01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Hammarby TFF to win68%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
Swedish Ettan
Läs på svenska
JärfällaCounter-attacks & crosses2–2
Hammarby TFFPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Hammarby TFF (68%)Best value by the model: 1 · Järfälla @ 7.20 (+5 %)
Järfälla vs Hammarby TFF · Swedish Ettan
1 · Järfälla 15%X 18%68% Hammarby TFF · 2
15%
18%
68%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Järfälla vs Hammarby TFF (Swedish Ettan, Friday, 23 October 2026): Järfälla win 15%, draw 18%, Hammarby TFF win 68%. Expected goals (xG): Järfälla 1.01, Hammarby TFF 2.47. Most likely score: 1-2 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Järfälla or draw 32%, Hammarby TFF or draw 85%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Järfälla – Hammarby TFF
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Hammarby TFF's ability to maintain possession and execute a high press presents a formidable challenge for Järfälla, who are more comfortable on the counterattack. The visitors sit comfortably with a model probability of 68% to win, making them favorites by a wide margin. While Järfälla might attempt to exploit occasional gaps left by Hammarby's aggressive style, their chances hinge largely on seizing these fleeting opportunities.
In terms of expected goals, Hammarby TFF boasts an xG of 2.47 compared to Järfälla’s 1.01. The disparity underscores the visitors' attacking potency, which aligns with the model’s preference for scorelines like 1-2 and 0-2, both at 9%. Järfälla's defense will undoubtedly be under siege, having conceded on average 1.8 goals per match versus Hammarby's much tighter 0.83 xGA. This defensive frailty further tilts the scales away from the hosts.
The head-to-head record, limited to a single draw, offers little weight in predicting the outcome. Instead, form and xPoints should dominate the analysis. Hammarby TFF leads significantly in the points tally, with 48 to Järfälla's 22, and enjoys a comfortable edge in xPoints as well. The likely flow of the match will see Hammarby dictating terms, with Järfälla attempting to absorb pressure and strike on the break.
From a betting perspective, the over 2.5 goals at 68% seems a reasonable baseline, but the real value lies in the higher goals market. Both Betsafe and Nordicbet offer over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.28, presenting a 5% edge according to the model’s assessment. For those seeking even greater returns, Betsafe's odds of 3.85 for over 4.5 goals come with a 4% edge. Given the attacking efficiency of Hammarby and the defensive vulnerabilities of Järfälla, the over 3.5 goals market stands out as the sharpest angle in this matchup.
JärfällaForm LLDLW
League ranking xG #20xGA #29xT #27xP/match #29Points #30
Key players
- Yosef AksoyCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
- Naramsin AkdemirRWxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
- Anthony PortillaCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
Hammarby TFFForm LWLLW
League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #2xP/match #8Points #5
Key players
- Jesper LindahlCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.20
- William LoqvistRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.09
- Gent ElezajCDMxG 0.13 · xT 0.22
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Järfälla 15% · Draw 18% · Hammarby TFF 68%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Hammarby TFFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 2,99fair 3,81-21 %
MissMatchresultat - FC JärfällaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 17,91fair 23,54-24 %
MissMatch prediction: Järfälla – Hammarby TFF
Predicted score matrix
Hammarby TFF →
Järfälla →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.3%
0–17.4%
0–29.4%
0–37.7%
0–4+8.6%
1
1–02.9%
1–17.9%
1–29.5%
1–37.8%
1–4+8.7%
2
2–01.6%
2–13.9%
2–24.8%
2–33.9%
2–4+4.4%
3
3–00.5%
3–11.3%
3–21.6%
3–31.3%
3–4+1.5%
4+
4+–00.2%
4+–10.4%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-29%
- 2.0-29%
- 3.1-18%
- 4.1-38%
- 5.0-38%
Expected goals
1,01–2,47
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
110%
219%
322%
419%
5+27%
Under 2,532%
@3.00
Over 2,568%
@1.34
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Hammarby TFF to win68%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Oskar Moczarny to score40%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Oskar Moczarny to score40%
- Adrian Hamidi to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Järfälla15% probability@7.20BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Järfälla15% probability@7.20NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Järfälla15% probability@6.90LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Järfälla | X | 2 · Hammarby TFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 5% 7.20 | 5.55 | 1.27 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 1% 6.90 | 5.30 | 1.28 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 5% 7.20 | 5.55 | 1.27 |
Odds updated 23 Oct, 18:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Hammarby TFF win since 21 October — the odds have shortened from 1.34 to 1.27 (−5%).
1+9 %
26 %6 %
6.60 → 7.20
X+16 %
29 %9 %
4.80 → 5.55
2-5 %
75 %55 %
1.34 → 1.27
Over 2,5-4 %
75 %55 %
1.40 → 1.34
Nordicbet · 17 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesJärfälla 0Draw 1Hammarby TFF 0
Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Järfälla
Hammarby TFF
Järfälla (37–58)
Hammarby TFF (53–27)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Järfälla
Hammarby TFF
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Järfälla
Hammarby TFF
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Järfälla | Hammarby TFF |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 22 | 48 |
| xPoints | 30.9 | 41.5 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 0.83 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Järfälla | Hammarby TFF |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.4 |
| Field tilt | 0.4 | 0.76 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 0.78 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 33 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.47 | 0.59 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 22 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.85 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.81 |
| Passes per match | 362 | 476 |
| Passes against per match | 369 | 290 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.5 | 13.7 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Järfälla | Hammarby TFF |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 5.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 3.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.66 |
| Other | Järfälla | Hammarby TFF |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Erik von Feilitzen (Järfälla) | Elton Fischerström Opancar (Hammarby TFF) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 76 | 64 |
| Save % | 64% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 35% | 48% |
| Claims | 97 (89%) | 97 (92%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Järfälla vs Hammarby TFF according to our model?
The model gives Hammarby TFF a 68% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Järfälla 15%, draw 18%, Hammarby TFF 68%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 9% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Järfälla vs Hammarby TFF?
The model expects 1.01 goals (xG) for Järfälla and 2.47 for Hammarby TFF, 3.48 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Järfälla or draw (1X) 32%, Hammarby TFF or draw (X2) 85% and no draw (12) 82%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.