01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Red Star Belgrade to win69%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Serbian Super League12°11 km/h
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OFK BeogradPossession controlvs
Red Star BelgradePossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Red Star Belgrade (69%)
OFK Beograd vs Red Star Belgrade · Serbian Super League
1 · OFK Beograd 11%X 20%69% Red Star Belgrade · 2
20%
69%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for OFK Beograd vs Red Star Belgrade (Serbian Super League, Sunday, 25 October 2026): OFK Beograd win 11%, draw 20%, Red Star Belgrade win 69%. Expected goals (xG): OFK Beograd 0.92, Red Star Belgrade 2.26. Most likely score: 0-2 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: OFK Beograd or draw 31%, Red Star Belgrade or draw 89%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: OFK Beograd – Red Star Belgrade
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
With Red Star Belgrade's impressive form and OFK Beograd's possession-centric approach, the numbers set the stage for a match dominated by the visitors. Red Star, on a sensational five-game winning streak, has shown a knack for controlling games with high pressing and efficient possession. Meanwhile, OFK Beograd's strategy of maintaining the ball has not translated into results, as evidenced by their modest xPoints and overall league standing.
The historical edge heavily favors Red Star, who have emerged victorious in five of their last six encounters with OFK Beograd. Although the small sample size tempers the head-to-head significance, Red Star's superior xG of 2.6 per match dwarfs OFK Beograd's 1.0. This disparity suggests a likelihood of Red Star capitalizing on scoring opportunities, a hypothesis supported by their expected goals tally.
The probability models lean strongly towards a Red Star victory, with a 69% chance of them taking home the three points. When combined with the high-scoring average of this fixture (5.0 goals per game), the model further supports an over 2.5 goals lean at 62%. This aligns with the probability of both teams finding the net (54%), hinting at a dynamic clash despite OFK's struggles.
In terms of likely outcomes, a 0-2 Red Star win dominates the expectation at 11%. This result reflects both teams' tendencies: Red Star's offensive prowess and OFK's defensive vulnerabilities, evident from their xGA of 1.4 compared to Red Star's mere 0.64.
OFK BeogradForm DLLDD
League ranking xG #12xGA #10xT #12xP/match #13Points #11
Key players
- Sergio Fernando Peña FloresCDMxG 0.13 · xT 0.10
- Aleksej VukičevićCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
- Andrej PavlovićCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
Red Star BelgradeForm WWWWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Aleksandar KataiFxG 0.74 · xT 0.16
- Franklin Tebo UchennaCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
- Derrick LuckassenLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: OFK Beograd – Red Star Belgrade
Predicted score matrix
Red Star Belgrade →
OFK Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.4%
0–19.2%
0–210.6%
0–38.0%
0–4+7.7%
1
1–03.6%
1–18.9%
1–29.8%
1–37.4%
1–4+7.1%
2
2–01.8%
2–14.0%
2–24.5%
2–33.4%
2–4+3.2%
3
3–00.5%
3–11.2%
3–21.4%
3–31.0%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–00.1%
4+–10.3%
4+–20.4%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-211%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.1-19%
- 5.0-38%
Expected goals
0,92–2,26
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
–
Over 2,562%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Red Star Belgrade to win69%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Aleksandar Katai to score40%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Aleksandar Katai to score40%
- Edmund Addo to be booked24%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesOFK Beograd 1Draw 0Red Star Belgrade 5
Goals: 9–21 (⌀ 5)
Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Red Star Belgrade dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 5.0 goals per meeting on average.
- Red Star Belgrade come into this round on 5 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
OFK Beograd
Red Star Belgrade
OFK Beograd (14–22)
Red Star Belgrade (32–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
OFK Beograd
Red Star Belgrade
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
OFK Beograd
Red Star Belgrade
The teams in numbers
| Performance | OFK Beograd | Red Star Belgrade |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 34 |
| xPoints | 12.9 | 24.7 |
| xG per match | 1 | 2.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 0.64 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.36 | 0.1 |
| Playing style | OFK Beograd | Red Star Belgrade |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.53 | 0.74 |
| xT per match | 0.88 | 1.9 |
| xTA per match | 0.95 | 0.69 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.79 |
| Passes per match | 323 | 496 |
| Passes against per match | 266 | 253 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.2 | 39.1 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 44 |
| Set pieces | OFK Beograd | Red Star Belgrade |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 3.3 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 3.9 | 3 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| Other | OFK Beograd | Red Star Belgrade |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.86 |
| The goalkeepers | Vuk Draškić (OFK Beograd) | Matheus Lima Magalhães (Red Star Belgrade) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 26 |
| Save % | 58% | 90% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 68% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- IMT – Železničar Pančevo23 October 2026
- Radnički Niš – Novi Pazar23 October 2026 18:00 CEST
- Radnički 1923 – Radnik Surdulica23 October 2026 18:00 CEST
- Zemun – Mačva Šabac23 October 2026 18:00 CEST
- Partizan Belgrade – Čukarički24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Mladost Lučani – Vojvodina24 October 2026 18:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins OFK Beograd vs Red Star Belgrade according to our model?
The model gives Red Star Belgrade a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: OFK Beograd 11%, draw 20%, Red Star Belgrade 69%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in OFK Beograd vs Red Star Belgrade?
The model expects 0.92 goals (xG) for OFK Beograd and 2.26 for Red Star Belgrade, 3.18 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
OFK Beograd or draw (1X) 31%, Red Star Belgrade or draw (X2) 89% and no draw (12) 80%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.