Sirius vs Elfsborg Prediction: Home win 50% (18 Oct 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan18 October 2026 14:00 CESTStudenternas, Uppsala5°29 km/h

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SiriusBalanced & physical

ElfsborgBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Sirius (50%)

1 · Sirius 50%X 24%26% Elfsborg · 2

50%

24%

26%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sirius vs Elfsborg (Swedish Allsvenskan, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Sirius win 50%, draw 24%, Elfsborg win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Sirius 1.81, Elfsborg 1.19. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Sirius or draw 74%, Elfsborg or draw 50%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.

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Analysis: Sirius – Elfsborg

Sofia Andersson · 10 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Sirius' 50% win probability against Elfsborg underscores their form advantage, bolstered by a potent run of four consecutive victories. They enter as favorites with a strong expected goals figure of 1.81, significantly outpacing the visitors' 1.19. Despite Elfsborg's persistence in scoring across nine straight league fixtures, their inferior xPoints and xG metrics reflect a team struggling to convert potential into points.

The clash historically yields fireworks, averaging 4.3 goals per game, but our model sees a tighter outcome. While over 2.5 goals is statistically supported at 58%, the lean is towards Sirius finding a narrow edge. Most likely scorelines suggest a 1-1 draw at 11% and a 2-1 home win at 10%, aligning with Sirius' stronger underlying numbers and physical style.

Given their current winning streak and superior metrics, Sirius presents a calculated opportunity to target. While the head-to-head is slightly in Elfsborg's favor, its significance wanes when weighed against Sirius' current dominance and the home team's decisive statistical edge.

Sirius

Form LWWWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #8xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Melker HeierCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
Victor EkströmRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.03
Henrik Rönnlöf CastegrenRBxG 0.06 · xT 0.11

Elfsborg

Form DWLWW

League ranking xG #9xGA #9xT #7xP/match #7Points #4

Key players

Niklas HultLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.16
Sebastian HolménCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.08
Simon OlssonCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Sirius – Elfsborg

Predicted score matrix

Elfsborg →

Sirius →

0–05.3%

0–15.6%

0–23.5%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–08.7%

1–111.0%

1–26.4%

1–32.5%

1–4+1.0%

2–08.1%

2–19.7%

2–25.8%

2–32.3%

2–4+0.9%

3–04.9%

3–15.9%

3–23.5%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.5%

4+–03.4%

4+–14.0%

4+–22.4%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.2-08%
5.1-26%

Expected goals

1,81–1,19

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,542%

–

Over 2,558%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sirius to win50%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Sirius to win50%
Over 2.5 goals58%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals58%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Sirius 3Draw 0Elfsborg 4

Goals: 17–13 (⌀ 4,3)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 4.3 goals per meeting on average.
IK Sirius FK come into this round on 4 straight wins.
IF Elfsborg have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sirius

Elfsborg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sirius (53–28)

Elfsborg (31–22)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sirius

Elfsborg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sirius

Elfsborg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sirius	Elfsborg
Points	54	37
xPoints	42.8	30.5
xG per match	1.8	1.3
xGA per match	1.1	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.26

Playing style	Sirius	Elfsborg
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.35
Field tilt	0.45	0.48
xT per match	1.4	1.4
xTA per match	1.3	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	30	27
Pressing intensity	0.52	0.45
Pressing efficiency	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.24
Entries into the box per match	14	15
Entries into the box against	14	14
Pass completion %	0.82	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.77
Passes per match	390	408
Passes against per match	439	436
Switches of play per match	16.8	13.8
Long balls per match	31	28

Set pieces	Sirius	Elfsborg
xG from free kicks	0.21	0.11
Corners per match	5.7	4.2
Corners against per match	5.2	5.1
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.66

Other	Sirius	Elfsborg
Throw-in control	0.61	0.64

The goalkeepers	David Celic (Sirius)	Isak Pettersson (Elfsborg)
Saves	72	68
Save %	72%	76%
xG prevented	44%	54%
Claims	120 (91%)	92 (88%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sirius

Fixtures, form & tips

Elfsborg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sirius vs Elfsborg according to our model?

The model gives Sirius a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sirius 50%, draw 24%, Elfsborg 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Sirius vs Elfsborg?

The model expects 1.81 goals (xG) for Sirius and 1.19 for Elfsborg, 3.00 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Sirius or draw (1X) 74%, Elfsborg or draw (X2) 50% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.