01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Mačva Šabac or draw (X2)70%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Serbian Super League12°0,3 mm12 km/h
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ZemunLow block & direct1–0
Mačva ŠabacLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Mačva Šabac (36%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 4.05 (+16 %)
Zemun vs Mačva Šabac · Serbian Super League
1 · Zemun 35%X 29%36% Mačva Šabac · 2
35%
29%
36%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Zemun vs Mačva Šabac (Serbian Super League, Friday, 23 October 2026): Zemun win 35%, draw 29%, Mačva Šabac win 36%. Expected goals (xG): Zemun 1.20, Mačva Šabac 1.50. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Zemun or draw 64%, Mačva Šabac or draw 65%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Zemun – Mačva Šabac
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Defences are unlikely to steer the narrative when Zemun and Mačva Šabac meet. Both teams are known for their low defensive profiles and affinity for direct play, hinting at a game where transitions might dominate. The model's probabilities offer a coin-flip scenario, with Mačva Šabac barely edging as favourites at 36%. Zemun holds a marginally lesser chance at 35%, but neither side convinces as a solid bet to win.
The numbers underline Mačva's positional superiority. They're on a roll with 10 points this season, bolstered by an xPoints tally of 12.6, suggesting their on-field performances align well with their actual outcomes. In contrast, the hosts are struggling, with just 3 points and an xPoints of 7.2, indicating they've even underperformed against their xPoints forecasts. The visitors' edge extends to their xG per match of 0.78 versus Zemun's paltry 0.56, as well as their more robust defensive metrics.
Small head-to-head data doesn't overshadow the form. Zemun is forecasted to score 1.20 goals, while Mačva might find the net 1.50 times. Despite a low-scoring tendency, both teams are expected to register on the scoresheet, with an over 2.5 goals probability at 51%. A 1-1 draw is the most likely result at 12%, but a 0-1 or 1-2 away victory also looms large.
For punters, the most compelling angle is the over 2.5 goals market. There's a value opportunity with Betsafe, offering odds of 2.18 for the over 2.5 goals, carrying an 11% edge according to the model. While the over 3.5 market at odds of 3.9 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet presents a 12% edge, it's the more conservative over 2.5 bet that aligns best with the expected open nature of this matchup.
ZemunForm LDDLL
League ranking xG #15xGA #15xT #13xP/match #15Points #15
Key players
- Milan SpremoLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
- Milan JokicRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.16
- Mykhailo MeskhiCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.02
Mačva ŠabacForm DLLDD
League ranking xG #14xGA #14xT #14xP/match #14Points #12
Key players
- Bosko VrastanovicCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
- Luka PejovicLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.16
- Nikola LainovićRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.18
Final score
1 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Zemun 35% · Draw 29% · Mačva Šabac 36%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - FK Macva SabacBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,53fair 8,56+23 %
MissMatchresultat - FK ZemunBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 11,21fair 13,40-16 %
MissMatch prediction: Zemun – Mačva Šabac
Predicted score matrix
Mačva Šabac →
Zemun →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.1%
0–19.7%
0–27.6%
0–33.8%
0–4+2.0%
1
1–07.7%
1–112.4%
1–29.1%
1–34.6%
1–4+2.4%
2
2–04.8%
2–17.2%
2–25.4%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–01.9%
3–12.9%
3–22.2%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–00.7%
4+–11.1%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-28%
Expected goals
1,20–1,50
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@1.58
Over 2,551%
@2.28EV+13%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Mačva Šabac or draw (X2)70%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Vasilije Đurić to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Vasilije Đurić to score21%
- Danilo Knežević to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.529% probability@4.05BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
- Over 3.529% probability@4.05NordicbetEV+16%reference odds
- Over 2.551% probability@2.28PinnacleEV+16%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Zemun | X | 2 · Mačva Šabac |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.23 | 1.13 | 1.23 |
| Betsafe | 2.72 | 2.95 | 2.55 |
| LeoVegas | 2.65 | 2.95 | 2.50 |
| Nordicbet | 2.72 | 2.95 | 2.55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.81 | 2.79 | 2.62 |
Odds updated 23 Oct, 12:17
Odds movement
1+4 %
35 %30 %
2.70 → 2.81
X-3 %
34 %29 %
2.89 → 2.79
2+4 %
38 %33 %
2.51 → 2.62
Over 2,5+3 %
44 %39 %
2.21 → 2.28
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Zemun
Mačva Šabac
Zemun (6–25)
Mačva Šabac (9–20)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Zemun
Mačva Šabac
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Zemun
Mačva Šabac
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Zemun | Mačva Šabac |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 10 |
| xPoints | 7.2 | 12.6 |
| xG per match | 0.56 | 0.78 |
| xGA per match | 2.5 | 2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.51 | 0.31 |
| Playing style | Zemun | Mačva Šabac |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| Field tilt | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| xT per match | 0.71 | 0.7 |
| xTA per match | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 16 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 20 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.68 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| Passes per match | 248 | 235 |
| Passes against per match | 444 | 353 |
| Switches of play per match | 14.4 | 18.2 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 23 |
| Set pieces | Zemun | Mačva Šabac |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 3 | 2.9 |
| Corners against per match | 5.3 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.28 | 0.54 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| Other | Zemun | Mačva Šabac |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| The goalkeepers | Mladen Živković (Zemun) | Vukašin Jovanović (Mačva Šabac) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 50 | 27 |
| Save % | 76% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 65% | 64% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- IMT – Železničar Pančevo23 October 2026
- Radnički Niš – Novi Pazar23 October 2026 18:00 CEST
- Radnički 1923 – Radnik Surdulica23 October 2026 18:00 CEST
- Partizan Belgrade – Čukarički24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Mladost Lučani – Vojvodina24 October 2026 18:00 CEST
- OFK Beograd – Red Star Belgrade25 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Zemun vs Mačva Šabac according to our model?
The model gives Mačva Šabac a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Zemun 35%, draw 29%, Mačva Šabac 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Zemun vs Mačva Šabac?
The model expects 1.20 goals (xG) for Zemun and 1.50 for Mačva Šabac, 2.70 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Zemun or draw (1X) 64%, Mačva Šabac or draw (X2) 65% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.