Ängelholm vs Eskilsminne: Prediction & Odds (21 Sept 2026)

Swedish Ettan21 September 2026 19:00 CEST14°4,5 mm37 km/h

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ÄngelholmLow block & direct

EskilsminnePossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Eskilsminne (40%)Soft draw

1 · Ängelholm 35%X 25%40% Eskilsminne · 2

35%

25%

40%

Analysis: Ängelholm – Eskilsminne

Marcus Johansson · 14 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Eleven percent of simulations point to a 1-1 draw, the single most common scoreline for this clash between Ängelholm and Eskilsminne. However, the visitors hold a slight edge with a 40% chance of securing the win. This tilt is grounded in Eskilsminne's marginal superiority in underlying metrics such as expected points and goals. Despite both sides enduring losing streaks, the hosts are on a rougher path, having dropped their last six matches.

The styles here contrast sharply — Ängelholm's reliance on a low defensive line and direct play faces Eskilsminne's possession-centric, high-press philosophy. This strategic divergence could lead to vulnerabilities, particularly for the hosts, against a team adept at controlling the tempo. Historical meetings have typically been goal-rich, with an average of 4.9 goals per game.

Given the model's over 2.5 goals probability at 59%, and both teams' defensive frailties, a high-scoring affair cannot be ruled out. The lean towards Eskilsminne to prevail presents potential value, especially considering their slight expected goals and points edges. A 1-2 win for the visitors appears a plausible outcome, with both teams likely finding the back of the net.

Ängelholm

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #26xGA #21xT #23xP/match #17Points #28

Key players

Vilgot CarlssonFxG 0.29 · xT 0.08
Oliver Stojanovic FredinFxG 0.15 · xT 0.53
Anton NilssonLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.11

Eskilsminne

Form WDLLL

League ranking xG #17xGA #19xT #7xP/match #15Points #22

Key players

Hugo LindahlFxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Leo Frigell JanssonRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.27
André GustafsonFxG 0.48 · xT -0.02

Match prediction: Ängelholm – Eskilsminne

Predicted score matrix

Eskilsminne →

Ängelholm →

0–05.1%

0–17.0%

0–25.6%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.5%

1–06.9%

1–111.4%

1–28.4%

1–34.3%

1–4+2.3%

2–05.5%

2–18.4%

2–26.4%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.7%

3–02.8%

3–14.2%

3–23.2%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.9%

4+–01.5%

4+–12.2%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-28%
3.2-18%
4.0-17%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,51–1,53

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

–

Over 2,559%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Eskilsminne or draw (X2)63%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Eskilsminne or draw (X2)63%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Baker Amer to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Adam Touray to score39%
Daniel Bergman to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Eskilsminne40% probability@3.10BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
2 · Eskilsminne40% probability@3.10BetssonEV+24%reference odds
2 · Eskilsminne40% probability@3.10NordicbetEV+24%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Ängelholm	X	2 · Eskilsminne
Betsafe	1.98	3.65	EV+ 24% 3.10
Betsson	1.98	3.65	EV+ 24% 3.10
Nordicbet	1.98	3.65	EV+ 24% 3.10

Odds updated 16 Sept, 09:37

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Ängelholm 2Draw 3Eskilsminne 2

Goals: 19–15 (⌀ 4,9)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 4.9 goals per meeting on average.
Ängelholms FF have lost 6 in a row.
Eskilsminne IF have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ängelholm

Eskilsminne

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ängelholm (25–39)

Eskilsminne (32–38)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ängelholm

Eskilsminne

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ängelholm

Eskilsminne

The teams in numbers

Performance	Ängelholm	Eskilsminne
Points	17	25
xPoints	28.1	28.9
xG per match	1.2	1.3
xGA per match	1.5	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.28

Playing style	Ängelholm	Eskilsminne
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.36
Field tilt	0.48	0.51
xT per match	1.3	1.6
xTA per match	1.6	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	29	29
Pressing intensity	0.48	0.52
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.26
Entries into the box per match	11	15
Entries into the box against	15	15
Pass completion %	0.76	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.72
Passes per match	329	334
Passes against per match	389	349
Switches of play per match	17.2	21.1
Long balls per match	29	36

Set pieces	Ängelholm	Eskilsminne
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.14
Corners per match	4.4	4.6
Corners against per match	4.3	5.1
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.24	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.57

Other	Ängelholm	Eskilsminne
Throw-in control	0.52	0.55

The goalkeepers	Robin Streifert (Ängelholm)	Ian Pettersson (Eskilsminne)
Saves	60	73
Save %	64%	67%
xG prevented	37%	47%
Claims	142 (97%)	109 (97%)

Teams & more matches this round

Ängelholm

Fixtures, form & tips

Eskilsminne

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ängelholm vs Eskilsminne according to our model?

The model gives Eskilsminne a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ängelholm 35%, draw 25%, Eskilsminne 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.