01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Falkirk or draw (1X)69%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
Scottish PremiershipFalkirk Stadium, Falkirk10°24 km/h
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FalkirkPossession controlvs
Dundee FCLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Falkirk (42%)Best value by the model: 2 · Dundee FC @ 3.59 (+18 %)
Falkirk vs Dundee FC · Scottish Premiership
1 · Falkirk 42%X 25%33% Dundee FC · 2
42%
25%
33%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Falkirk – Dundee FC
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Falkirk's possession-oriented style will be put to the test against Dundee's defensive rigidity and direct approach. The hosts will look to control the tempo, but their expected goals per match, a mere 0.92, suggests potential struggles breaking down the visitors' low block. Dundee, despite a recent head-to-head defeat, holds a small xG edge and thrives in counter-attacking situations, which could exploit any mistakes by Falkirk.
The numbers paint a tightly contested picture, with Falkirk slightly favored at 42% to win, compared to Dundee's 33%. However, the visitors hold statistical advantages in both points and xPoints this season, indicating that they might execute their tactical plan more effectively. The expected goals are relatively balanced, with Falkirk at 1.40 and Dundee at 1.17, hinting at a low-scoring affair, especially given the expected rain which tends to suppress goal-scoring opportunities.
Despite the small sample size of head-to-head matchups since 2023, where Falkirk leads 2-1, the historical edge carries less weight than current form. Dundee's xGA at 1.6, matching Falkirk's, suggests a robust defensive setup, likely making it difficult for the hosts to find the net. The model leans towards Falkirk overall, though the most probable single scoreline is a 1-1 draw, backed by a 13% likelihood.
For those seeking value, the under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.02 with LeoVegas stands out, offering a 6% edge according to the model. With goals likely at a premium and the tactical battle set to unfold, backing the under could be the sharpest play, where the conditions and playing styles both point towards a cautious, low-scoring match.
FalkirkForm LLDWD
League ranking xG #12xGA #8xT #11xP/match #9Points #11
Key players
- Jacob MurrellFxG 0.44 · xT -0.03
- Ryan StrainRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
- Deniss MeļņiksCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
Dundee FCForm WLDLW
League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #12xP/match #4Points #4
Key players
- Bradley Thomas FinkFxG 0.30 · xT -0.02
- Joseph BevanRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.12
- Joe WestleyLWxG 0.65 · xT 0.01
Match prediction: Falkirk – Dundee FC
Predicted score matrix
Dundee FC →
Falkirk →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.0%
0–18.6%
0–25.2%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.4%
1–112.9%
1–27.3%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.5%
2–18.8%
2–25.1%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–03.5%
3–14.1%
3–22.4%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–11.9%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,40–1,17
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,553%
@2.08EV+6%
Over 2,547%
@1.75
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Falkirk or draw (1X)69%
- Under 2.5 goals53%
- Ben Krauhaus to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Ben Krauhaus to score19%
- Finley Frank Barbrook to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Dundee FC33% probability@3.59PinnacleEV+18%reference odds
- 2 · Dundee FC33% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
- 2 · Dundee FC33% probability@3.45NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Falkirk | X | 2 · Dundee FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.02 | 3.40 | EV+ 14% 3.45 |
| LeoVegas | 2.05 | 3.45 | EV+ 5% 3.20 |
| Nordicbet | 2.02 | 3.40 | EV+ 14% 3.45 |
| Pinnacle | 2.02 | 3.56 | EV+ 18% 3.59 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 02:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesFalkirk 2Draw 0Dundee FC 1
Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 1,7)
Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Falkirk
Dundee FC
Falkirk (6–9)
Dundee FC (9–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Falkirk
Dundee FC
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Falkirk
Dundee FC
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Falkirk | Dundee FC |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 10 |
| xPoints | 7.8 | 11.1 |
| xG per match | 0.92 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.44 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Falkirk | Dundee FC |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.46 | 0.25 |
| xT per match | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 19 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| Passes per match | 322 | 239 |
| Passes against per match | 380 | 475 |
| Switches of play per match | 30 | 20.6 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Falkirk | Dundee FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 4.7 | 4.4 |
| Corners against per match | 6 | 7.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| Other | Falkirk | Dundee FC |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Scott Bain (Falkirk) | Owen Olamidayo Goodman (Dundee FC) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 30 | 27 |
| Save % | 77% | 79% |
| xG prevented | 67% | 55% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Falkirk vs Dundee FC according to our model?
The model gives Falkirk a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Falkirk 42%, draw 25%, Dundee FC 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.