01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Thun or draw (X2)64%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Swiss Super LeagueLetzigrund, Zürich13°17,1 mm19 km/h
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FC ZürichCounter-attacks & crossesvs
ThunLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Thun (45%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.00 (+25 %)
FC Zürich vs Thun · Swiss Super League
1 · FC Zürich 30%X 25%45% Thun · 2
30%
25%
45%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: FC Zürich – Thun
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Thun's 45% win probability stands out against Zurich's 30%, suggesting value in the visitors. Despite Zurich's slight point edge (11 to Thun’s 10), their form is less convincing with a 1-2 head-to-head record since 2023. The small sample size makes this less relevant than expected goals, which are nearly equal: Zurich 1.48, Thun 1.54. Both teams show vulnerabilities, with Zurich's more solid defensive profile slightly offset by Thun's stronger attack.
The 58% probability of over 2.5 goals aligns with both teams’ offensive capabilities, but the rainy condition could dampen the scoring. Under 3.5 is priced at 1.85 with LeoVegas, offering a 19% value edge according to the model, and this is worth noting given the conditions. While Zurich’s counter-attack might find opportunities against Thun’s low defence, the visitors have shown resilience away from home.
The betting angle sharpens with Thun’s away odds of 2.25 at LeoVegas providing a minimal 1% edge. The most likely scorelines edge towards a 1-1 or 1-2, suggesting that while Zurich has home advantage, Thun is the more probable victor. The under 3.5 goals market, however, presents the standout value play due to the weather’s potential impact.
FC ZürichForm WLDWD
League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #7xP/match #9Points #6
Key players
- Philippe KenyFxG 0.48 · xT 0.07
- Kevin SpadanudaFxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
- Bledian KrasniqiCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.11
ThunForm DLLLW
League ranking xG #8xGA #12xT #8xP/match #11Points #9
Key players
- Brighton LabeauFxG 0.26 · xT 0.17
- Dorian DerbaciFxG 0.03 · xT 0.08
- Fabio FehrRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.27
Match prediction: FC Zürich – Thun
Predicted score matrix
Thun →
FC Zürich →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.2%
0–17.2%
0–25.8%
0–33.0%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–06.9%
1–111.4%
1–28.6%
1–34.4%
1–4+2.4%
2
2–05.3%
2–18.2%
2–26.3%
2–33.3%
2–4+1.8%
3
3–02.6%
3–14.1%
3–23.1%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.6%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-17%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,48–1,54
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,542%
@3.00EV+25%
Over 2,558%
@1.34
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Thun or draw (X2)64%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Brighton Andy Labeau Melchior to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Brighton Andy Labeau Melchior to score31%
- Jan Alexandre Bamert to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.542% probability@3.00BetsafeEV+25%reference odds
- Under 2.542% probability@3.00LeoVegasEV+25%reference odds
- Under 2.542% probability@3.00NordicbetEV+25%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · FC Zürich | X | 2 · Thun |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.62 | 3.75 | 2.22 |
| LeoVegas | 2.60 | 3.85 | EV+ 1% 2.25 |
| Nordicbet | 2.62 | 3.75 | 2.22 |
| Pinnacle | 2.78 | 3.87 | EV+ 3% 2.29 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 18:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesFC Zürich 1Draw 0Thun 2
Goals: 4–9 (⌀ 4,3)
Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
FC Zürich
Thun
FC Zürich (14–20)
Thun (15–23)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
FC Zürich
Thun
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
FC Zürich
Thun
The teams in numbers
| Performance | FC Zürich | Thun |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 10 |
| xPoints | 11.8 | 9.2 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| Playing style | FC Zürich | Thun |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| Passes per match | 282 | 286 |
| Passes against per match | 363 | 307 |
| Switches of play per match | 31.9 | 25.4 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 37 |
| Set pieces | FC Zürich | Thun |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| Other | FC Zürich | Thun |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.63 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Heinz Lindner (FC Zürich) | Niklas Steffen (Thun) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 31 |
| Save % | 58% | 57% |
| xG prevented | 48% | 30% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins FC Zürich vs Thun according to our model?
The model gives Thun a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Zürich 30%, draw 25%, Thun 45%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.