Sarpsborg vs Aalesund Prediction: Home win 51% (25 Oct 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien25 October 20268°29,8 mm34 km/h

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SarpsborgCounter-attacks & crosses

AalesundLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Sarpsborg (51%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.10 (+13 %)

1 · Sarpsborg 51%X 25%25% Aalesund · 2

51%

25%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sarpsborg vs Aalesund (Norwegian Eliteserien, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Sarpsborg win 51%, draw 25%, Aalesund win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Sarpsborg 1.87, Aalesund 1.42. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%. Double chance: Sarpsborg or draw 75%, Aalesund or draw 49%. Prediction updated Sunday, 18 October 2026.

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Analysis: Sarpsborg – Aalesund

Erik Lindberg · 22 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

The matchup between Sarpsborg and Aalesund is a tale of contrasting styles and a small head-to-head sample that saw the hosts clinch a victory in their only recent meeting. While Sarpsborg leans heavily on counter-attacks and crosses, Aalesund prefers a low defensive block with direct play. The home side has a slight edge in points, sitting on 28 compared to the visitors' 24.

Looking at the expected goals, Sarpsborg leads with 1.87 against Aalesund's 1.42. The hosts also have a better xGA per match at 1.5, compared to Aalesund's leaky 2.1. Yet, Aalesund's potent streak of scoring in 16 consecutive league matches is hard to ignore. Despite their lower xPoints, Aalesund's consistent goal-scoring ability suggests they could breach Sarpsborg's defense at least once.

As for the goal market, the model points to a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals with both teams to score at 64%. However, the expected rain of 24.0 mm could dampen goal-scoring exploits, which the model has already considered. Most likely scorelines sway towards 1-1 and 2-1, indicating a closely contested affair with goals from both sides.

For bettors seeking value, there are opportunities in the under market. The under 2.5 goals at odds of 3.0 with Nordicbet offers a 9% edge, as the model rates this at 36%. Similarly, under 3.5 at 1.85 with Nordicbet presents an 8% edge. Given the potential impact of adverse weather conditions on the game flow, these value bets stand out as intriguing options.

Sarpsborg

Form DDLWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #6xT #8xP/match #6Points #10

Key players

Aimar SherCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
Sondre SorliRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.13
Bjørn Inge UtvikCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.14

Aalesund

Form WLWLW

League ranking xG #10xGA #16xT #9xP/match #9Points #14

Key players

Kristian Hemmingsen LonebuFxG 0.26 · xT 0.02
Mathias Minik Fals Schandorff ChristensenCMxG 0.18 · xT 0.11
Marcus Haagensen ReedFxG 0.48 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Sarpsborg – Aalesund

Predicted score matrix

Aalesund →

Sarpsborg →

0–04.0%

0–15.0%

0–23.8%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.9%

1–06.7%

1–110.2%

1–27.0%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.5%

2–19.3%

2–26.6%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.5%

3–04.1%

3–15.8%

3–24.1%

3–31.9%

3–4+0.9%

4+–02.9%

4+–14.1%

4+–22.9%

4+–31.4%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.1-07%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,87–1,42

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,536%

@3.10EV+11%

Over 2,564%

@1.38

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sarpsborg to win51%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sarpsborg to win51%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Daniel Seland Karlsbakk to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Daniel Seland Karlsbakk to score31%
Ólafur Andres Guomundsson to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.536% probability@3.10NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
Under 2.536% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
Under 3.558% probability@1.89PinnacleEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sarpsborg	X	2 · Aalesund
Betsafe	1.85	EV+ 0% 4.05	3.70
Nordicbet	1.88	EV+ 1% 4.10	3.75
Pinnacle	1.88	3.96	3.76

Odds updated 24 Oct, 06:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Aalesund win since 19 October — the odds have shortened from 4.17 to 3.76 (−10%).

1+6 %

55 %50 %

1.76 → 1.88

X-3 %

26 %21 %

4.07 → 3.96

2-10 %

27 %22 %

4.17 → 3.76

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 19/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Sarpsborg 1Draw 0Aalesund 0

Goals: 4–2 (⌀ 6)

Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

Key facts

Aalesund have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sarpsborg

Aalesund

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sarpsborg (28–34)

Aalesund (39–51)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sarpsborg

Aalesund

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sarpsborg

Aalesund

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sarpsborg	Aalesund
Points	28	24
xPoints	33.2	29.7
xG per match	1.5	1.5
xGA per match	1.5	2.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.38

Playing style	Sarpsborg	Aalesund
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.34
Field tilt	0.39	0.43
xT per match	1.1	1
xTA per match	1.2	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	23	25
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.25
Entries into the box per match	15	13
Entries into the box against	19	17
Pass completion %	0.74	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.69
Passes per match	332	304
Passes against per match	424	411
Switches of play per match	29.4	15.6
Long balls per match	35	26

Set pieces	Sarpsborg	Aalesund
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.04
Corners per match	5.3	5.3
Corners against per match	5.4	7.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.49	0.34
First touch, defensive corners %	0.68	0.5

Other	Sarpsborg	Aalesund
Throw-in control	0.73	0.68

The goalkeepers	Leander Oy (Sarpsborg)	Kristoffer Klaesson (Aalesund)
Saves	47	42
Save %	68%	69%
xG prevented	48%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sarpsborg

Fixtures, form & tips

Aalesund

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sarpsborg vs Aalesund according to our model?

The model gives Sarpsborg a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sarpsborg 51%, draw 25%, Aalesund 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Sarpsborg vs Aalesund?

The model expects 1.87 goals (xG) for Sarpsborg and 1.42 for Aalesund, 3.28 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Sarpsborg or draw (1X) 75%, Aalesund or draw (X2) 49% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.