01 · 2 legs
Safe
- AFC Malmö to win58%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Swedish Ettan11°1,5 mm29 km/h
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AFC MalmöPossession & high pressvs
Skövde AIKCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · AFC Malmö (58%)
AFC Malmö vs Skövde AIK · Swedish Ettan
1 · AFC Malmö 58%X 21%22% Skövde AIK · 2
58%
21%
22%
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Analysis: AFC Malmö – Skövde AIK
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: A singular encounter last year saw AFC Malmö emerge victorious over Skövde AIK. While this head-to-head offers a glimpse, it falls short of painting the full picture. The hosts now sit with a tangible points advantage in the Ettan league, boasting 38 to the visitors' 30. Yet, when diving into the expected points, Skövde AIK edges slightly ahead, suggesting they've been somewhat hard done by in terms of actual results on the pitch.
AFC Malmö's style of possession and high press will collide with Skövde AIK's counter-attacking and cross-heavy approach. This stylistic clash will likely define the tempo and control of the game. Offensively, Malmö carries the edge with a higher xG per match of 1.5 compared to Skövde’s 1.2. Defensively, both teams are neck and neck with an xGA of 1.6, which indicates potential vulnerabilities that could be exploited.
The model positions Malmö as the favorites at 58%, reflecting their stronger form and strategic advantages. The most probable scorelines underscore this, with 2-1 and 2-0 in Malmö's favor being the front-runners. Both teams to score? The model places that at a 63% likelihood, which aligns with Skövde's knack for finding the net in 12 consecutive matches. However, the 17.4 mm of rain expected could dampen scoring opportunities, but it's crucial to note that weather impacts are already considered in the 65% over 2.5 goals probability.
The sharp angle here lies in an AFC Malmö victory. Given the attacking tendencies and scoring patterns of both sides, the over 2.5 goals market also holds promise for those seeking a more predictable return.
AFC MalmöForm DDLWW
League ranking xG #9xGA #24xT #5xP/match #23Points #12
Key players
- Filip BohmanFxG 0.38 · xT 0.04
- Fredrik MartinssonRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.40
- Ahmed AwadRWxG 0.36 · xT 0.17
Skövde AIKForm WWLLW
League ranking xG #25xGA #28xT #17xP/match #24Points #19
Key players
- Alfons NygaardFxG 0.41 · xT 0.09
- Emil SkillermoFxG 0.16 · xT 0.10
- Samuel SörmanRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.31
Match prediction: AFC Malmö – Skövde AIK
Predicted score matrix
Skövde AIK →
AFC Malmö →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.8%
0–14.1%
0–22.7%
0–31.1%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–07.1%
1–19.4%
1–25.7%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–07.8%
2–19.7%
2–26.0%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–05.5%
3–16.8%
3–24.2%
3–31.7%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–04.8%
4+–15.9%
4+–23.7%
4+–31.5%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.1-19%
- 3.2-08%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,12–1,24
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+25%
Under 2,535%
–
Over 2,565%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- AFC Malmö to win58%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Lukas Minter Wettergren to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Lukas Minter Wettergren to score24%
- Hannes Forsgård to be booked17%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesAFC Malmö 1Draw 0Skövde AIK 0
Goals: 4–0 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- Skövde AIK have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
AFC Malmö
Skövde AIK
AFC Malmö (44–35)
Skövde AIK (28–36)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
AFC Malmö
Skövde AIK
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
AFC Malmö
Skövde AIK
The teams in numbers
| Performance | AFC Malmö | Skövde AIK |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38 | 30 |
| xPoints | 29.9 | 30.1 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| Playing style | AFC Malmö | Skövde AIK |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.37 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 403 | 316 |
| Passes against per match | 353 | 449 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.7 | 18.5 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 35 |
| Set pieces | AFC Malmö | Skövde AIK |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.16 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 5.9 | 4.3 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 5.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| Other | AFC Malmö | Skövde AIK |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.6 | 0.55 |
| The goalkeepers | Philip Mårtensson (AFC Malmö) | Amar Ibrahimovic (Skövde AIK) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 41 | 82 |
| Save % | 70% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 34% | 51% |
| Claims | 69 (92%) | 167 (92%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins AFC Malmö vs Skövde AIK according to our model?
The model gives AFC Malmö a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: AFC Malmö 58%, draw 21%, Skövde AIK 22%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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