01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance FC Trollhättan or draw (1X)65%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Swedish Ettan9°3,7 mm25 km/h
Läs på svenska
FC TrollhättanPossession control2–4
Jönköpings SödraPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · FC Trollhättan (40%)
FC Trollhättan vs Jönköpings Södra · Swedish Ettan
1 · FC Trollhättan 40%X 25%36% Jönköpings Södra · 2
40%
25%
36%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–4. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for FC Trollhättan vs Jönköpings Södra (Swedish Ettan, Saturday, 24 October 2026): FC Trollhättan win 40%, draw 25%, Jönköpings Södra win 36%. Expected goals (xG): FC Trollhättan 1.53, Jönköpings Södra 1.42. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: FC Trollhättan or draw 64%, Jönköpings Södra or draw 60%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: FC Trollhättan – Jönköpings Södra
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: Jönköpings Södra have had the upper hand in recent head-to-head battles, winning four out of five encounters since 2023. However, it's crucial to note that five matches is a small sample size, which weighs less than current form and expected goals metrics. Trollhättan, despite their struggles against the visitors, have maintained an impressive scoring streak in the league, finding the net in 11 consecutive matches.
Diving into the numbers, Trollhättan's 40% probability of winning from the model slightly edges Jönköpings Södra's 36%, suggesting a tight contest. The home side has a slight advantage with total points but falls behind in expected metrics, as their xPoints trail behind the visitors. Trollhättan's xG per match of 1.4 beats Jönköpings' 1.2, indicating a marginally more potent attack, but they concede more, with an xGA of 1.4 compared to the visitors' 0.92.
The match is likely to be a narrow affair, with the model's probabilities pointing towards a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome. However, if one side were to sneak a win, Trollhättan's 2-1 seems slightly more probable than a 1-2 scoreline for Jönköpings. The expected rain might dampen scoring opportunities, yet the pre-match model already factors this in, with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The sharpest angle here lies in the model's lean: with Trollhättan slightly favored at 40% to Jönköpings' 36%, there appears to be some value if you back the hosts to break their winless streak against Jönköpings. While not a guarantee, the combination of current form and home advantage suggests this could be the moment Trollhättan finally edges this matchup.
FC TrollhättanForm WWDLL
League ranking xG #13xGA #18xT #6xP/match #26Points #14
Key players
- Melwin BergRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.28
- Filip SternerLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.14
- Nils SvenssonCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
Jönköpings SödraForm WLLLW
League ranking xG #26xGA #4xT #17xP/match #15Points #17
Key players
- Arvid ErikssonRBxG 0.08 · xT 0.17
- Olle AlmströmLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.24
- Sebastian CronaCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
Final score
2 – 4
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: FC Trollhättan 40% · Draw 25% · Jönköpings Södra 36%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - FC TrollhattanBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,22fair 7,99-10 %
MissMatchresultat - Jönköpings SödraBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,69fair 9,32-18 %
HitMatch prediction: FC Trollhättan – Jönköpings Södra
Predicted score matrix
Jönköpings Södra →
FC Trollhättan →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–17.1%
0–25.3%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–07.7%
1–111.7%
1–28.1%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–06.1%
2–18.7%
2–26.2%
2–32.9%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–03.1%
3–14.5%
3–23.2%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–12.4%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,53–1,42
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@1.98
Over 2,557%
@1.73
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance FC Trollhättan or draw (1X)65%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Abdirsak Hassan to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Abdirsak Hassan to score28%
- Oliver Ocampo Hägglund to be booked21%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · FC Trollhättan | X | 2 · Jönköpings Södra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.62 |
| LeoVegas | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| Nordicbet | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.62 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 15:36
Odds movement
1-3 %
40 %35 %
2.52 → 2.45
X-4 %
30 %25 %
3.35 → 3.20
2+7 %
38 %33 %
2.45 → 2.62
Nordicbet · 10 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesFC Trollhättan 0Draw 1Jönköpings Södra 4
Goals: 4–10 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- Jönköpings Södra IF dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
- FC Trollhättan have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
FC Trollhättan
Jönköpings Södra
FC Trollhättan (46–44)
Jönköpings Södra (31–28)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
FC Trollhättan
Jönköpings Södra
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
FC Trollhättan
Jönköpings Södra
The teams in numbers
| Performance | FC Trollhättan | Jönköpings Södra |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38 | 36 |
| xPoints | 32.6 | 37.6 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 0.92 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| Playing style | FC Trollhättan | Jönköpings Södra |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.6 | 0.63 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 32 | 35 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 510 | 355 |
| Passes against per match | 308 | 289 |
| Switches of play per match | 13.5 | 16.6 |
| Long balls per match | 24 | 29 |
| Set pieces | FC Trollhättan | Jönköpings Södra |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.16 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 5.4 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| Other | FC Trollhättan | Jönköpings Södra |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| The goalkeepers | Jimmy Henriksson (FC Trollhättan) | Alexander Eriksson (Jönköpings Södra) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 60 | 62 |
| Save % | 76% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 58% | 50% |
| Claims | 105 (92%) | 161 (91%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- AFC Malmö – Ängelholm24 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Eskilsminne – Lunds BK24 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Rosengård – Kristianstad FC24 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Laholm – Olympic24 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Gefle – FBK Karlstad24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Hässleholms IF – Skövde AIK24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Karlstad Fotboll – Stockholm Internazionale24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins FC Trollhättan vs Jönköpings Södra according to our model?
The model gives FC Trollhättan a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Trollhättan 40%, draw 25%, Jönköpings Södra 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in FC Trollhättan vs Jönköpings Södra?
The model expects 1.53 goals (xG) for FC Trollhättan and 1.42 for Jönköpings Södra, 2.95 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
FC Trollhättan or draw (1X) 64%, Jönköpings Södra or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.