Swedish Ettan

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    ArlandaArlandaCounter-attacks & crosses
    1–2
    Umeå FCUmeå FCPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Arlanda (45%)

    Arlanda – Umeå FC · Swedish Ettan

    1 · Arlanda 45%X 25%30% Umeå FC · 2

    Analysis: Arlanda – Umeå FC

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    The clash between Arlanda and Umeå FC sets the stage for a counter-attacking side meeting a possession-focused outfit. This dynamic could dictate the flow of the game, with the hosts likely to thrive on quick transitions and crosses, while the visitors will aim to control the tempo and suffocate their opponent's rhythm. Despite Umeå's stylistic approach, the model suggests Arlanda, with a 45% win probability, holds the edge.

    Arlanda's lead in points (36 to Umeå's 20) and the head-to-head victory—albeit from a small sample—bolsters their position as favorites. Yet, Umeå presents its own threats, particularly evident in their higher xG per match at 1.8 compared to Arlanda's 1.4. This disparity highlights the visitors' potential to create chances, even if they haven't always converted them into victories.

    Defensively, Arlanda appears more robust with a slightly better xGA (1.3) than Umeå's 1.6, indicating a potential advantage in keeping things tight at the back. However, their vulnerability could be exposed against Umeå's ability to generate xG quickly after winning possession, evidenced by their 0.34 xG compared to Arlanda's 0.24 in that regard. The expected goals suggest a tight affair, with Arlanda at 1.80 and Umeå at 1.48, pointing to a likely 1-1 or 2-1 scoreline.

    With a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% probability of both teams finding the net, the lean is towards goals. The standout value lies in backing Arlanda to win at odds of 2.20 with Bet365. While not a guarantee, the odds present a tempting opportunity given Arlanda's form edge and slight model backing.

    ArlandaArlanda
    Form LDLWW
    League ranking xG #17xGA #11xT #19xP/match #12Points #6
    Key players
    • Mario ButrosCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.27
    • Isac AntholmLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.13
    • Anton CharbachiLWxG 0.56 · xT 0.16
    Umeå FCUmeå FC
    Form LLLDW
    League ranking xG #2xGA #27xT #26xP/match #13Points #25
    Key players
    • Robin HadadFxG 0.75 · xT -0.02
    • Stefan LindmarkCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.30
    • Emmanuel OlaworeRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.35
    Final score
    1 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Arlanda 45% · Draw 25% · Umeå FC 30%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Umeå FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,27fair 8,72-5 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - FC ArlandaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,86fair 5,85-17 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Arlanda – Umeå FC

    Predicted score matrix

    Umeå FC →
    Arlanda →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.1%
    0–15.3%
    0–24.1%
    0–32.0%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–06.5%
    1–110.3%
    1–27.4%
    1–33.6%
    1–4+1.9%
    2
    2–06.1%
    2–19.0%
    2–26.7%
    2–33.3%
    2–4+1.7%
    3
    3–03.7%
    3–15.4%
    3–24.0%
    3–32.0%
    3–4+1.0%
    4+
    4+–02.5%
    4+–13.7%
    4+–22.7%
    4+–31.3%
    4+–4+0.7%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-27%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.1-07%
    Expected goals
    1,80–1,48
    Both teams to score
    65%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,536%
    @2.32
    Over 2,564%
    @1.55

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Arlanda or draw (1X)69%
    • Over 1.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    58%

    Fair odds

    1.72

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Arlanda or draw (1X)69%
    • Over 2.5 goals64%
    • Samuel Dawid Rydz to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score65%
    • Over 2.5 goals64%
    • Samuel Dawid Rydz to score28%
    • Yoas Yemane to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    Bookmaker1 · ArlandaX2 · Umeå FC
    Betsafe1.953.553.25
    Betsson1.953.553.25
    Nordicbet1.953.553.25

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    1-3 %
    48 %43 %

    2.02 → 1.95

    X0 %
    28 %23 %

    3.55 → 3.55

    2+8 %
    32 %27 %

    3.00 → 3.25

    Betsson · 5 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    Arlanda 1Draw 0Umeå FC 0
    Goals: 1–0 (⌀ 1)

    Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Arlanda
    Umeå FC
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Arlanda (33–22)
    Umeå FC (24–32)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Arlanda
    Erik Johansson Olsson: 202 passningar, xT 0.28OlssonCarl Norberg: 174 passningar, xT 1.43NorbergYoas Yemane: 144 passningar, xT 0.16YemaneIsac Giordano Eriksson: 136 passningar, xT 0.16ErikssonLeonard Kleist: 134 passningar, xT 0.46KleistMark Gorgos: 105 passningar, xT 0.13GorgosAdam Smedberg Lagh: 79 passningar, xT 0.59LaghIsac Antholm: 66 passningar, xT 0.22AntholmLudvig Lars Johan Nyman: 58 passningar, xT -0.03NymanJoel Carlsson: 58 passningar, xT 0.05CarlssonMario Butros: 56 passningar, xT 1.2Butros
    Umeå FC
    David Ekman: 343 passningar, xT 0.35EkmanRasmus Andersson: 263 passningar, xT 0.26AnderssonStefan Lindmark: 180 passningar, xT 0.46LindmarkJerry Essombe Mambingo: 177 passningar, xT 0.26MambingoFredrick Udoh Godwin: 162 passningar, xT -0.07GodwinHassan Abdi Hassan: 153 passningar, xT 1.01HassanEmmanuel Olawore: 143 passningar, xT 1.31OlaworePontus Eriksson: 91 passningar, xT 0.21ErikssonSteve Zishim Bawa: 75 passningar, xT 0.65BawaNiclas Håkansson: 67 passningar, xT 0.13HåkanssonRobin Hadad: 56 passningar, xT -0.01Hadad
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Arlanda
    Erik Johansson Olsson: 202 passningar, xT 0.28OlssonCarl Norberg: 174 passningar, xT 1.43NorbergYoas Yemane: 144 passningar, xT 0.16YemaneIsac Giordano Eriksson: 136 passningar, xT 0.16ErikssonLeonard Kleist: 134 passningar, xT 0.46KleistMark Gorgos: 105 passningar, xT 0.13GorgosAdam Smedberg Lagh: 79 passningar, xT 0.59LaghIsac Antholm: 66 passningar, xT 0.22AntholmLudvig Lars Johan Nyman: 58 passningar, xT -0.03NymanJoel Carlsson: 58 passningar, xT 0.05CarlssonMario Butros: 56 passningar, xT 1.2Butros
    Umeå FC
    David Ekman: 343 passningar, xT 0.35EkmanRasmus Andersson: 263 passningar, xT 0.26AnderssonStefan Lindmark: 180 passningar, xT 0.46LindmarkJerry Essombe Mambingo: 177 passningar, xT 0.26MambingoFredrick Udoh Godwin: 162 passningar, xT -0.07GodwinHassan Abdi Hassan: 153 passningar, xT 1.01HassanEmmanuel Olawore: 143 passningar, xT 1.31OlaworePontus Eriksson: 91 passningar, xT 0.21ErikssonSteve Zishim Bawa: 75 passningar, xT 0.65BawaNiclas Håkansson: 67 passningar, xT 0.13HåkanssonRobin Hadad: 56 passningar, xT -0.01Hadad

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceArlandaUmeå FC
    Points3620
    xPoints28.128.1
    xG per match1.41.8
    xGA per match1.31.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.240.34
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.270.26
    Playing styleArlandaUmeå FC
    Build-up efficiency0.350.33
    Field tilt0.40.41
    xT per match1.41.3
    xTA per match1.41.5
    Won balls, offensive half3428
    Pressing intensity0.50.42
    Pressing efficiency0.280.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.310.29
    Entries into the box per match1113
    Entries into the box against1416
    Pass completion %0.730.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.72
    Passes per match258328
    Passes against per match341348
    Switches of play per match17.816.7
    Long balls per match3230
    Set piecesArlandaUmeå FC
    xG from free kicks0.130.14
    Corners per match3.56.1
    Corners against per match4.76
    xG per corner0.030.05
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.420.25
    First touch, defensive corners %0.570.55
    OtherArlandaUmeå FC
    Throw-in control0.410.55
    The goalkeepersAdam Smedberg Lagh (Arlanda)Pontus Eriksson (Umeå FC)
    Saves6342
    Save %75%69%
    xG prevented58%50%
    Claims93 (95%)48 (92%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Arlanda
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Umeå FC
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Arlanda vs Umeå FC according to our model?

    The model gives Arlanda a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Arlanda 45%, draw 25%, Umeå FC 30%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.