Vaduz vs Basel Prediction: Home win 46% (11 Oct 2026)

Swiss Super League11 October 2026 16:30 CESTRheinpark Stadion, Vaduz11°14,4 mm6 km/h

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VaduzCounter-attacks & crosses

BaselBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Vaduz (46%)

1 · Vaduz 46%X 25%29% Basel · 2

46%

25%

29%

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Vaduz – Basel

Anna Karlsson · 3 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

A 46% chance of victory for Vaduz sets the stage, with the model firmly backing the hosts despite Basel's points advantage in the league. Vaduz's attacking prowess, having scored in nine consecutive matches, is reflected in their superior expected goals of 1.90 compared to Basel's 1.45. However, Basel's slightly tighter defense suggests a closer contest than the points table might imply.

While Basel leads with 13 points to Vaduz's 6, xPoints tell a different story, favoring Vaduz with 11.9 to Basel's 9.3. This discrepancy underscores the potential for Vaduz to convert their expected goals and chances into a home victory. The likely scoreline of 1-1 at 10% probability, followed by 2-1 at 9%, highlights a match that could easily tilt in Vaduz's favor, especially if their counter-attacking style penetrates Basel's physical approach.

The standout betting angle lies in the EV+ opportunity with LeoVegas for Vaduz to win at odds of 2.5, an enticing 16% edge based on model ratings. Additionally, the under 3.5 goals market offers value at odds of 1.9, aligning with a 57% model probability, making it a prudent consideration in a game where rain might dampen scoring.

Vaduz

Form WLWLL

League ranking xG #5xGA #9xT #9xP/match #8Points #11

Key players

Lutfi DalipiFxG 0.16 · xT 0.28
Marcel MonsbergerFxG 0.54 · xT -0.04
Nicolas HaslerRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.20

Basel

Form DLLWL

League ranking xG #11xGA #3xT #11xP/match #10Points #4

Key players

Keigo TsunemotoRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.18
Žan CelarFxG 0.33 · xT -0.01
Flavius David DaniliucCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Vaduz – Basel

Predicted score matrix

Basel →

Vaduz →

0–03.8%

0–14.8%

0–23.7%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.9%

1–06.3%

1–19.9%

1–27.0%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.3%

2–19.2%

2–26.7%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.6%

3–04.0%

3–15.8%

3–24.2%

3–32.0%

3–4+1.0%

4+–02.9%

4+–14.3%

4+–23.1%

4+–31.5%

4+–4+0.8%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.2-27%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

1,90–1,45

Both teams to score

65%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+25%

Under 2,535%

@3.10EV+6%

Over 2,565%

@1.33

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Vaduz to win46%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Vaduz to win46%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Marcel Michael Monsberger to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score65%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Marcel Michael Monsberger to score27%
Jonas Harder to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Vaduz46% probability@2.52BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
1 · Vaduz46% probability@2.52NordicbetEV+17%reference odds
1 · Vaduz46% probability@2.50LeoVegasEV+16%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Vaduz	X	2 · Basel
Betsafe	EV+ 17% 2.52	3.80	2.30
LeoVegas	EV+ 16% 2.50	3.95	2.30
Nordicbet	EV+ 17% 2.52	3.80	2.30

Odds updated 4 Oct, 16:36

Odds movement

10 %

39 %34 %

2.50 → 2.50

X+1 %

26 %21 %

3.90 → 3.95

20 %

42 %37 %

2.30 → 2.30

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Vaduz have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vaduz

Basel

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Vaduz (18–21)

Basel (17–17)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vaduz

Basel

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vaduz

Basel

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vaduz	Basel
Points	6	13
xPoints	11.9	9.3
xG per match	1.9	1.1
xGA per match	1.8	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.35	0.18

Playing style	Vaduz	Basel
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.32
Field tilt	0.49	0.45
xT per match	1	0.91
xTA per match	1.3	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	27	21
Pressing intensity	0.28	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.22
Entries into the box per match	14	13
Entries into the box against	16	18
Pass completion %	0.77	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.72
Passes per match	420	362
Passes against per match	289	371
Switches of play per match	25.7	31.4
Long balls per match	35	33

Set pieces	Vaduz	Basel
xG from free kicks	0.1	0.04
Corners per match	4	3.7
Corners against per match	6.8	6.6
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.67
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.45

Other	Vaduz	Basel
Throw-in control	0.72	0.68

The goalkeepers	Leon Schaffran (Vaduz)	Mirko Salvi (Basel)
Saves	26	25
Save %	62%	61%
xG prevented	48%	38%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Vaduz

Fixtures, form & tips

Basel

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vaduz vs Basel according to our model?

The model gives Vaduz a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vaduz 46%, draw 25%, Basel 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.