Viking vs Tromsø Prediction: Home win 66% (25 Oct 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien25 October 202610°40,0 mm52 km/h

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VikingPossession & high press

TromsøPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Viking (66%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.72 (+2 %)

1 · Viking 66%X 19%15% Tromsø · 2

66%

19%

15%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Viking vs Tromsø (Norwegian Eliteserien, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Viking win 66%, draw 19%, Tromsø win 15%. Expected goals (xG): Viking 2.17, Tromsø 1.05. Most likely score: 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Viking or draw 85%, Tromsø or draw 34%. Prediction updated Sunday, 18 October 2026.

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Analysis: Viking – Tromsø

Marcus Johansson · 22 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Viking's relentless high press and possession game have been pivotal, fueling a streak of four consecutive wins. They head into this clash against Tromsø with a formidable 66% win probability, a testament to their home dominance, having won two-thirds of all matches played on their turf. The hosts have found the net in 12 straight league matches, which underscores their attacking potency. With a predicted xG of 2.17, their offensive threat is undeniable, especially against a Tromsø side that has struggled to contain such firepower.

Tromsø, on the other hand, might find their possession control strategy tested against Viking's pressing style. The visitors hold a slim 15% chance of victory, reflecting their vulnerability. Despite managing an xG of 1.8 per match, they face a defensive challenge against a Viking side that concedes just 1.3 xGA per game. Tromsø is clearly the underdog in this fixture.

The expected goals lean heavily towards Viking, suggesting scorelines like 2-1 or 2-0 are likely. Despite the model indicating a 62% chance for over 2.5 goals, the heavy rain forecast of 45.4 mm may suppress scoring chances, which might make Tromsø's task of breaching Viking's defense even tougher.

Given the model's numbers and current odds, there is a standout betting angle. Nordicbet offers under 2.5 goals at 2.72, with the model valuing it at 38%—a 2% edge. While the general expectation favors goals, the rain and Viking's home solidity could indeed keep the scoreline tighter than anticipated.

Viking

Form DWWWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #3xP/match #2Points #2

Key players

Henrik HeggheimRBxG 0.16 · xT 0.14
Gianni StensnessCBxG 0.23 · xT 0.10
Henrik FalchenerCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.05

Tromsø

Form LLWDD

League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #6xP/match #3Points #4

Key players

David EdvardssonCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
Leon HienCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.05
Vetle SkjærvikCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.20

Match prediction: Viking – Tromsø

Predicted score matrix

Tromsø →

Viking →

0–04.3%

0–13.9%

0–22.2%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.3%

1–08.4%

1–19.4%

1–24.8%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.4%

2–19.9%

2–25.2%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–06.8%

3–17.1%

3–23.8%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.4%

4+–06.1%

4+–16.4%

4+–23.4%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.2-09%
3.1-19%
4.1-08%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,17–1,05

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

@2.72EV+2%

Over 2,562%

@1.47

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Viking to win66%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Viking to win66%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Peter Buch Christiansen to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Peter Buch Christiansen to score33%
Tobias Kvalvågnes Guddal to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.538% probability@2.72NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
1 · Viking66% probability@1.55NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
Under 3.560% probability@1.69PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Viking	X	2 · Tromsø
Betsafe	EV+ 0% 1.52	4.60	5.45
LeoVegas	1.50	4.60	5.20
Nordicbet	EV+ 2% 1.55	4.65	5.50
Pinnacle	1.51	4.72	5.56

Odds updated 24 Oct, 08:37

Odds movement

1+2 %

66 %61 %

1.49 → 1.51

X-1 %

23 %18 %

4.77 → 4.72

2-4 %

19 %14 %

5.80 → 5.56

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Viking FK come into this round on 4 straight wins.
Viking FK have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
Viking FK win 66% of their home matches all-time (86 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Viking

Tromsø

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Viking (59–22)

Tromsø (42–31)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Viking

Tromsø

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Viking

Tromsø

The teams in numbers

Performance	Viking	Tromsø
Points	56	40
xPoints	40	36.5
xG per match	2.3	1.8
xGA per match	1.3	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.52	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.22

Playing style	Viking	Tromsø
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.31
Field tilt	0.56	0.5
xT per match	1.7	1.2
xTA per match	1	0.97
Won balls, offensive half	30	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.25
Entries into the box per match	18	16
Entries into the box against	13	13
Pass completion %	0.75	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.73
Passes per match	365	436
Passes against per match	378	427
Switches of play per match	26.6	22.9
Long balls per match	36	42

Set pieces	Viking	Tromsø
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.07
Corners per match	6.8	5.1
Corners against per match	5.5	4.2
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.53

Other	Viking	Tromsø
Throw-in control	0.73	0.76

The goalkeepers	Arild Ostbo (Viking)	Jakob Haugaard (Tromsø)
Saves	36	53
Save %	78%	68%
xG prevented	78%	46%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Viking

Fixtures, form & tips

Tromsø

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Viking vs Tromsø according to our model?

The model gives Viking a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Viking 66%, draw 19%, Tromsø 15%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Viking vs Tromsø?

The model expects 2.17 goals (xG) for Viking and 1.05 for Tromsø, 3.22 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Viking or draw (1X) 85%, Tromsø or draw (X2) 34% and no draw (12) 81%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.