01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Aberdeen or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
Scottish PremiershipPittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen10°2,6 mm25 km/h
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AberdeenCounter-attacks & crossesvs
St. JohnstonePossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Aberdeen (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · St. Johnstone @ 3.35 (+19 %)
Aberdeen vs St. Johnstone · Scottish Premiership
1 · Aberdeen 36%X 29%36% St. Johnstone · 2
36%
29%
36%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Aberdeen – St. Johnstone
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Three head-to-head matches since the start of 2023 might suggest Aberdeen holds a slight advantage with one win and two draws. However, such a small sample barely shifts the needle. Weighing more heavily in this scenario are the expected goals and points, which tip the balance toward St. Johnstone. The visitors have averaged 1.2 xG per match compared to Aberdeen's 0.99, and their xPoints of 8.9 eclipse the hosts' 7.6.
Aberdeen leans on counterattacking play and crosses, while St. Johnstone focuses on maintaining possession and applying a high press. This clash of styles often leads to tight encounters, with defenses holding firm. The model reflects this, showing a 50% chance for both teams to score and an under-2.5 goals probability at 56%. With Aberdeen's home advantage baked in, the most likely outcomes are either a 1-1 draw or a slender 1-0 win for the hosts.
Despite the model giving Aberdeen a slight edge, their 36% win probability mirrors that of St. Johnstone, hinting at an evenly balanced contest. The expected goals of 1.29 for Aberdeen against 1.14 for the visitors further highlight how finely poised this matchup is. The model's lean toward Aberdeen feels cautious rather than confident, especially given the underwhelming attacking metrics both teams share.
The model's most likely scoreline, a 1-1 draw, is priced at 13%. It's a cautious yet considered pick, echoing the sentiment that stable, well-reasoned bets pay the bills while the less informed chase the chimera of thrilling upsets.
AberdeenForm LLDWD
League ranking xG #10xGA #9xT #10xP/match #10Points #7
Key players
- Kevin Michael NisbetFxG 0.40 · xT 0.00
- Stuart ArmstrongCAMxG 0.03 · xT 0.10
- Ayoub MoulouaFxG 0.29 · xT 0.02
St. JohnstoneForm LDWLD
League ranking xG #9xGA #4xT #9xP/match #7Points #6
Key players
- Matthew Colin FouldsLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.20
- Enes AlićLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.18
- Zach MitchellCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: Aberdeen – St. Johnstone
Predicted score matrix
St. Johnstone →
Aberdeen →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.2%
0–19.6%
0–25.7%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–011.0%
1–113.3%
1–27.4%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–07.4%
2–18.4%
2–24.8%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.2%
3–13.6%
3–22.1%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.5%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,29–1,14
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@1.87EV+2%
Over 2,544%
@1.95
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Aberdeen or draw (1X)68%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Kevin Michael Nisbet to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Kevin Michael Nisbet to score32%
- Jason Derek Holt to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · St. Johnstone36% probability@3.35PinnacleEV+19%reference odds
- 2 · St. Johnstone36% probability@3.25BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
- 2 · St. Johnstone36% probability@3.25NordicbetEV+16%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Aberdeen | X | 2 · St. Johnstone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.12 | 3.30 | EV+ 16% 3.25 |
| LeoVegas | 2.15 | 3.35 | EV+ 10% 3.10 |
| Nordicbet | 2.12 | 3.30 | EV+ 16% 3.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.16 | 3.40 | EV+ 19% 3.35 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 15:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesAberdeen 1Draw 2St. Johnstone 0
Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 1,7)
Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Aberdeen
St. Johnstone
Aberdeen (7–8)
St. Johnstone (9–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Aberdeen
St. Johnstone
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Aberdeen
St. Johnstone
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Aberdeen | St. Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 8 |
| xPoints | 7.6 | 8.9 |
| xG per match | 0.99 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Aberdeen | St. Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.33 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.92 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 306 | 387 |
| Passes against per match | 410 | 395 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.6 | 22.3 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Aberdeen | St. Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.2 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.2 | 3.4 |
| Corners against per match | 7.2 | 6.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.28 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.5 |
| Other | Aberdeen | St. Johnstone |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Marius Müller (Aberdeen) | Toby Peter Gary Steward (St. Johnstone) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 31 | 29 |
| Save % | 80% | 78% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 61% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Aberdeen vs St. Johnstone according to our model?
The model gives Aberdeen a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Aberdeen 36%, draw 29%, St. Johnstone 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.