01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Lunds BK to win45%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Swedish Ettan11°2,4 mm24 km/h
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Lunds BKPossession controlvs
FC TrollhättanPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Lunds BK (45%)
Lunds BK vs FC Trollhättan · Swedish Ettan
1 · Lunds BK 45%X 25%30% FC Trollhättan · 2
45%
25%
30%
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Analysis: Lunds BK – FC Trollhättan
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: Can Lunds BK sustain their historical dominance against an in-form FC Trollhättan side? The numbers suggest a compelling tension. Despite their commanding 4-0 head-to-head advantage in the small sample since 2023, Lunds face a Trollhättan team riding a wave of five straight victories. Home form favors the hosts, who have won 61% of their matches at home, but this visiting side is in the groove, having scored in eight consecutive league outings.
The model leans toward Lunds BK with a 45% probability of winning, underscoring their slight edge in expected goals at 1.84 to Trollhättan's 1.30. Yet, it's no landslide. The visitors’ recent streak and goal-scoring consistency disrupt the narrative of a straightforward home triumph. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 11% hints at a tightly contested match, while both teams to score sits at 62%, suggesting that defenses could be breached on both ends.
Playing styles cancel each other out with both teams favoring possession control, which may lead to a tactical deadlock given the weather conditions. The expected rain could suppress the goals slightly, yet the model’s 61% inclination for over 2.5 goals indicates the potential for a goal-rich encounter. The alignment of model probabilities and the scoring form of both teams adds layers to the prediction landscape.
The sharper angle focuses on FC Trollhättan's high from their recent form clashing with Lunds BK's imposing head-to-head record. The momentum of Trollhättan, juxtaposed with the historical script favoring Lunds, offers an intriguing betting narrative. The value appears to lie in backing both teams to find the net, reflecting the trends supporting goals on both sides, rather than a decisive triumph for either.
Lunds BKForm DWWLL
League ranking xG #1xGA #9xT #12xP/match #6Points #9
Key players
- Alexander NilssonLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.21
- Emil LindmanFxG 0.18 · xT 0.38
- Momodou BojangFxG 0.66 · xT 0.07
FC TrollhättanForm WWWWW
League ranking xG #13xGA #15xT #4xP/match #25Points #14
Key players
- Melwin BergRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.30
- Hugo TillyFxG 0.47 · xT 0.02
- Filip SternerLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: Lunds BK – FC Trollhättan
Predicted score matrix
FC Trollhättan →
Lunds BK →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.6%
0–15.3%
0–23.6%
0–31.6%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–07.7%
1–110.6%
1–26.7%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–07.3%
2–19.5%
2–26.2%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–04.5%
3–15.9%
3–23.8%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–03.2%
4+–14.1%
4+–22.7%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.2-07%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,84–1,30
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
418%
5+21%
Under 2,539%
–
Over 2,561%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Lunds BK to win45%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Isak Orajärvi to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Hugo Tilly to score24%
- Josef Getachew to be booked22%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
7 matchesLunds BK 4Draw 3FC Trollhättan 0
Goals: 13–5 (⌀ 2,6)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- Lunds BK dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 7 meetings.
- FC Trollhättan come into this round on 5 straight wins.
- FC Trollhättan have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
- Lunds BK win 61% of their home matches all-time (56 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lunds BK
FC Trollhättan
Lunds BK (46–28)
FC Trollhättan (41–36)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lunds BK
FC Trollhättan
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lunds BK
FC Trollhättan
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lunds BK | FC Trollhättan |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41 | 37 |
| xPoints | 37.5 | 29.8 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Lunds BK | FC Trollhättan |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.58 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 39 | 33 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 364 | 511 |
| Passes against per match | 304 | 307 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.3 | 13.6 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Lunds BK | FC Trollhättan |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| Corners per match | 5.7 | 5.3 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| Other | Lunds BK | FC Trollhättan |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.44 | 0.58 |
| The goalkeepers | Andreas Alexandersson (Lunds BK) | Jimmy Henriksson (FC Trollhättan) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 74 | 54 |
| Save % | 73% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 57% |
| Claims | 136 (93%) | 103 (93%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lunds BK vs FC Trollhättan according to our model?
The model gives Lunds BK a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lunds BK 45%, draw 25%, FC Trollhättan 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.