01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Partizan Belgrade to win58%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Serbian Super LeaguePartizans stadion, Belgrad14°21 km/h
Läs på svenska
Partizan BelgradePossession control0–2
ČukaričkiLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Partizan Belgrade (58%)
Partizan Belgrade vs Čukarički · Serbian Super League
1 · Partizan Belgrade 58%X 24%18% Čukarički · 2
58%
24%
18%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Partizan Belgrade vs Čukarički (Serbian Super League, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Partizan Belgrade win 58%, draw 24%, Čukarički win 18%. Expected goals (xG): Partizan Belgrade 2.00, Čukarički 1.12. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Partizan Belgrade or draw 82%, Čukarički or draw 42%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Partizan Belgrade – Čukarički
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
FAKTA holds except for one unsupported claim: the text introduces a specific bookmaker odds figure ("Pinnacle offers 2.10 on a Partizan victory") that is not present in the FACTS. This should be removed.
Corrected text:
Partizan Belgrade enters the fray with a calculated possession game that stands in contrast to Čukarički's defensive and direct approach. Despite the visitors' current edge in points and expected points, the hosts hold a slight advantage in expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA). This hints at Partizan's ability to create and limit chances more effectively in comparison to their rivals.
Historically, Partizan has had the upper hand in this fixture, winning two of the last five meetings, though with a small sample size, this is less significant than current form. A draw or narrow victory for either side appears plausible given that both teams have similar xG figures per match. The model suggests a 58% chance of a Partizan victory, highlighting their potential to capitalize on their slight statistical advantages.
However, the expected goals data also foresees a closely contested battle. With expected goals of 2.00 for Partizan and 1.12 for Čukarički, the match could easily swing with a moment's brilliance or defensive lapse. The probability of over 2.5 goals sits at 60%, indicating that while goals are likely, the margin may not be large. Both teams scoring, at 58%, underscores the potential for action at both ends.
Čukarički's edge in points and xPoints highlights their current form, but Partizan's home advantage and possession-oriented style could prove pivotal. The model's most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 2-1, reflect this tension. Given these dynamics, a 2-1 win for Partizan seems the most plausible outcome, with a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals due to both teams' attacking capabilities.
With the hosts favored by the model, this presents an interesting angle for punters looking to back the home side's calculated strategy and historical strength in this matchup.
Partizan BelgradeForm LLDWL
League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #4xP/match #11Points #10
Key players
- Milan RoganovićRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.21
- Milan VukotićCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.26
- Zubairu IbrahimLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.02
ČukaričkiForm LDLDW
League ranking xG #9xGA #11xT #11xP/match #8Points #7
Key players
- Karel MustmaaCAMxG 0.24 · xT 0.13
- Marko DocićFxG 0.17 · xT 0.06
- Uroš MiladinovićCAMxG 0.39 · xT 0.16
Final score
0 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Partizan Belgrade 58% · Draw 24% · Čukarički 18%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - FK Partizan BeogradBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,39fair 5,13-14 %
MissMatchresultat - CukarickiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 12,30fair 16,42-25 %
MissMatch prediction: Partizan Belgrade – Čukarički
Predicted score matrix
Čukarički →
Partizan Belgrade →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.7%
0–14.7%
0–22.8%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–08.6%
1–110.2%
1–25.5%
1–32.1%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–08.8%
2–19.9%
2–25.5%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–05.9%
3–16.6%
3–23.7%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–04.7%
4+–15.2%
4+–22.9%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.2-09%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,00–1,12
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
@2.40
Over 2,560%
@1.60
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Partizan Belgrade to win58%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Milan Aleksić to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Milan Aleksić to score32%
- Marko Docić to be booked24%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Partizan Belgrade | X | 2 · Čukarički |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| Betfair Exchange | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| Betsafe | 1.60 | 3.85 | 4.60 |
| LeoVegas | 1.60 | 3.80 | 4.45 |
| Nordicbet | 1.60 | 3.85 | 4.60 |
| Paddy Power | 1.61 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 3.92 | 4.57 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 10:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Čukarički win since 22 October — the odds have shortened from 5.00 to 4.57 (−9%).
1+5 %
60 %55 %
1.52 → 1.61
X-6 %
25 %20 %
4.17 → 3.92
2-9 %
22 %17 %
5.00 → 4.57
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesPartizan Belgrade 2Draw 2Čukarički 1
Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- FK Partizan Belgrade dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
- FK Partizan Belgrade win 58% of their home matches all-time (43 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Partizan Belgrade
Čukarički
Partizan Belgrade (18–20)
Čukarički (17–20)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Partizan Belgrade
Čukarički
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Partizan Belgrade
Čukarički
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Partizan Belgrade | Čukarički |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 15 |
| xPoints | 12.8 | 18.1 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.12 | 0.4 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| Playing style | Partizan Belgrade | Čukarički |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.65 | 0.38 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.69 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| Passes per match | 401 | 263 |
| Passes against per match | 245 | 371 |
| Switches of play per match | 34.4 | 20 |
| Long balls per match | 51 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Partizan Belgrade | Čukarički |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 5.5 | 3.6 |
| Corners against per match | 2.7 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.3 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.44 |
| Other | Partizan Belgrade | Čukarički |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Miloš Krunić (Partizan Belgrade) | Vladan Carapic (Čukarički) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 26 |
| Save % | 56% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 28% | 34% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Partizan Belgrade vs Čukarički according to our model?
The model gives Partizan Belgrade a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Partizan Belgrade 58%, draw 24%, Čukarički 18%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Partizan Belgrade vs Čukarički?
The model expects 2.00 goals (xG) for Partizan Belgrade and 1.12 for Čukarički, 3.12 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Partizan Belgrade or draw (1X) 82%, Čukarički or draw (X2) 42% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.