St. Gallen vs Lausanne Sport Prediction: Home win 66% (11 Oct 2026)

Swiss Super League11 October 2026 16:30 CESTKybunpark, St. Gallen10°5,4 mm19 km/h

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St. GallenPossession & high press

Lausanne SportPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · St. Gallen (66%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.95 (+9 %)

1 · St. Gallen 66%X 22%12% Lausanne Sport · 2

66%

22%

12%

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Analysis: St. Gallen – Lausanne Sport

Marcus Johansson · 3 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

St. Gallen are strong favorites in their clash against Lausanne Sport, with a 66% probability of victory according to the model. This reflects not only their superior current season form but also their dominance in recent head-to-head encounters. Winning four out of the last six meetings since 2023, St. Gallen clearly have the historical edge, despite the small sample size. They are poised to control the game through their possession and high pressing style, which should put the visitors under significant pressure.

Lausanne Sport's recent form is concerning, having lost their last three matches. Their possession control strategy may struggle against the hosts' aggressive pressing, potentially leading to turnovers in dangerous areas. With an expected goals (xG) figure of just 0.96 compared to St. Gallen's 2.29, Lausanne are likely to find scoring opportunities limited. The model's most likely scorelines of 2-0 and 2-1 in favor of the hosts reflect this discrepancy.

Weather conditions, including 18.3 mm of rain, could suppress scoring, but the impact is already accounted for in the model's calculations. Despite this, the over 2.5 goals probability stands at 63%, suggesting a match with multiple goals due to the hosts' offensive prowess and the visitors' defensive vulnerabilities.

St. Gallen's advantage is further highlighted by their xG and xPoints dominance. Their attacking output of 2.0 xG per match starkly contrasts with Lausanne's 0.82, underscoring their ability to create and capitalize on chances. Meanwhile, both teams concede 1.4 xGA per match, slightly favoring Lausanne, but not enough to shift the expected outcome dramatically.

For bettors, the sharp angle lies with the under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.8 with LeoVegas, offering a 7% edge as rated by the model. Given the weather and Lausanne's scoring struggles, this line presents value for those looking to exploit the nuances of the matchup.

St. Gallen

Form LWLLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #5xP/match #4Points #8

Key players

Aliou BaldeFxG 0.46 · xT 0.21
Lukas GortlerCMxG 0.32 · xT 0.18
Leon FrokajFxG 0.30 · xT 0.10

Lausanne Sport

Form LDLLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #4xT #12xP/match #12Points #12

Key players

Kevin MouangaCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
Jamie RocheCMxG 0.03 · xT -0.01
Morgan PoatyLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: St. Gallen – Lausanne Sport

Predicted score matrix

Lausanne Sport →

St. Gallen →

0–04.1%

0–13.5%

0–21.8%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–08.7%

1–18.8%

1–24.1%

1–31.3%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.2%

2–19.8%

2–24.7%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–07.8%

3–17.4%

3–23.6%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–07.6%

4+–17.3%

4+–23.5%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-110%
3.1-19%
4.1-09%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,29–0,96

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@2.95EV+9%

Over 2,563%

@1.35

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

St. Gallen to win66%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

St. Gallen to win66%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Lukas Stephan Horst Daschner to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Lukas Stephan Horst Daschner to score28%
Jamie John Roche to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.537% probability@2.95BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
Under 2.537% probability@2.95LeoVegasEV+9%reference odds
Under 2.537% probability@2.95NordicbetEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · St. Gallen	X	2 · Lausanne Sport
Betsafe	1.49	4.50	5.10
LeoVegas	1.50	EV+ 1% 4.60	4.90
Nordicbet	1.49	4.50	5.10

Odds updated 4 Oct, 16:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

64 %59 %

1.48 → 1.50

X+2 %

23 %18 %

4.50 → 4.60

20 %

21 %16 %

4.90 → 4.90

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

St. Gallen 4Draw 1Lausanne Sport 1

Goals: 11–9 (⌀ 3,3)

Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

St. Gallen dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.3 goals per meeting on average.
Lausanne Sport have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

St. Gallen

Lausanne Sport

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

St. Gallen (16–19)

Lausanne Sport (7–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

St. Gallen

Lausanne Sport

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

St. Gallen

Lausanne Sport

The teams in numbers

Performance	St. Gallen	Lausanne Sport
Points	10	6
xPoints	11.7	8.2
xG per match	2	0.82
xGA per match	1.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.44	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.32

Playing style	St. Gallen	Lausanne Sport
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.64	0.52
xT per match	1.4	0.85
xTA per match	0.63	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	35	21
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.36	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.36	0.24
Entries into the box per match	21	9
Entries into the box against	13	14
Pass completion %	0.68	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.63	0.69
Passes per match	300	337
Passes against per match	275	328
Switches of play per match	20.2	39.6
Long balls per match	33	44

Set pieces	St. Gallen	Lausanne Sport
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.07
Corners per match	7.8	4.6
Corners against per match	3.8	4.8
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.42

Other	St. Gallen	Lausanne Sport
Throw-in control	0.71	0.72

The goalkeepers	Lawrence Ati Zigi (St. Gallen)	Melvin Feyçal Mastil (Lausanne Sport)
Saves	22	35
Save %	56%	71%
xG prevented	34%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

St. Gallen

Fixtures, form & tips

Lausanne Sport

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins St. Gallen vs Lausanne Sport according to our model?

The model gives St. Gallen a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Gallen 66%, draw 22%, Lausanne Sport 12%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.