Rangers vs Kilmarnock Prediction: Home win 76% (10 Oct 2026)

Scottish Premiership10 October 2026 16:00 CESTIbrox Stadium, Glasgow10°0,6 mm23 km/h

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RangersCounter-attacks & crosses

KilmarnockLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Rangers (76%)Best value by the model: 2 · Kilmarnock @ 18.00 (+51 %)

1 · Rangers 76%X 15%8% Kilmarnock · 2

76%

15%

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Analysis: Rangers – Kilmarnock

Erik Lindberg · 2 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: In six recent encounters, Rangers have dominated Kilmarnock, winning five and losing just once. While the fixture has seen a high average of 4.3 goals, this small sample size weighs less than Rangers' formidable recent form. They've embarked on a five-game winning streak and have scored in 21 consecutive league matches. This offensive consistency aligns with their expected goals of 2.46 for the coming match, suggesting a clear advantage.

Kilmarnock's defensive vulnerabilities are clear, conceding an expected 2.4 goals per match. This contrasts sharply with Rangers' more robust defensive numbers. The visitors' style of low defence and direct play may struggle against the hosts' counter-attacking and crossing strategy. With Rangers boasting a significant edge in points (16 to 5) and expected points (12.7 to 6.5), the narrative aligns with the model's 76% win probability for the home side.

The weather forecast includes rain, which is already factored into the model's numbers. Despite a strong lean towards the over 2.5 goals at 62%, this inclination is tempered by the weather conditions.

For those seeking value, the under 3.5 goals option at odds of 1.92 with LeoVegas holds a 16% edge, according to the model. Given the expected weather and Kilmarnock's defensive posture, this outcome aligns with the most likely scorelines of 2-0 or 3-0. If you're inclined to take a risk, the draw at odds of 7.5 also presents a notable edge of 16%, but this feels more like a long shot given Rangers' momentum.

Rangers

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #2xP/match #2Points #2

Key players

Ryan Don NaderiFxG 0.62 · xT 0.08
Lawrence ShanklandFxG 0.57 · xT 0.07
Nicolas RaskinCMxG 0.25 · xT 0.08

Kilmarnock

Form LLDWD

League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #8xP/match #12Points #12

Key players

Greg KiltieRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.11
Joseph Brennen HugillFxG 0.21 · xT 0.00
George StangerCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Rangers – Kilmarnock

Predicted score matrix

Kilmarnock →

Rangers →

0–04.4%

0–12.8%

0–21.1%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–010.0%

1–17.6%

1–22.7%

1–30.6%

1–4+0.1%

2–012.6%

2–19.1%

2–23.3%

2–30.8%

2–4+0.2%

3–010.3%

3–17.4%

3–22.7%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.1%

4+–011.4%

4+–18.2%

4+–23.0%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-013%
2.3-010%
3.1-010%
4.2-19%
5.1-18%

Expected goals

2,46–0,72

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+22%

Under 2,538%

@3.35EV+28%

Over 2,562%

@1.29

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Rangers to win76%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Rangers to win76%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Djeidi Gassama to score40%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals62%
Djeidi Gassama to score40%
Thomas Richard Lowery to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Kilmarnock8% probability@18.00BetsafeEV+51%reference odds
2 · Kilmarnock8% probability@18.00NordicbetEV+51%reference odds
Under 2.538% probability@3.35BetsafeEV+28%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Rangers	X	2 · Kilmarnock
Betsafe	1.16	6.10	EV+ 51% 18.00
LeoVegas	1.13	EV+ 16% 7.50	EV+ 9% 13.00
Nordicbet	1.16	6.10	EV+ 51% 18.00

Odds updated 4 Oct, 16:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

83 %78 %

1.13 → 1.13

X0 %

15 %10 %

7.50 → 7.50

20 %

10 %5 %

13.00 → 13.00

Over 2,5+1 %

74 %69 %

1.27 → 1.29

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Rangers 5Draw 0Kilmarnock 1

Goals: 21–5 (⌀ 4,3)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Rangers dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 4.3 goals per meeting on average.
Rangers come into this round on 5 straight wins.
Rangers have scored in 21 consecutive league matches.
Rangers win 66% of their home matches all-time (41 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rangers

Kilmarnock

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rangers (8–4)

Kilmarnock (6–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rangers

Kilmarnock

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rangers

Kilmarnock

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rangers	Kilmarnock
Points	16	5
xPoints	12.7	6.5
xG per match	2.2	0.94
xGA per match	1	2.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.33	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.45

Playing style	Rangers	Kilmarnock
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.33
Field tilt	0.64	0.38
xT per match	1.3	0.92
xTA per match	0.67	1.7
Won balls, offensive half	30	23
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.2
Entries into the box per match	18	11
Entries into the box against	8	18
Pass completion %	0.74	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.66
Passes per match	366	303
Passes against per match	296	459
Switches of play per match	29.8	26.2
Long balls per match	39	33

Set pieces	Rangers	Kilmarnock
xG from free kicks	0.02	0
Corners per match	7.5	4.9
Corners against per match	4.6	6.9
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.6

Other	Rangers	Kilmarnock
Throw-in control	0.71	0.74

The goalkeepers	Ivor Pandur (Rangers)	Maksymilian Stryjek (Kilmarnock)
Saves	15	26
Save %	83%	67%
xG prevented	57%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Rangers

Fixtures, form & tips

Kilmarnock

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rangers vs Kilmarnock according to our model?

The model gives Rangers a 76% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rangers 76%, draw 15%, Kilmarnock 8%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.