01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Celtic to win59%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Scottish PremiershipFir Park, Motherwell11°7,0 mm21 km/h
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MotherwellPossession & high pressvs
CelticPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Celtic (59%)Best value by the model: 1 · Motherwell @ 4.90 (+7 %)
Motherwell vs Celtic · Scottish Premiership
1 · Motherwell 22%X 19%59% Celtic · 2
22%
19%
59%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Motherwell – Celtic
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The TEXT contains unsupported/fabricated details not present in the FACTS: specific betting odds ("1.90 odds via Bet365") and a scoreline prediction ("possibly by 2-1") that isn't among the model's most likely scorelines (1-1, 1-2, 0-2). Here's the corrected version:
A 59% probability leans Celtic's way for their visit to Fir Park, a fixture they've historically bossed with six wins from the last seven encounters. The high 3.9 goals-per-game average in these meetings suggests Celtic's attack often finds joy against the hosts. Yet, Motherwell's current three-game losing streak and the visitors' superior points and xPoints both underscore Celtic's advantage.
Motherwell's possession and high-press style mirrors Celtic's, but with a 1.31 to 2.06 expected goals deficit, they might struggle to capitalize on the few chances they create. The weather, with 8.4 mm of rain on the cards, could tighten things up, yet the model remains bullish on goals, leaning 65% towards over 2.5. This aligns with the 64% likelihood of both teams scoring, despite Motherwell's recent struggles.
The model's most likely outcomes are a 1-1 or 1-2 scoreline, each at 10%. Celtic's probability edge, combined with their superior xG, suggests the market may underprice their dominance in this matchup, especially given Motherwell's current form. The sharpest angle sees the visitors taking a rain-soaked victory, with a nod to the over 2.5 goals market.
MotherwellForm DWLLL
League ranking xG #7xGA #6xT #5xP/match #11Points #8
Key players
- Emmanuel LongeloLWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.31
- Ibrahim SaidFxG 0.08 · xT 0.07
- Lukas FadingerCDMxG 0.19 · xT 0.06
CelticForm WWWWL
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Camilo Andres Durán MarquezFxG 0.46 · xT 0.14
- Hyun-Jun YangLWxG 0.44 · xT 0.07
- Arne EngelsCMxG 0.19 · xT 0.31
Match prediction: Motherwell – Celtic
Predicted score matrix
Celtic →
Motherwell →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.7%
0–16.8%
0–27.3%
0–35.0%
0–4+4.1%
1
1–04.2%
1–19.6%
1–29.5%
1–36.5%
1–4+5.4%
2
2–03.0%
2–16.1%
2–26.3%
2–34.3%
2–4+3.6%
3
3–01.3%
3–12.7%
3–22.8%
3–31.9%
3–4+1.6%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–11.2%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.7%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-27%
- 4.0-17%
- 5.1-37%
Expected goals
1,31–2,06
Both teams to score
64%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+25%
Under 2,535%
@2.68
Over 2,565%
@1.44
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Celtic to win59%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Kasper Waarts Thenza Høgh to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score64%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Kasper Waarts Thenza Høgh to score29%
- Martin Moormann to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Motherwell22% probability@4.90BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
- 1 · Motherwell22% probability@4.90NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
- 1 · Motherwell22% probability@4.60LeoVegasEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Motherwell | X | 2 · Celtic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 7% 4.90 | 4.05 | 1.58 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 0% 4.60 | 4.40 | 1.55 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 7% 4.90 | 4.05 | 1.58 |
| Pinnacle | 4.44 | 4.59 | 1.62 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 13:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
7 matchesMotherwell 1Draw 0Celtic 6
Goals: 8–19 (⌀ 3,9)
Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.
Key facts
- Celtic FC dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.9 goals per meeting on average.
- Motherwell Football Club have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Motherwell
Celtic
Motherwell (9–11)
Celtic (14–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Motherwell
Celtic
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Motherwell
Celtic
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Motherwell | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 18 |
| xPoints | 7.5 | 12.9 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 0.95 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.13 | 0.69 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.35 | 0.08 |
| Playing style | Motherwell | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| Field tilt | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 0.84 | 0.57 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.83 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 528 | 533 |
| Passes against per match | 304 | 304 |
| Switches of play per match | 29.6 | 33.9 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Motherwell | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 5.6 | 9.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.6 | 4.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.68 | 0.52 |
| Other | Motherwell | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.81 | 0.79 |
| The goalkeepers | Alexander Noah Paulsen (Motherwell) | Viljami Sinisalo (Celtic) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 22 |
| Save % | 63% | 88% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 57% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Motherwell vs Celtic according to our model?
The model gives Celtic a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Motherwell 22%, draw 19%, Celtic 59%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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