01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Vasalund to win52%
- Over 1.5 goals89%
Swedish Ettan16°16 km/h
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VasalundPossession control2–3
Enköpings SKPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Vasalund (52%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 3.85 (+21 %)
Vasalund – Enköpings SK · Swedish Ettan
1 · Vasalund 52%X 23%25% Enköpings SK · 2
52%
23%
25%
Analysis: Vasalund – Enköpings SK
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Vasalund's home strength suggests a slight edge for the hosts in their clash against Enköping, even though they trail in the table by six points. The home side has a 52% chance of winning according to the model, with their possession-based style likely to limit opportunities for the visitors. Enköping's control of possession won't come easy, especially with Vasalund's decent track record, boasting wins in over half their home fixtures historically.
Recent head-to-heads favor Vasalund, with two wins and a draw in their past three meetings. However, with such a small sample, this is less significant than the current form. Both teams are expected to find the net, with a high 70% probability for both teams to score and a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals. The matchup leans towards a 2-1 result for Vasalund, but the 1-1 and 2-2 scorelines aren't far behind in likelihood.
Expected goals data gives Vasalund a slight upper hand, 2.19 to Enköping's 1.52, yet this is tempered by almost equal defensive records, with Vasalund's xGA at 1.6 against Enköping's 1.5. This suggests a competitive match where defences may struggle to contain the opposition’s attack.
If you're searching for value, consider the over 4.5 goals market available at 3.85 odds with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model gives this outcome a 31% shot, translating into a juicy 21% expected value edge. While such high-scoring games are less frequent, the numbers suggest it's a tempting punt given the attacking profiles on display.
VasalundForm DWDWL
League ranking xG #16xGA #23xT #22xP/match #23Points #20
Key players
- Ali KhanLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.45
- Christopher SliwoFxG 0.51 · xT 0.04
- Marko NikolicFxG 0.17 · xT 0.23
Enköpings SKForm LWLDL
League ranking xG #24xGA #22xT #32xP/match #28Points #14
Key players
- Alexander HughesLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.47
- Isak BråholmLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.15
- Lucky NwaforFxG 0.42 · xT 0.05
Final score
2 – 3
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Vasalund 52% · Draw 23% · Enköpings SK 25%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Vasalunds IFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,41fair 4,13+7 %
MissMatch prediction: Vasalund – Enköpings SK
Predicted score matrix
Enköpings SK →
Vasalund →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–02.7%
0–13.5%
0–22.8%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–05.1%
1–18.4%
1–26.2%
1–33.1%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–05.9%
2–18.9%
2–26.8%
2–33.4%
2–4+1.8%
3
3–04.3%
3–16.5%
3–25.0%
3–32.5%
3–4+1.3%
4+
4+–03.9%
4+–15.9%
4+–24.5%
4+–32.3%
4+–4+1.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-19%
- 2.1-18%
- 3.2-27%
- 4.3-17%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
2,19–1,52
Both teams to score
70%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,70
19%
217%
321%
419%
5+31%
Under 2,528%
@2.35
Over 2,572%
@1.52EV+9%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Vasalund to win52%
- Over 2.5 goals72%
- Prince Amos to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score70%
- Over 2.5 goals72%
- Prince Amos to score33%
- Oscar Kihlgren to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 4.531% probability@3.85BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
- Over 4.531% probability@3.85BetssonEV+21%reference odds
- Over 4.531% probability@3.85NordicbetEV+21%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Vasalund | X | 2 · Enköpings SK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.75 | 3.75 | 3.70 |
| Betsson | 1.75 | 3.75 | 3.70 |
| Nordicbet | 1.75 | 3.75 | 3.70 |
Odds updated 4 Sept, 17:39
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Vasalund win since 1 September — the odds have shortened from 2.02 to 1.75 (−13%).
1-13 %
53 %43 %
2.02 → 1.75
X+4 %
30 %20 %
3.60 → 3.75
2+23 %
32 %22 %
3.00 → 3.70
Betsson · 4 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesVasalund 2Draw 1Enköpings SK 0
Goals: 7–2 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- Vasalund win 55% of their home matches all-time (55 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Vasalund
Enköpings SK
Vasalund (30–38)
Enköpings SK (27–31)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Vasalund
Enköpings SK
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Vasalund
Enköpings SK
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Vasalund | Enköpings SK |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 23 | 29 |
| xPoints | 23.5 | 22.1 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.37 | 0.3 |
| Playing style | Vasalund | Enköpings SK |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 0.97 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.84 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| Passes per match | 370 | 450 |
| Passes against per match | 317 | 330 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.3 | 16.5 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Vasalund | Enköpings SK |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.55 |
| Other | Vasalund | Enköpings SK |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| The goalkeepers | Sindri Olafsson (Vasalund) | Victor Astor (Enköpings SK) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 45 | 50 |
| Save % | 66% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 42% |
| Claims | 72 (91%) | 62 (95%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Vasalund vs Enköpings SK according to our model?
The model gives Vasalund a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vasalund 52%, draw 23%, Enköpings SK 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 72% and under at 28%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 70% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.