Brommapojkarna vs Djurgården Prediction: Away win 60% (16 Oct 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan16 October 2026 19:00 CESTGrimsta IP, Stockholm11°1,2 mm15 km/h

Läs på svenska

BrommapojkarnaCounter-attacks & crosses

DjurgårdenPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Djurgården (60%)Best value by the model: 1 · Brommapojkarna @ 5.75 (+5 %)

1 · Brommapojkarna 18%X 22%60% Djurgården · 2

18%

22%

60%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Brommapojkarna vs Djurgården (Swedish Allsvenskan, Friday, 16 October 2026): Brommapojkarna win 18%, draw 22%, Djurgården win 60%. Expected goals (xG): Brommapojkarna 0.98, Djurgården 2.10. Most likely score: 0-2 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Brommapojkarna or draw 40%, Djurgården or draw 82%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Brommapojkarna – Djurgården

Oscar Nilsson · 9 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Djurgården's attacking prowess is a significant factor as they head into their clash with Brommapojkarna. The visitors' expected goals tally sits at an impressive 2.10, indicating their ability to create scoring opportunities. This suggests that Brommapojkarna's defense, which concedes xGA of 1.4 per match, could be heavily tested. With Djurgården's preference for possession and a high press, it's likely they will control the game and force the hosts into a reactive stance.

Brommapojkarna's chances of pulling off an upset are slim, with only an 18% likelihood of a home victory, according to the models. Their approach, centered on counter-attacks and crosses, can be effective in catching opponents off guard. However, against a well-organized side like Djurgården, whose defensive xGA per match stands at just 1.0, it might not be enough to shift the balance in their favor.

The head-to-head record tells a clear story: Djurgården have won six of their last seven encounters. This, combined with their higher total points (41 compared to Brommapojkarna's 27) and xPoints (38.0 vs 29.4), solidifies their status as favorites. While historical performance is just one piece of the puzzle, it adds weight to the numbers supporting an away win.

With a 59% chance of seeing over 2.5 goals and 55% likelihood of both teams scoring, the game is set to be open and competitive. Given Djurgården's attacking strength and the hosts' vulnerability, the most likely outcomes are 0-2, 1-2, and 1-1. The rain may slightly dampen scoring, but it's already factored into the projections.

For those looking for value, consider the 0-2 scoreline at odds of 10% probability. Djurgården’s superior form and tactical edge position them well to secure a comfortable victory, with the model backing them at a 60% win probability.

Brommapojkarna

Form WLWLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #10xT #15xP/match #9Points #11

Key players

Oliver BergFxG 0.24 · xT 0.24
David IssoFxG 0.37 · xT -0.01
Mads Kristian HansenRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.22

Djurgården

Form WWWWL

League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #4xP/match #3Points #3

Key players

Bo HeglandFxG 0.35 · xT 0.32
Max LarssonLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.23
Kristian LienFxG 0.65 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Brommapojkarna – Djurgården

Predicted score matrix

Djurgården →

Brommapojkarna →

0–04.9%

0–19.4%

0–210.1%

0–37.1%

0–4+6.0%

1–04.2%

1–19.8%

1–29.9%

1–36.9%

1–4+5.9%

2–02.2%

2–14.6%

2–24.9%

2–33.4%

2–4+2.9%

3–00.7%

3–11.5%

3–21.6%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.5%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-210%
2.1-210%
3.1-110%
4.0-19%
5.0-37%

Expected goals

0,98–2,10

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

–

Over 2,559%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Djurgården to win60%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Djurgården to win60%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Kristian Lien to score42%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Kristian Lien to score42%
Kaare Brøckner Barslund to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Brommapojkarna18% probability@5.75LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Brommapojkarna	X	2 · Djurgården
LeoVegas	EV+ 5% 5.75	4.50	1.50

Odds updated 10 Oct, 19:37

Odds movement

10 %

19 %14 %

5.75 → 5.75

X-2 %

23 %18 %

4.60 → 4.50

20 %

65 %60 %

1.50 → 1.50

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 10/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Brommapojkarna 1Draw 0Djurgården 6

Goals: 5–15 (⌀ 2,9)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

Djurgården dominate this fixture historically: 6 wins to 1 in 7 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Brommapojkarna

Djurgården

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Brommapojkarna (30–36)

Djurgården (47–21)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Brommapojkarna

Djurgården

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Brommapojkarna

Djurgården

The teams in numbers

Performance	Brommapojkarna	Djurgården
Points	27	41
xPoints	29.4	38
xG per match	1.1	1.9
xGA per match	1.4	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.37
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.14

Playing style	Brommapojkarna	Djurgården
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.37
Field tilt	0.41	0.58
xT per match	1.1	1.5
xTA per match	1.7	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	22	31
Pressing intensity	0.49	0.53
Pressing efficiency	0.19	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.27
Entries into the box per match	13	16
Entries into the box against	19	12
Pass completion %	0.83	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.79
Passes per match	421	452
Passes against per match	494	344
Switches of play per match	16.1	16
Long balls per match	28	30

Set pieces	Brommapojkarna	Djurgården
xG from free kicks	0.13	0.19
Corners per match	4.6	6.2
Corners against per match	5.7	3.7
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.64

Other	Brommapojkarna	Djurgården
Throw-in control	0.61	0.63

The goalkeepers	Leo Cavallius (Brommapojkarna)	Jacob Rinne (Djurgården)
Saves	81	64
Save %	70%	77%
xG prevented	54%	54%
Claims	115 (83%)	93 (89%)

Teams & more matches this round

Brommapojkarna

Fixtures, form & tips

Djurgården

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Brommapojkarna vs Djurgården according to our model?

The model gives Djurgården a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brommapojkarna 18%, draw 22%, Djurgården 60%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Brommapojkarna vs Djurgården?

The model expects 0.98 goals (xG) for Brommapojkarna and 2.10 for Djurgården, 3.08 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Brommapojkarna or draw (1X) 40%, Djurgården or draw (X2) 82% and no draw (12) 78%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.