Sollentuna vs IFK Stocksund Prediction: Home win 52% (9 Oct 2026)

Swedish Ettan9 October 2026 19:00 CEST11°7,2 mm15 km/h

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SollentunaPossession control

IFK StocksundPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Sollentuna (52%)

1 · Sollentuna 52%X 22%27% IFK Stocksund · 2

52%

22%

27%

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Analysis: Sollentuna – IFK Stocksund

Anna Karlsson · 2 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The text contains a factual error: the "1.90 odds" cited for Bet365 is not supported by the facts. The 1.90 figure in the data refers to Sollentuna's expected goals (xG), not betting odds. This appears to be a fabricated/conflated statistic.

Corrected text:

The key question in Sollentuna's clash with IFK Stocksund is whether the visitors can break free from their current losing streak. Stocksund have dropped their last three matches, a run that casts a shadow over their trip to face a Sollentuna side that not only holds a points advantage but also a psychological edge. Sollentuna's 24 points versus Stocksund's 14 underline the hosts' stronger position this season, yet the visitors' capacity to create chances, reflected in their higher xG per match, suggests they could still pose a threat.

While both teams enjoy controlling possession, Sollentuna's ability to convert this into fewer goals against them might be the critical differentiator. Their xGA of 1.2 per match is significantly better than Stocksund's 1.9, highlighting a more reliable defense. This defensive stability will be vital, especially given the forecast for rain, which often dampens goal-scoring opportunities despite the model's high expectations for goals.

Historically, the head-to-head record is split evenly with three wins each, but a single draw. With only seven encounters on record, this small sample size shouldn't overshadow current form and expected goals. The model favors Sollentuna with a 52% chance of victory, and they appear poised to capitalize on their superior defensive metrics.

The most probable outcomes—1-1 at 10% and 2-1 at 9%—reflect a likely tight game, yet lean towards Sollentuna given their current form. The match is expected to surpass 2.5 goals, with a 64% probability, indicative of both sides' aggressive styles and historical fixture averages.

For bettors, Sollentuna's expected goals figure of 1.90 presents a stronger attacking outlook compared to Stocksund, particularly considering Stocksund's recent form slump. It's a gamble on the hosts to affirm their home advantage and maintain their upper hand in the standings.

Sollentuna

Form WLLDL

League ranking xG #29xGA #11xT #25xP/match #27Points #26

Key players

Johannes DanhoLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.29
Dida RashidiFxG 0.20 · xT 0.13
Salim NkubiriLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.08

IFK Stocksund

Form LWLLL

League ranking xG #11xGA #31xT #8xP/match #30Points #31

Key players

Dary Izia BotoLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.07
Alexander JohanssonCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.57
Yosef RaufFxG 0.40 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Sollentuna – IFK Stocksund

Predicted score matrix

IFK Stocksund →

Sollentuna →

0–03.9%

0–14.8%

0–23.6%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.8%

1–06.6%

1–110.0%

1–26.9%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.6%

2–19.3%

2–26.6%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.5%

3–04.2%

3–15.9%

3–24.2%

3–32.0%

3–4+1.0%

4+–03.1%

4+–14.3%

4+–23.1%

4+–31.4%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.1-07%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,90–1,42

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

–

Over 2,564%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sollentuna to win52%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sollentuna to win52%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Filip Rosenquist to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Yosef Rauf to score33%
Dary Izia Boto to be booked21%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Sollentuna 3Draw 1IFK Stocksund 3

Goals: 16–15 (⌀ 4,4)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 4.4 goals per meeting on average.
IFK Stocksund have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sollentuna

IFK Stocksund

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sollentuna (22–33)

IFK Stocksund (44–60)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sollentuna

IFK Stocksund

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sollentuna

IFK Stocksund

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sollentuna	IFK Stocksund
Points	24	14
xPoints	29.2	25.7
xG per match	1.1	1.4
xGA per match	1.2	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.31

Playing style	Sollentuna	IFK Stocksund
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.34
Field tilt	0.48	0.49
xT per match	1.3	1.5
xTA per match	1.3	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	27	25
Pressing intensity	0.46	0.53
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.26
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	12	15
Pass completion %	0.83	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.77
Passes per match	391	376
Passes against per match	401	349
Switches of play per match	12.9	12.9
Long balls per match	33	28

Set pieces	Sollentuna	IFK Stocksund
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.22
Corners per match	4	4.1
Corners against per match	4.9	4.8
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.51
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.51

Other	Sollentuna	IFK Stocksund
Throw-in control	0.59	0.57

The goalkeepers	Oscar Franck (Sollentuna)	Jakob Rhawi (IFK Stocksund)
Saves	42	72
Save %	70%	61%
xG prevented	40%	37%
Claims	76 (93%)	101 (86%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sollentuna

Fixtures, form & tips

IFK Stocksund

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sollentuna vs IFK Stocksund according to our model?

The model gives Sollentuna a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sollentuna 52%, draw 22%, IFK Stocksund 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.