01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Radnički 1923 to win62%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Serbian Super League11°1,9 mm11 km/h
Läs på svenska
Radnički 1923Possession control1–0
Radnik SurdulicaPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Radnički 1923 (62%)
Radnički 1923 vs Radnik Surdulica · Serbian Super League
1 · Radnički 1923 62%X 22%17% Radnik Surdulica · 2
62%
22%
17%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Radnički 1923 vs Radnik Surdulica (Serbian Super League, Friday, 23 October 2026): Radnički 1923 win 62%, draw 22%, Radnik Surdulica win 17%. Expected goals (xG): Radnički 1923 1.94, Radnik Surdulica 1.01. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Radnički 1923 or draw 83%, Radnik Surdulica or draw 38%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Radnički 1923 – Radnik Surdulica
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Radnički 1923 stands firm as the favorite to dictate proceedings against Radnik Surdulica, boasting a 62% win probability according to the model. The hosts' inclination for possession control plays right into their hands against a side that relies on high pressing. Radnički's style is not just about keeping the ball; it often creates tangible outcomes in terms of expected goals, with a healthy 1.94 xG compared to the visitors' 1.01. This advantage is crucial, given the tight scoreline predictions leaning slightly towards a home victory.
Despite Radnički's stylistic advantages, their two-match head-to-head record since 2023 (1 win, 1 draw) offers a limited perspective. Surdulica's capability to press and disrupt possession could be a critical factor, especially considering their slightly better xPoints tally of 18.2 compared to Radnički's 15.6. However, the home side's edge in xG and xGA per match (1.6 vs 1.4 and 1.2 vs 1.4, respectively) emphasizes a more efficient balance between attack and defense.
Goals could be on the cards, with a 56% probability for over 2.5 goals and both teams pegged to score in 55% of scenarios. Yet, the most likely outcomes of 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0 suggest a more cautious approach, rooted in tactical control rather than open exchanges. The visitors' ability to generate xG quickly after regaining possession is a nuance that Radnički will be prepared for, but it's unlikely to swing the match decisively.
From a betting perspective, the true value surfaces in the odds market. Betsafe and Nordicbet both offer over 3.5 goals at 3.35, providing a 14% edge, but it's Radnički's home win at odds of 1.82 with Betsafe that stands out, carrying a 12% edge. The numbers favor a disciplined home side, poised to secure a narrow yet rewarding victory.
Radnički 1923Form DWWLL
League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #3xP/match #9Points #4
Key players
- Slobodan SimovićCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.09
- Nikola MarjanovićCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
- Nemanja GlavčićFxG 0.14 · xT 0.13
Radnik SurdulicaForm DDDLW
League ranking xG #8xGA #9xT #7xP/match #7Points #5
Key players
- Aleksandar PejovićCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.32
- Darko StojanovićCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.08
- Sadick AbubakarCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
Final score
1 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Radnički 1923 62% · Draw 22% · Radnik Surdulica 17%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Radnicki 1923Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,04fair 5,63+7 %
MissMatchresultat - FK Radnik SurdulicaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 13,41fair 20,78-35 %
MissMatch prediction: Radnički 1923 – Radnik Surdulica
Predicted score matrix
Radnik Surdulica →
Radnički 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–15.0%
0–22.7%
0–30.9%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–09.9%
1–110.6%
1–25.2%
1–31.7%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–09.9%
2–19.9%
2–25.0%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–06.4%
3–16.4%
3–23.2%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–04.8%
4+–14.8%
4+–22.4%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.2-010%
- 5.3-16%
Expected goals
1,94–1,01
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+18%
Under 2,544%
@1.93
Over 2,556%
@1.95EV+10%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Radnički 1923 to win62%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Mohamed Cissé to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Mohamed Cissé to score29%
- Miloš Popović to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Radnički 192362% probability@1.91Bet365EV+18%reference odds
- Over 3.534% probability@3.40Bet365EV+16%reference odds
- 1 · Radnički 192362% probability@1.81PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Radnički 1923 | X | 2 · Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 18% 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Betfair Exchange | 1.23 | 1.98 | 2.02 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 11% 1.80 | 3.40 | 3.95 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 11% 1.80 | 3.40 | 3.95 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 11% 1.80 | 3.40 | 3.95 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 11% 1.81 | 3.26 | 4.25 |
Odds updated 23 Oct, 12:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards the draw since 21 October — the odds have shortened from 3.59 to 3.26 (−9%).
1+11 %
57 %47 %
1.63 → 1.81
X-9 %
32 %22 %
3.59 → 3.26
2-4 %
25 %15 %
4.43 → 4.25
Over 2,5+4 %
55 %45 %
1.77 → 1.85
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesRadnički 1923 1Draw 1Radnik Surdulica 0
Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Radnički 1923
Radnik Surdulica
Radnički 1923 (17–14)
Radnik Surdulica (17–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Radnički 1923
Radnik Surdulica
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Radnički 1923
Radnik Surdulica
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Radnički 1923 | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 17 |
| xPoints | 15.6 | 18.2 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | Radnički 1923 | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.97 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 315 | 305 |
| Passes against per match | 223 | 317 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.4 | 19.9 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Radnički 1923 | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 6.9 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.5 |
| Other | Radnički 1923 | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Luka Lijeskić (Radnički 1923) | Stefan Ranđelović (Radnik Surdulica) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 29 | 32 |
| Save % | 71% | 76% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 41% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Radnički 1923 vs Radnik Surdulica according to our model?
The model gives Radnički 1923 a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Radnički 1923 62%, draw 22%, Radnik Surdulica 17%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Radnički 1923 vs Radnik Surdulica?
The model expects 1.94 goals (xG) for Radnički 1923 and 1.01 for Radnik Surdulica, 2.94 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Radnički 1923 or draw (1X) 83%, Radnik Surdulica or draw (X2) 38% and no draw (12) 78%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.