01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance FBK Karlstad or draw (X2)63%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Swedish Ettan9°21 km/h
Läs på svenska
GefleCounter-attacks & crosses1–0
FBK KarlstadCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · FBK Karlstad (43%)Best value by the model: 1 · Gefle @ 3.20 (+2 %)
Gefle vs FBK Karlstad · Swedish Ettan
1 · Gefle 32%X 25%43% FBK Karlstad · 2
32%
25%
43%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Gefle vs FBK Karlstad (Swedish Ettan, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Gefle win 32%, draw 25%, FBK Karlstad win 43%. Expected goals (xG): Gefle 1.49, FBK Karlstad 1.49. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Gefle or draw 57%, FBK Karlstad or draw 68%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Gefle – FBK Karlstad
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: Gefle against FBK Karlstad sets up as an intriguing clash of styles, both teams favoring counter-attacks and crosses. The visitors have a slight edge in almost every statistical category, which the model confirms by assigning them a 43% chance of taking all three points. While both sides share identical expected goals of 1.49 for this match, Karlstad's superior xG per match at 1.5 could tilt the balance in their favor.
The numbers show a tight contest with the most probable result being a 1-1 draw, but the model's lean toward FBK Karlstad cannot be ignored. Despite Gefle's 32 points in the Ettan, they lag in expected points compared to their opponents, who boast a robust 46 points. The gap in xPoints, 37.2 for Gefle versus 44.9 for Karlstad, is significant and underscores the visitors' potential to capitalize on chances.
The head-to-head record is limited to just one match since 2023, where Karlstad emerged victorious. This small sample should weigh less heavily than current form and statistical indicators, but it complements the broader pattern favoring the visitors. Goals seem likely in this fixture, with a 57% chance of exceeding 2.5 goals and a 60% probability for both teams finding the net.
Given these dynamics, a 1-2 scoreline appears to be a plausible outcome. As the numbers align in favor of the visitors, this could be a point of interest for those aligning with the model's perspective.
GefleForm WLLDD
League ranking xG #29xGA #14xT #28xP/match #16Points #23
Key players
- Dillan IsmailCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.04
- Eric LarssonRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.32
- Rasmus NehrmanCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
FBK KarlstadForm DWDLW
League ranking xG #9xGA #8xT #8xP/match #2Points #9
Key players
- Linus FredrikssonRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.21
- Alexander HagelbergCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.15
- Michael Aduragbemi OluwayemiCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.12
Final score
1 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Gefle 32% · Draw 25% · FBK Karlstad 43%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Gefle IFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,29fair 8,45+10 %
MissMatchresultat - FBK KarlstadBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,77fair 8,45-32 %
MissMatch prediction: Gefle – FBK Karlstad
Predicted score matrix
FBK Karlstad →
Gefle →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.4%
0–17.2%
0–25.6%
0–32.8%
0–4+1.4%
1
1–07.2%
1–111.6%
1–28.4%
1–34.2%
1–4+2.2%
2
2–05.6%
2–18.4%
2–26.3%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–02.8%
3–14.2%
3–23.1%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–12.2%
4+–21.6%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-18%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,49–1,49
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.08
Over 2,557%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance FBK Karlstad or draw (X2)63%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Adam Bertilsson to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Lukas Vikgren to score30%
- Mamadou Kouyate to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Gefle32% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
- 1 · Gefle32% probability@3.20NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Gefle | X | 2 · FBK Karlstad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.02 |
| LeoVegas | 2.95 | 3.25 | 2.12 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 2% 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.02 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 15:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an FBK Karlstad win since 21 October — the odds have shortened from 2.52 to 2.02 (−20%).
1+34 %
38 %28 %
2.38 → 3.20
X-1 %
31 %21 %
3.45 → 3.40
2-20 %
45 %35 %
2.52 → 2.02
Nordicbet · 8 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesGefle 0Draw 0FBK Karlstad 1
Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Gefle
FBK Karlstad
Gefle (33–47)
FBK Karlstad (44–37)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Gefle
FBK Karlstad
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Gefle
FBK Karlstad
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Gefle | FBK Karlstad |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 32 | 46 |
| xPoints | 37.2 | 44.9 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Gefle | FBK Karlstad |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 37 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| Passes per match | 331 | 290 |
| Passes against per match | 440 | 418 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.5 | 19.7 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Gefle | FBK Karlstad |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 4.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| Other | Gefle | FBK Karlstad |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| The goalkeepers | Max Croon (Gefle) | Vincent Johansson (FBK Karlstad) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 84 | 71 |
| Save % | 64% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 42% | 56% |
| Claims | 139 (94%) | 109 (92%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Utsikten – Tvååker23 October 2026 19:00 CEST
- Järfälla – Hammarby TFF23 October 2026 19:30 CEST
- AFC Malmö – Ängelholm24 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Eskilsminne – Lunds BK24 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Rosengård – Kristianstad FC24 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Laholm – Olympic24 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Hässleholms IF – Skövde AIK24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- FC Trollhättan – Jönköpings Södra24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Karlstad Fotboll – Stockholm Internazionale24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Gefle vs FBK Karlstad according to our model?
The model gives FBK Karlstad a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gefle 32%, draw 25%, FBK Karlstad 43%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Gefle vs FBK Karlstad?
The model expects 1.49 goals (xG) for Gefle and 1.49 for FBK Karlstad, 2.98 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Gefle or draw (1X) 57%, FBK Karlstad or draw (X2) 68% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.