01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Hibernian or draw (X2)67%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Scottish PremiershipTannadice Park, Dundee10°28 km/h
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Dundee UnitedPossession controlvs
HibernianPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Hibernian (41%)
Dundee United vs Hibernian · Scottish Premiership
1 · Dundee United 32%X 27%41% Hibernian · 2
32%
27%
41%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Dundee United – Hibernian
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
The text contains an unsupported claim not present in the facts: the specific betting odds "Pinnacle offers an enticing 2.45 on Hibernian to win." This detail is fabricated and should be removed.
Corrected text:
Dylan Levitt's orchestrations in midfield are crucial for Dundee United. The hosts rely heavily on controlled possession to set the tempo, but the numbers suggest a struggle against Hibernian's high press. With the visitors dominating this fixture, boasting three wins to one over the past seven meetings, United face an uphill battle. Hibernian's ability to disrupt rhythm and capitalize on turnovers could prove decisive.
Despite Dundee United's slight edge in points this season—eight to Hibernian's seven—the underlying metrics lean toward the visitors. Hibernian's expected points of 11.0 and an average xG of 1.8 per match suggest a team performing below potential, while United's xPoints sit at 8.8 with an xG of 1.7. This indicates that Hibernian is perhaps due for a turnaround. Factor in that they concede fewer expected goals per match (1.5) compared to Dundee United (1.8), and the scales tip further toward the visitors.
This fixture historically trends high-scoring, averaging 4.0 goals per game. The model pegs the likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 59%, with both teams to score at 62%. However, a small sample size of head-to-head matchups since 2023 tempers the weight of historical results. Still, the expected goals for both squads—1.44 for United and 1.64 for Hibernian—align with the potential for a goal-rich encounter.
In terms of betting value, the model's 41% probability lean toward Hibernian presents an opportunity worth considering, given the statistical edges and historical dominance. A 2-1 scoreline in favor of the visitors emerges as a plausible result, encapsulating both the high-scoring pattern and Hibernian's tactical advantage.
Dundee UnitedForm LWLDW
League ranking xG #5xGA #11xT #3xP/match #8Points #9
Key players
- Jesse Carmichael RandallRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.21
- Vicko SeveljCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
- Dylan TaitCDMxG 0.11 · xT 0.16
HibernianForm WLLLD
League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #7xP/match #5Points #10
Key players
- Jamie Terence McGrathLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.08
- Adam MayorLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.24
- Felix PasslackRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.27
Match prediction: Dundee United – Hibernian
Predicted score matrix
Hibernian →
Dundee United →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.9%
0–17.2%
0–26.2%
0–33.4%
0–4+2.0%
1
1–06.3%
1–111.2%
1–28.9%
1–34.9%
1–4+2.9%
2
2–04.8%
2–17.8%
2–26.4%
2–33.5%
2–4+2.1%
3
3–02.3%
3–13.8%
3–23.1%
3–31.7%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.9%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-17%
- 5.2-26%
Expected goals
1,44–1,64
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,541%
@2.25
Over 2,559%
@1.62
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Hibernian or draw (X2)67%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Josh Campbell to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Zachary Albert Sapsford to score30%
- Jacob Patrick John Devaney to be booked23%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Dundee United | X | 2 · Hibernian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.65 | 3.45 | 2.42 |
| LeoVegas | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| Nordicbet | 2.65 | 3.45 | 2.42 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 16:36
Odds movement
10 %
38 %33 %
2.60 → 2.60
X+1 %
29 %24 %
3.45 → 3.50
20 %
41 %36 %
2.38 → 2.38
Over 2,5+1 %
61 %56 %
1.55 → 1.57
LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
7 matchesDundee United 1Draw 3Hibernian 3
Goals: 12–16 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.
Key facts
- Hibernian dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 4.0 goals per meeting on average.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Dundee United
Hibernian
Dundee United (9–11)
Hibernian (8–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Dundee United
Hibernian
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Dundee United
Hibernian
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Dundee United | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 7 |
| xPoints | 8.8 | 11 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.12 |
| Playing style | Dundee United | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.83 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 332 | 377 |
| Passes against per match | 349 | 372 |
| Switches of play per match | 31.8 | 30.5 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Dundee United | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 6.1 | 7.5 |
| Corners against per match | 6.4 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| Other | Dundee United | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| The goalkeepers | Jack Walton (Dundee United) | Raphael Sallinger (Hibernian) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 24 | 24 |
| Save % | 69% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Dundee United vs Hibernian according to our model?
The model gives Hibernian a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dundee United 32%, draw 27%, Hibernian 41%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.