Molde vs Fredrikstad Prediction: Home win 62% (25 Oct 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien25 October 202611°0,1 mm31 km/h

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MoldePossession & high press

FredrikstadBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Molde (62%)Best value by the model: 2 · Fredrikstad @ 6.15 (+3 %)

1 · Molde 62%X 21%17% Fredrikstad · 2

62%

21%

17%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Molde vs Fredrikstad (Norwegian Eliteserien, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Molde win 62%, draw 21%, Fredrikstad win 17%. Expected goals (xG): Molde 2.22, Fredrikstad 1.18. Most likely score: 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Molde or draw 83%, Fredrikstad or draw 38%. Prediction updated Sunday, 18 October 2026.

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Analysis: Molde – Fredrikstad

Oscar Nilsson · 22 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

A 62% probability backs Molde as the firm favorite against Fredrikstad, with the most likely scoreline at 2-1. The hosts' form is solid, having scored in 15 consecutive league matches, while the visitors have found the net in their last nine. Molde’s possession-based high press should dominate against Fredrikstad's balanced, physical approach, especially given the xG disparity: 2.0 for Molde to 1.2 for Fredrikstad.

Molde’s home advantage is clear, winning 57% of their matches at home. Despite a small head-to-head sample showing mixed results, the statistical edge leans heavily towards the hosts, both in points (40 vs 29) and expected points (35.9 vs 24.3). The model’s expected goals reflect this domination, predicting Molde to create nearly double the chances. The game leans towards over 2.5 goals (66%) with a high likelihood of both teams scoring (62%).

For those looking for value, the draw at odds 4.9 with Nordicbet represents a 2% edge, a slight discrepancy with the model's 21% probability. While Molde is poised to win, these odds suggest a draw isn’t entirely off the cards, especially with Fredrikstad's recent scoring streak.

Molde

Form WWLDW

League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #4xP/match #5Points #3

Key players

Eirik HestadRWxG 0.34 · xT 0.09
Daniel DagaCDMxG 0.23 · xT 0.05
Sivert Sira HansenCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.12

Fredrikstad

Form LDDDL

League ranking xG #14xGA #13xT #12xP/match #16Points #8

Key players

Rocco SheinCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.10
Fredrik HolmeCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.08
Max Mattias NilssonCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Molde – Fredrikstad

Predicted score matrix

Fredrikstad →

Molde →

0–03.6%

0–13.7%

0–22.3%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.3%

1–07.1%

1–19.0%

1–25.2%

1–32.0%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.2%

2–19.7%

2–25.7%

2–32.3%

2–4+0.9%

3–06.1%

3–17.2%

3–24.2%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.6%

4+–05.7%

4+–16.7%

4+–24.0%

4+–31.6%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.1-19%
3.2-08%
4.3-17%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

2,22–1,18

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

219%

322%

419%

5+26%

Under 2,534%

@2.80

Over 2,566%

@1.45

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Molde to win62%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Molde to win62%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Eirik Hestad to score35%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Eirik Hestad to score35%
Fredrik Holme to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Fredrikstad17% probability@6.15PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
X · Draw21% probability@4.90NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
X · Draw21% probability@4.86PinnacleEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Molde	X	2 · Fredrikstad
Betsafe	1.47	EV+ 0% 4.80	5.90
LeoVegas	1.44	4.75	5.60
Nordicbet	1.48	EV+ 2% 4.90	EV+ 1% 6.00
Pinnacle	1.46	EV+ 2% 4.86	EV+ 3% 6.15

Odds updated 24 Oct, 09:37

Odds movement

10 %

68 %63 %

1.46 → 1.46

X0 %

22 %17 %

4.86 → 4.86

20 %

18 %13 %

6.15 → 6.15

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Molde 1Draw 1Fredrikstad 2

Goals: 9–7 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

Key facts

Molde have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.
Fredrikstad have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Molde win 57% of their home matches all-time (42 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Molde

Fredrikstad

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Molde (52–35)

Fredrikstad (28–36)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Molde

Fredrikstad

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Molde

Fredrikstad

The teams in numbers

Performance	Molde	Fredrikstad
Points	40	29
xPoints	35.9	24.3
xG per match	2	1.2
xGA per match	1.3	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.32	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.32

Playing style	Molde	Fredrikstad
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.36
Field tilt	0.63	0.44
xT per match	1.3	0.95
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	26	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.28
Entries into the box per match	17	12
Entries into the box against	13	15
Pass completion %	0.81	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.73
Passes per match	489	407
Passes against per match	308	424
Switches of play per match	26.4	28.3
Long balls per match	32	37

Set pieces	Molde	Fredrikstad
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.06
Corners per match	5.5	4.2
Corners against per match	4.5	5.9
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.51

Other	Molde	Fredrikstad
Throw-in control	0.72	0.74

The goalkeepers	Albert Posiadała (Molde)	Martin Borsheim (Fredrikstad)
Saves	48	74
Save %	64%	68%
xG prevented	49%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Molde

Fixtures, form & tips

Fredrikstad

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Molde vs Fredrikstad according to our model?

The model gives Molde a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Molde 62%, draw 21%, Fredrikstad 17%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Molde vs Fredrikstad?

The model expects 2.22 goals (xG) for Molde and 1.18 for Fredrikstad, 3.41 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Molde or draw (1X) 83%, Fredrikstad or draw (X2) 38% and no draw (12) 79%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.