01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Karlberg or draw (1X)62%
- Over 1.5 goals87%
Swedish Ettan
Läs på svenska
KarlbergCounter-attacks & crossesvs
VasalundBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Karlberg (41%)
Karlberg vs Vasalund · Swedish Ettan
1 · Karlberg 41%X 24%34% Vasalund · 2
41%
24%
34%
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Analysis: Karlberg – Vasalund
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Karlberg's inclination towards counter-attacks and crosses sets the stage for an intriguing clash against Vasalund's balanced and physical approach. With the hosts slightly favored at a 41% probability to win, there's a clear expectation of a tightly contested battle. The hosts' strength in transitions could exploit any lapses from the visitors, who might try to impose their physicality in a controlled manner. This stylistic contrast hints at a match shaped by moments of disruption rather than sustained dominance.
The model sees a slight lean towards Karlberg, backed by the numbers. They hold a narrow lead in points, both actual and expected, suggesting they've been more consistent performers. Meanwhile, the expected goals per match from both teams are nearly identical, with Vasalund just edging it at 1.77 to 1.76. This parity is mirrored in the likelihood of both sides finding the net, pegged at 69%. Despite the small head-to-head sample of just five matches, which shows them evenly matched, Karlberg's recent form and xG metrics offer them a slight edge in this contest.
One can anticipate a match where both teams score, given the 69% probability, with a high chance of over 2.5 goals at 68%. The most likely scorelines of 1-1, 1-2, and 2-1 further indicate a close game with potential for goals. This aligns with Karlberg's propensity to capitalize on counter-attacks and Vasalund's balanced play, which could lead to an open contest.
While no outcome is certain in football, the hosts' superior metrics and their ability to exploit mistakes could tip the balance in their favor.
KarlbergForm LWLLD
League ranking xG #16xGA #18xT #19xP/match #14Points #23
Key players
- Noah Tesfai NegashLWxG 0.20 · xT 0.26
- Adam JemalFxG 0.47 · xT 0.16
- Hugo FernándezRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.29
VasalundForm LLDLW
League ranking xG #22xGA #23xT #27xP/match #28Points #25
Key players
- Ali KhanLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.40
- Marko NikolicFxG 0.18 · xT 0.22
- Christopher SliwoFxG 0.52 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: Karlberg – Vasalund
Predicted score matrix
Vasalund →
Karlberg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.2%
0–14.9%
0–24.6%
0–32.7%
0–4+1.8%
1
1–04.9%
1–19.4%
1–28.1%
1–34.8%
1–4+3.1%
2
2–04.6%
2–18.0%
2–27.1%
2–34.2%
2–4+2.8%
3
3–02.7%
3–14.7%
3–24.2%
3–32.5%
3–4+1.6%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–13.1%
4+–22.7%
4+–31.6%
4+–4+1.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-19%
- 2.1-28%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.0-15%
Expected goals
1,76–1,77
Both teams to score
69%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
110%
219%
321%
419%
5+28%
Under 2,532%
–
Over 2,568%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Karlberg or draw (1X)62%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Adam Jemal to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score69%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Adam Jemal to score28%
- Hugo Åslund to be booked19%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesKarlberg 2Draw 1Vasalund 2
Goals: 8–6 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Karlberg
Vasalund
Karlberg (30–39)
Vasalund (35–48)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Karlberg
Vasalund
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Karlberg
Vasalund
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Karlberg | Vasalund |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 29 | 27 |
| xPoints | 33.8 | 28.6 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| Playing style | Karlberg | Vasalund |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 377 | 371 |
| Passes against per match | 372 | 331 |
| Switches of play per match | 12.8 | 17.4 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Karlberg | Vasalund |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.6 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.61 |
| Other | Karlberg | Vasalund |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.62 | 0.6 |
| The goalkeepers | Argyrios Gkoulios (Karlberg) | Sindri Olafsson (Vasalund) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 62 | 64 |
| Save % | 70% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 50% | 49% |
| Claims | 77 (90%) | 102 (92%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Karlberg vs Vasalund according to our model?
The model gives Karlberg a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Karlberg 41%, draw 24%, Vasalund 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 9% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 69% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.