01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Novi Pazar or draw (X2)68%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Serbian Super LeagueStadion Čair, Niš11°2,4 mm16 km/h
Läs på svenska
Radnički NišPossession control0–2
Novi PazarPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Novi Pazar (38%)
Radnički Niš vs Novi Pazar · Serbian Super League
1 · Radnički Niš 31%X 30%38% Novi Pazar · 2
31%
30%
38%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Radnički Niš vs Novi Pazar (Serbian Super League, Friday, 23 October 2026): Radnički Niš win 31%, draw 30%, Novi Pazar win 38%. Expected goals (xG): Radnički Niš 1.18, Novi Pazar 1.34. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Radnički Niš or draw 62%, Novi Pazar or draw 69%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Radnički Niš – Novi Pazar
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
In the small sample of head-to-head matchups since 2023, Novi Pazar has a slight upper hand against Radnički Niš with two wins, one draw, and one loss. While this record offers some insight, the more compelling narrative emerges from the current form and underlying metrics. Niš finds themselves in a rut, having lost three consecutive games. This contrasts sharply with the visitors’ more robust form, underlined by their superior points tally of 13 compared to Niš's 8.
Digging deeper into the expected goals tells a similar story. The hosts come in with 1.18 xG, slightly lagging behind Novi Pazar's 1.34 xG. More concerning for Niš is their leaky defense, allowing 1.5 xGA per match against Pazar's more disciplined 1.2 xGA. These metrics suggest that Novi Pazar has both the offensive edge and the defensive solidity to capitalize on their current momentum.
The model leans toward a narrow away win, with a 38% probability for Novi Pazar, a slight but meaningful preference when compared to the home side’s 31%. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 0-1, hint at a tight affair, yet the bookmakers appear to undervalue the visitors. Odds of 2.8 with Betsafe and Nordicbet offer a 7% value advantage, while 2.75 with LeoVegas offers a 6% edge, both aligning with the model's assessment of value on the away side.
In terms of goals, the weather could play a subtle role, with expected rain potentially dampening attacking verve and goal-scoring opportunities. This supports the model's moderate 46% chance of over 2.5 goals. Expect a tactical and cautious game with a 1-0 victory for Novi Pazar, making the away win at favorable odds the standout betting angle.
Radnički NišForm LWLLL
League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #10xP/match #12Points #14
Key players
- Issah AbassLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.22
- Uroš VitasCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.06
- Radomir MilosavljevićCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
Novi PazarForm WDDLL
League ranking xG #6xGA #5xT #6xP/match #6Points #9
Key players
- Adem Bojan LjajićCMxG 0.23 · xT 0.23
- Jovan MarinkovićCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.11
- Dominic Wadi SadiRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.10
Final score
0 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Radnički Niš 31% · Draw 30% · Novi Pazar 38%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - FK Novi PazarBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,42fair 10,87-13 %
MissMatchresultat - FK Radnicki NisBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,86fair 14,04-44 %
MissMatch prediction: Radnički Niš – Novi Pazar
Predicted score matrix
Novi Pazar →
Radnički Niš →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.4%
0–110.4%
0–27.2%
0–33.2%
0–4+1.5%
1
1–09.1%
1–113.1%
1–28.5%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–05.6%
2–17.5%
2–25.0%
2–32.3%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–02.2%
3–12.9%
3–22.0%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.1%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-29%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,18–1,34
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
120%
226%
321%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.83
Over 2,546%
@1.95
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Novi Pazar or draw (X2)68%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Fejsal Mulić to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Fejsal Mulić to score21%
- Ivan Davidović to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Novi Pazar38% probability@2.85PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
- 2 · Novi Pazar38% probability@2.80BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
- 2 · Novi Pazar38% probability@2.80NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Radnički Niš | X | 2 · Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.23 | 1.13 | 1.23 |
| Betsafe | 2.35 | 3.10 | EV+ 7% 2.80 |
| LeoVegas | 2.35 | 3.15 | EV+ 6% 2.75 |
| Nordicbet | 2.35 | 3.10 | EV+ 7% 2.80 |
| Pinnacle | 2.38 | 3.08 | EV+ 9% 2.85 |
Odds updated 23 Oct, 12:17
Odds movement
1+3 %
41 %36 %
2.30 → 2.38
X-2 %
32 %27 %
3.13 → 3.08
2+3 %
35 %30 %
2.77 → 2.85
Over 2,5+2 %
51 %46 %
1.92 → 1.95
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesRadnički Niš 1Draw 1Novi Pazar 2
Goals: 7–8 (⌀ 3,8)
Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- FK Radnicki Nis have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Radnički Niš
Novi Pazar
Radnički Niš (7–18)
Novi Pazar (11–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Radnički Niš
Novi Pazar
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Radnički Niš
Novi Pazar
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Radnički Niš | Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 13 |
| xPoints | 12.5 | 19.6 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.43 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Radnički Niš | Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 290 | 290 |
| Passes against per match | 321 | 311 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.7 | 27.2 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 39 |
| Set pieces | Radnički Niš | Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.27 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| Other | Radnički Niš | Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Ivan Kostić (Radnički Niš) | Bogdan Matijašević (Novi Pazar) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 37 | 30 |
| Save % | 73% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 62% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Radnički Niš vs Novi Pazar according to our model?
The model gives Novi Pazar a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Radnički Niš 31%, draw 30%, Novi Pazar 38%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Radnički Niš vs Novi Pazar?
The model expects 1.18 goals (xG) for Radnički Niš and 1.34 for Novi Pazar, 2.52 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Radnički Niš or draw (1X) 62%, Novi Pazar or draw (X2) 69% and no draw (12) 70%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.