Örgryte vs GAIS Prediction: Away win 60% (18 Oct 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan18 October 2026 16:30 CESTGamla Ullevi, Göteborg7°15 km/h

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ÖrgryteBalanced & physical

GAISPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · GAIS (60%)

1 · Örgryte 18%X 21%60% GAIS · 2

18%

21%

60%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Örgryte vs GAIS (Swedish Allsvenskan, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Örgryte win 18%, draw 21%, GAIS win 60%. Expected goals (xG): Örgryte 0.96, GAIS 1.96. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Örgryte or draw 40%, GAIS or draw 82%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

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Analysis: Örgryte – GAIS

Marcus Johansson · 10 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT (corrected):

The single head-to-head clash between Örgryte and Gais since 2023 saw the visitors come out on top. While this limited sample holds less weight than current form and expected goals, it sets the stage for what could be another challenging evening for the hosts. Gais's possession-heavy play style, coupled with their high pressing tactics, positions them as favorites not just in numbers, but in the dynamic of play.

The statistical backdrop paints a stark picture: Gais sit comfortably with 30 points, doubling Örgryte's tally. More tellingly, the expected points (xPoints) metric suggests that Gais's performance aligns closely with their actual success, showcasing a robust side. Örgryte, with xPoints of 23.5, underlines a team that struggles to convert opportunities into tangible results. The expected goals (xG) and goals against (xGA) further emphasize this disparity, forecasting a difficult task for the home side to breach Gais's organized defense.

Given these metrics, the most probable scorelines are tightly bunched, with 1-1, 0-2, and 0-1 each sitting around 10%. The model's probabilities lean heavily towards Gais, offering a 60% chance of an away victory. The over 2.5 goals probability at 56% suggests we could see a few goals, especially if Gais's attacking prowess comes to the fore. However, the hosts' physicality might just stifle enough of the visitors' flow to keep it tight.

Given the model's confidence in Gais and their ability to dominate on both sides of the pitch, the underlying numbers point clearly in their favor.

Örgryte

Form DLDLL

League ranking xG #14xGA #15xT #14xP/match #12Points #15

Key players

Daniel PaulsonCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.15
Noah ChristofferssonFxG 0.38 · xT 0.03
Tobias SanaCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.25

GAIS

Form WDLWL

League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #2xP/match #4Points #10

Key players

August WängbergRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.14
Filip BeckmanCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.09
Robin FrejCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.20

Match prediction: Örgryte – GAIS

Predicted score matrix

GAIS →

Örgryte →

0–05.7%

0–110.3%

0–210.4%

0–36.8%

0–4+5.2%

1–04.9%

1–110.5%

1–29.9%

1–36.5%

1–4+5.0%

2–02.5%

2–14.9%

2–24.8%

2–33.1%

2–4+2.4%

3–00.8%

3–11.5%

3–21.5%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.8%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.5%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.0-210%
3.0-110%
4.1-210%
5.0-37%

Expected goals

0,96–1,96

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

–

Over 2,556%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

GAIS to win60%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

GAIS to win60%
Over 2.5 goals56%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals56%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Örgryte 0Draw 0GAIS 1

Goals: 0–4 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Örgryte

GAIS

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Örgryte (25–49)

GAIS (28–21)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Örgryte

GAIS

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Örgryte

GAIS

The teams in numbers

Performance	Örgryte	GAIS
Points	15	30
xPoints	23.5	36.8
xG per match	1	1.6
xGA per match	1.9	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.44
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.15

Playing style	Örgryte	GAIS
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.33
Field tilt	0.34	0.56
xT per match	1.1	1.6
xTA per match	1.6	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	25	38
Pressing intensity	0.5	0.5
Pressing efficiency	0.2	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.25
Entries into the box per match	13	17
Entries into the box against	17	12
Pass completion %	0.78	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.76
Passes per match	345	419
Passes against per match	483	407
Switches of play per match	15.2	12.4
Long balls per match	26	27

Set pieces	Örgryte	GAIS
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.17
Corners per match	4	5.2
Corners against per match	6.1	4.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.67

Other	Örgryte	GAIS
Throw-in control	0.58	0.62

The goalkeepers	Hampus Gustafsson (Örgryte)	Mergim Krasniqi (GAIS)
Saves	89	53
Save %	65%	80%
xG prevented	36%	51%
Claims	123 (90%)	91 (94%)

Teams & more matches this round

Örgryte

Fixtures, form & tips

GAIS

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Örgryte vs GAIS according to our model?

The model gives GAIS a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Örgryte 18%, draw 21%, GAIS 60%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Örgryte vs GAIS?

The model expects 0.96 goals (xG) for Örgryte and 1.96 for GAIS, 2.92 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Örgryte or draw (1X) 40%, GAIS or draw (X2) 82% and no draw (12) 79%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.