01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Västerås SK or draw (1X)71%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Swedish AllsvenskanIver Arena, Västerås5°27 km/h
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Västerås SKPossession controlvs
MjällbyPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Västerås SK (39%)Soft draw
Västerås SK vs Mjällby · Swedish Allsvenskan
1 · Västerås SK 39%X 27%34% Mjällby · 2
39%
27%
34%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Västerås SK vs Mjällby (Swedish Allsvenskan, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Västerås SK win 39%, draw 27%, Mjällby win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Västerås SK 1.64, Mjällby 1.28. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Västerås SK or draw 66%, Mjällby or draw 61%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
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Analysis: Västerås SK – Mjällby
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Västerås SK and Mjällby have faced each other three times since 2023, with each team securing a win and sharing the spoils once. This small sample offers limited insight but shows competitiveness between the sides. The hosts hold a commanding position in the league with 35 points compared to the visitors' 22, yet the model's 39% win probability suggests caution against overestimating Västerås.
Both teams favor possession-oriented play, often battling to control the midfield. Västerås may find solace in their defensive edge, conceding fewer goals on average than Mjällby. Despite this, their xG of 1.1 per match lags behind Mjällby's 1.2, indicating a potential weakness in converting their possession into concrete chances.
The expected goals numbers paint a picture of a relatively even contest, with Västerås anticipated to edge Mjällby but not by much—1.64 to 1.28. This suggests a narrow margin, aligning with the most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 2-1. The over 2.5 goals probability at 56% and both teams to score at 59% hint at a lively encounter, yet the possession styles might moderate this expectation.
From a betting perspective, the model leans toward Västerås as the more probable winner. While not a guarantee, the numbers suggest Västerås could outmaneuver Mjällby narrowly. A 2-1 victory for the hosts seems plausible, fitting both the model's lean and the defensive vulnerabilities of the visitors. Whether Mjällby's modest xG advantage can disrupt Västerås's home dominance remains the key question.
Västerås SKForm WLWWL
League ranking xG #13xGA #11xT #16xP/match #11Points #6
Key players
- Herman MagnussonCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
- Frederic NsabiyumvaCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.04
- Simon GefvertRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.16
MjällbyForm LLDDL
League ranking xG #12xGA #13xT #10xP/match #15Points #12
Key players
- Jesper GustavssonCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
- Tom PetterssonLBxG 0.13 · xT 0.09
- Viktor GustafsonCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: Västerås SK – Mjällby
Predicted score matrix
Mjällby →
Västerås SK →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.7%
0–16.6%
0–24.4%
0–31.9%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–08.5%
1–111.6%
1–27.2%
1–33.1%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–07.3%
2–19.3%
2–25.9%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–04.0%
3–15.1%
3–23.3%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–02.4%
4+–13.0%
4+–21.9%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-07%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,64–1,28
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
–
Over 2,556%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Västerås SK or draw (1X)71%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Sountonoma Axel Taonsa to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Sountonoma Axel Taonsa to score20%
- Viktor Gustafson to be booked25%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesVästerås SK 1Draw 1Mjällby 1
Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Västerås SK
Mjällby
Västerås SK (34–36)
Mjällby (27–38)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Västerås SK
Mjällby
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Västerås SK
Mjällby
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Västerås SK | Mjällby |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 35 | 22 |
| xPoints | 27.4 | 22.3 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.43 |
| Playing style | Västerås SK | Mjällby |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 33 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 366 | 402 |
| Passes against per match | 412 | 399 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.4 | 17.4 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Västerås SK | Mjällby |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 4.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| Other | Västerås SK | Mjällby |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| The goalkeepers | Elis Jäger (Västerås SK) | Robin Wallinder (Mjällby) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 79 | 71 |
| Save % | 70% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 47% |
| Claims | 74 (86%) | 112 (89%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Västerås SK vs Mjällby according to our model?
The model gives Västerås SK a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Västerås SK 39%, draw 27%, Mjällby 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Västerås SK vs Mjällby?
The model expects 1.64 goals (xG) for Västerås SK and 1.28 for Mjällby, 2.92 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Västerås SK or draw (1X) 66%, Mjällby or draw (X2) 61% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.