Hearts vs St. Mirren Prediction: Home win 66% (10 Oct 2026)

Scottish Premiership10 October 2026 16:00 CESTTynecastle Park, Edinburgh10°24 km/h

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HeartsPossession control

St. MirrenPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Hearts (66%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.52 (+12 %)

1 · Hearts 66%X 20%13% St. Mirren · 2

66%

20%

13%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Hearts – St. Mirren

Anna Karlsson · 2 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Hearts have the upper hand going into their match against St. Mirren, with a 66% chance of victory according to the model. This fixture looks like it could tilt toward the hosts, and not just because of their superior form. Hearts have scored in 15 consecutive league matches and boast a 66% winning rate at home, backed by a solid xG of 1.7 per match. In contrast, the visitors are struggling, coming off three consecutive losses, and generating only 1.4 xG per match.

Despite both teams favoring possession control, the hosts seem more adept at converting this style into tangible results. Hearts have a slight edge in points, xPoints, and a significantly better defensive record, conceding only 1.1 xGA per match compared to St. Mirren’s 1.7. These metrics suggest that the hosts are likely to control the tempo and create more opportunities, making a 2-0 or 1-0 scoreline—favored by the model—quite plausible.

The head-to-head record since 2023 is evenly split, with Hearts slightly ahead at three wins to St. Mirren’s two. However, with only six matches in the sample, this rivalry data weighs less than the current form and expected goals. Hearts' ability to find the net consistently, combined with St. Mirren's recent defensive struggles, points to a win for the hosts.

While the model gives a 55% chance for over 2.5 goals, the strongest betting angle here lies in the under markets. LeoVegas offers under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.45, providing a 9% edge. Given the control-oriented styles and St. Mirren’s recent form, there’s potential value in expecting a lower-scoring affair. If you're looking for a safer bet, under 3.5 and under 4.5 are also priced with positive expected value. This could well be a controlled match dominated by Hearts, where defense and possession dictate the outcome.

Hearts

Form WWWLD

League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #4xP/match #3Points #3

Key players

James WilsonFxG 0.40 · xT 0.02
Sabah KerjotaRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.07
Jordi AltenaRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04

St. Mirren

Form DWLLL

League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #6xP/match #6Points #5

Key players

Fraser TaylorCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.17
Eseosa SuleFxG 0.18 · xT 0.07
Ryan George CarrCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Hearts – St. Mirren

Predicted score matrix

St. Mirren →

Hearts →

0–05.8%

0–14.2%

0–21.8%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–011.2%

1–19.6%

1–23.8%

1–31.0%

1–4+0.2%

2–012.0%

2–19.7%

2–24.0%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–08.3%

3–16.8%

3–22.8%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–07.0%

4+–15.7%

4+–22.3%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-012%
2.1-011%
3.2-110%
4.1-110%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,08–0,81

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

@2.52EV+12%

Over 2,555%

@1.50

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hearts to win66%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hearts to win66%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Pierre Landry Kabore to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Pierre Landry Kabore to score26%
Paul Nsio to be booked26%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.545% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
Under 2.545% probability@2.52NordicbetEV+12%reference odds
Under 2.545% probability@2.50LeoVegasEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Hearts	X	2 · St. Mirren
Betsafe	1.45	4.30	6.30
LeoVegas	1.42	4.60	5.75
Nordicbet	1.45	4.30	6.30

Odds updated 4 Oct, 02:36

Odds movement

10 %

67 %62 %

1.42 → 1.42

X0 %

22 %17 %

4.60 → 4.60

20 %

18 %13 %

5.75 → 5.75

Over 2,5+2 %

65 %60 %

1.44 → 1.47

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Hearts 3Draw 1St. Mirren 2

Goals: 12–6 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
Hearts have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.
St. Mirren have lost 3 in a row.
Hearts win 66% of their home matches all-time (41 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Hearts

St. Mirren

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Hearts (14–8)

St. Mirren (8–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Hearts

St. Mirren

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Hearts

St. Mirren

The teams in numbers

Performance	Hearts	St. Mirren
Points	13	10
xPoints	11.4	9.8
xG per match	1.7	1.4
xGA per match	1.1	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.31

Playing style	Hearts	St. Mirren
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.37
Field tilt	0.61	0.46
xT per match	1.1	1
xTA per match	0.7	0.91
Won balls, offensive half	25	23
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.21
Entries into the box per match	14	13
Entries into the box against	10	14
Pass completion %	0.75	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.7
Passes per match	370	357
Passes against per match	289	383
Switches of play per match	39	23.5
Long balls per match	41	31

Set pieces	Hearts	St. Mirren
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.03
Corners per match	7.4	4.5
Corners against per match	3.4	7.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.75	0.52

Other	Hearts	St. Mirren
Throw-in control	0.77	0.71

The goalkeepers	Beau Reus (Hearts)	Jacob Anthony Chapman (St. Mirren)
Saves	9	26
Save %	56%	74%
xG prevented	26%	83%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Hearts

Fixtures, form & tips

St. Mirren

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Hearts vs St. Mirren according to our model?

The model gives Hearts a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hearts 66%, draw 20%, St. Mirren 13%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.