	Michael Lansing (Kristiansund)	Emil Ødegaard (KFUM)
Saves	46	42
Save %	64%	74%
xG prevented	51%	56%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Kristiansund

Fixtures, form & tips

KFUM

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kristiansund vs KFUM according to our model?

The model gives Kristiansund a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kristiansund 39%, draw 27%, KFUM 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Kristiansund vs KFUM?

The model expects 1.28 goals (xG) for Kristiansund and 1.31 for KFUM, 2.59 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Kristiansund or draw (1X) 67%, KFUM or draw (X2) 61% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.