Grasshopper vs Young Boys Prediction: Away win 53% (11 Oct 2026)

Swiss Super League11 October 2026 14:00 CESTLetzigrund, Zürich12°5,1 mm18 km/h

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GrasshopperCounter-attacks & crosses

Young BoysPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Young Boys (53%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.75 (+37 %)

1 · Grasshopper 22%X 25%53% Young Boys · 2

22%

25%

53%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Grasshopper – Young Boys

Sofia Andersson · 3 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Grasshopper and Young Boys set up for an intriguing clash, with the visitors holding a 53% chance of victory. Despite Grasshopper's historical dominance in their recent head-to-heads, the numbers favor the visitors in this encounter. Young Boys’ unbeaten streak of 12 league matches underscores their current form, suggesting they are well-equipped to handle the challenge.

The expected goals model leans towards Young Boys, predicting a 1.94 to 1.33 edge over Grasshopper. Young Boys’ style of possession control contrasts with the hosts’ counter-attacking approach, which may see the visitors controlling the tempo. The home side, however, cannot be dismissed entirely, having scored in 12 consecutive league matches. The likelihood of both teams finding the net sits at 63%, mirroring the probability for over 2.5 goals, indicating that there could be plenty of action despite the wet conditions.

Grasshopper’s record in this fixture since 2023, with three wins and three draws from six matches, suggests they know how to handle Young Boys. However, their xGA of 2.0 per match reveals vulnerabilities in defense, something Young Boys’ more clinical attacking unit is poised to exploit. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-2 point towards a narrow match, with both sides capable of finding the back of the net.

From a betting perspective, there are two standout angles. The under 3.5 goals at odds of 2.18 with LeoVegas offers a 28% edge, consistent with the model’s weather-adjusted assessment. For those eyeing riskier returns, the draw at odds of 4.5, also with LeoVegas, carries an 11% edge, aligning with the model's 25% probability.

Grasshopper

Form WDWLL

League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #6xP/match #7Points #10

Key players

Samuel Sebastian KrasniqiLWxG 0.36 · xT 0.37
Tim MeyerCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Young Joon LeeFxG 0.55 · xT -0.01

Young Boys

Form DWDDW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #2xP/match #1Points #2

Key players

Samuel Emmanuel Essende MbonguFxG 0.86 · xT 0.07
Joel MonteiroLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.15
Alvyn SanchesCAMxG 0.30 · xT 0.26

Match prediction: Grasshopper – Young Boys

Predicted score matrix

Young Boys →

Grasshopper →

0–04.1%

0–17.1%

0–27.2%

0–34.7%

0–4+3.5%

1–04.7%

1–110.1%

1–29.5%

1–36.2%

1–4+4.7%

2–03.3%

2–16.5%

2–26.3%

2–34.1%

2–4+3.1%

3–01.5%

3–12.9%

3–22.8%

3–31.8%

3–4+1.4%

4+–00.7%

4+–11.3%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-27%
4.0-17%
5.2-16%

Expected goals

1,33–1,94

Both teams to score

63%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@3.75EV+35%

Over 2,563%

@1.23

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Young Boys to win53%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Young Boys to win53%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Samuel Emmanuel Essende Mbongu to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score63%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Samuel Emmanuel Essende Mbongu to score33%
Tim Meyer to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.537% probability@3.75LeoVegasEV+37%reference odds
Under 2.537% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+35%reference odds
Under 2.537% probability@3.70NordicbetEV+35%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Grasshopper	X	2 · Young Boys
Betsafe	4.50	EV+ 14% 4.60	1.52
LeoVegas	4.50	EV+ 14% 4.60	1.53
Nordicbet	4.50	EV+ 14% 4.60	1.52

Odds updated 4 Oct, 14:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

23 %18 %

4.40 → 4.50

X+2 %

23 %18 %

4.50 → 4.60

20 %

62 %57 %

1.53 → 1.53

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Grasshopper 3Draw 3Young Boys 0

Goals: 12–6 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Grasshopper dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
Grasshopper have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
Young Boys are unbeaten in their last 12 league matches.
Young Boys have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Grasshopper

Young Boys

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Grasshopper (13–24)

Young Boys (31–18)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Grasshopper

Young Boys

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Grasshopper

Young Boys

The teams in numbers

Performance	Grasshopper	Young Boys
Points	8	19
xPoints	12.7	16.6
xG per match	1.8	2.4
xGA per match	2	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.42	0.49
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.21

Playing style	Grasshopper	Young Boys
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.36
Field tilt	0.5	0.58
xT per match	1.2	1.6
xTA per match	1.6	0.98
Won balls, offensive half	31	22
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.24
Entries into the box per match	15	18
Entries into the box against	16	11
Pass completion %	0.67	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.61	0.73
Passes per match	261	351
Passes against per match	359	357
Switches of play per match	15.2	30.5
Long balls per match	29	39

Set pieces	Grasshopper	Young Boys
xG from free kicks	0.18	0.04
Corners per match	5.3	5.9
Corners against per match	6.4	3.7
xG per corner	0.07	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.58

Other	Grasshopper	Young Boys
Throw-in control	0.63	0.73

The goalkeepers	Marvin Hübel (Grasshopper)	Marvin Keller (Young Boys)
Saves	17	25
Save %	59%	61%
xG prevented	41%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Grasshopper

Fixtures, form & tips

Young Boys

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Grasshopper vs Young Boys according to our model?

The model gives Young Boys a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Grasshopper 22%, draw 25%, Young Boys 53%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.