Utsikten vs Tvååker: Prediction & Odds (23 Oct 2026)

Swedish Ettan23 October 2026 19:00 CEST10°6,1 mm17 km/h

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UtsiktenCounter-attacks & crosses

1–4

TvååkerCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Tvååker (47%)Best value by the model: 1 · Utsikten @ 5.00 (+57 %)

1 · Utsikten 31%X 21%47% Tvååker · 2

31%

21%

47%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–4. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Utsikten vs Tvååker (Swedish Ettan, Friday, 23 October 2026): Utsikten win 31%, draw 21%, Tvååker win 47%. Expected goals (xG): Utsikten 1.33, Tvååker 2.03. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%. Double chance: Utsikten or draw 53%, Tvååker or draw 69%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Utsikten – Tvååker

Anna Karlsson · 23 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Tvååker's impressive 47% win probability sets the tone for this matchup against Utsikten. The visitors have consistently outperformed their hosts in points and expected points, highlighting a clear edge in form. While Utsikten's recent string of three consecutive losses weighs heavily on their prospects, the single head-to-head clash since 2023, which ended in a draw, doesn't significantly alter the narrative given its limited sample size.

The expected goals figures reinforce Tvååker's advantage, with 2.03 compared to Utsikten's 1.33, indicating a likely scenario where the visitors dictate the terms. With both teams preferring counter-attacks and crosses, the style of play might not differ much, but Tvååker's execution appears more effective. Despite Utsikten's home-ground factor and the potential for an upset, the model leans strongly towards a 1-2 scoreline in favor of the visitors.

Yet, there's a notable betting angle. Utsikten's odds at 5.7 with Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet present a significant value opportunity. The model rates the home side's chances at 31%, showcasing a 79% edge — a tempting prospect for those seeking high-risk, high-return bets.

Utsikten

Form LWLLL

League ranking xG #30xGA #32xT #22xP/match #32Points #32

Key players

Enzo AndrénFxG 0.14 · xT 0.12
Pontus OlssonLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.29
Melvin KoliqiFxG 0.20 · xT 0.28

Tvååker

Form LLLDD

League ranking xG #25xGA #26xT #13xP/match #22Points #19

Key players

Melvin SjölandRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.34
Isak WimanCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.02
Gabriel GustavssonLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.19

Final score

1 – 4

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Utsikten 31% · Draw 21% · Tvååker 47%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Tvååkers IFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,69fair 4,75-22 %

Hit

Match prediction: Utsikten – Tvååker

Predicted score matrix

Tvååker →

Utsikten →

0–03.7%

0–16.8%

0–27.2%

0–34.9%

0–4+3.9%

1–04.3%

1–19.6%

1–29.5%

1–36.5%

1–4+5.2%

2–03.1%

2–16.2%

2–26.3%

2–34.3%

2–4+3.5%

3–01.4%

3–12.8%

3–22.8%

3–31.9%

3–4+1.5%

4+–00.6%

4+–11.2%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.7%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-27%
4.0-17%
5.1-36%

Expected goals

1,33–2,03

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+25%

Under 2,535%

@2.52

Over 2,565%

@1.47

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Tvååker to win47%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Tvååker to win47%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Alfred Ajdarevic to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Nikola Mitrovic to score32%
Isak Wiman to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Utsikten31% probability@5.00LeoVegasEV+57%reference odds
1 · Utsikten31% probability@4.90BetsafeEV+53%reference odds
1 · Utsikten31% probability@4.90NordicbetEV+53%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Utsikten	X	2 · Tvååker
Betsafe	EV+ 53% 4.90	4.25	1.50
LeoVegas	EV+ 57% 5.00	4.30	1.50
Nordicbet	EV+ 53% 4.90	4.25	1.50

Odds updated 23 Oct, 18:36

Odds movement

1-4 %

26 %6 %

5.10 → 4.90

X-6 %

29 %9 %

4.50 → 4.25

2+2 %

75 %55 %

1.47 → 1.50

Over 2,5+1 %

75 %55 %

1.46 → 1.47

Nordicbet · 9 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Utsikten 0Draw 1Tvååker 0

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

Utsikten have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Utsikten

Tvååker

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Utsikten (24–66)

Tvååker (35–41)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Utsikten

Tvååker

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Utsikten

Tvååker

The teams in numbers

Performance	Utsikten	Tvååker
Points	12	35
xPoints	25.5	34.8
xG per match	1.1	1.2
xGA per match	2.2	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.37	0.24

Playing style	Utsikten	Tvååker
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.34
Field tilt	0.42	0.41
xT per match	1.3	1.5
xTA per match	1.8	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	30	24
Pressing intensity	0.49	0.51
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.27
Entries into the box per match	11	12
Entries into the box against	18	16
Pass completion %	0.76	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.73
Passes per match	332	346
Passes against per match	437	399
Switches of play per match	15.6	18.9
Long balls per match	31	31

Set pieces	Utsikten	Tvååker
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.16
Corners per match	4.1	3.7
Corners against per match	5.4	6.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.6

Other	Utsikten	Tvååker
Throw-in control	0.59	0.58

The goalkeepers	Joel Nöller (Utsikten)	Alexander Capocci Nielsen (Tvååker)
Saves	86	111
Save %	76%	74%
xG prevented	59%	64%
Claims	45 (83%)	112 (90%)

Teams & more matches this round

Utsikten

Fixtures, form & tips

Tvååker

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Utsikten vs Tvååker according to our model?

The model gives Tvååker a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Utsikten 31%, draw 21%, Tvååker 47%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Utsikten vs Tvååker?

The model expects 1.33 goals (xG) for Utsikten and 2.03 for Tvååker, 3.37 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Utsikten or draw (1X) 53%, Tvååker or draw (X2) 69% and no draw (12) 79%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.