Servette vs Sion Prediction: Away win 41% (10 Oct 2026)

Swiss Super League10 October 2026 18:00 CESTStade de Genève, Genève13°7,2 mm14 km/h

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ServettePossession control

SionCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 2 · Sion (41%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.65 (+1 %)

1 · Servette 31%X 28%41% Sion · 2

31%

28%

41%

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Analysis: Servette – Sion

Anna Karlsson · 2 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT:

A curious tension defines the Servette vs Sion clash: despite the hosts' historical dominance, all indicators suggest the visitors hold the upper hand. Sion's unbeaten streak in five league matches and their consistent scoring in 20 consecutive games point to a team in form. Add to that their edge in points, expected points, and expected goals, and the model's 41% win probability for Sion becomes hard to argue against.

Servette, traditionally controlling possession, will face a challenge against Sion's counter-attacking prowess. The hosts have historically fended off Sion with two wins in their last six meetings, but this small sample wields less influence than the current dynamics. Sion's knack for exploiting defensive gaps through crosses and quick transitions could prove decisive, even though Servette actually hold the edge defensively with an expected goals against of 1.5 per match compared to Sion's 1.7.

While the model projects a high likelihood of goals, with over 2.5 goals occurring 63% of the time and both teams scoring at a rate of 64%, the 1-1 and 1-2 scorelines loom large. Sion's offensive momentum tilts the balance towards the visitors. Despite the historical average of 3.2 goals per encounter, the current form suggests a more controlled affair from Sion’s end, potentially settling at 2-1 in their favor.

For punters, the focus should be on Sion's potential for an upset at odds with the historical record. Sion's current form and statistical edge make them an enticing pick. While history may whisper caution, numbers speak louder in football, and they seem to favor the visitors this time.

Servette

Form LLWWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #6xT #10xP/match #6Points #7

Key players

Florian AyéFxG 0.31 · xT 0.03
Samuel MrazFxG 0.86 · xT -0.01
Kingstone MutandwaFxG 0.64 · xT 0.04

Sion

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #2xGA #7xT #1xP/match #2Points #3

Key players

Winsley BoteliFxG 0.72 · xT 0.06
Donat RrudhaniFxG 0.31 · xT 0.24
Ali KabacalmanCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.21

Match prediction: Servette – Sion

Predicted score matrix

Sion →

Servette →

0–04.2%

0–16.7%

0–26.4%

0–33.9%

0–4+2.7%

1–05.2%

1–110.4%

1–29.2%

1–35.6%

1–4+3.8%

2–04.0%

2–17.2%

2–26.6%

2–34.0%

2–4+2.8%

3–01.9%

3–13.4%

3–23.1%

3–31.9%

3–4+1.3%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-29%
3.2-17%
4.0-17%
5.2-27%

Expected goals

1,43–1,82

Both teams to score

64%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@2.55

Over 2,563%

@1.46

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sion or draw (X2)70%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sion or draw (X2)70%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Winsley Boteli to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score64%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Winsley Boteli to score22%
Pedro Henrique Naressi Machado to be booked26%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw28% probability@3.65LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
2 · Sion41% probability@2.42BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
2 · Sion41% probability@2.42NordicbetEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Servette	X	2 · Sion
Betsafe	2.45	3.60	EV+ 0% 2.42
LeoVegas	2.50	EV+ 1% 3.65	2.40
Nordicbet	2.45	3.60	EV+ 0% 2.42

Odds updated 4 Oct, 18:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

39 %34 %

2.45 → 2.50

X+1 %

28 %23 %

3.60 → 3.65

20 %

40 %35 %

2.40 → 2.40

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Servette 2Draw 4Sion 0

Goals: 12–7 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Swiss Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Servette dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.2 goals per meeting on average.
Sion are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Sion have scored in 20 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Servette

Sion

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Servette (11–13)

Sion (23–14)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Servette

Sion

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Servette

Sion

The teams in numbers

Performance	Servette	Sion
Points	10	19
xPoints	12.9	14.1
xG per match	1.5	2.1
xGA per match	1.5	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.27

Playing style	Servette	Sion
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.43	0.49
xT per match	0.95	1.7
xTA per match	1.5	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	27	23
Pressing intensity	0.26	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.26
Entries into the box per match	15	17
Entries into the box against	16	16
Pass completion %	0.74	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.73
Passes per match	332	397
Passes against per match	341	339
Switches of play per match	22.6	31.3
Long balls per match	34	35

Set pieces	Servette	Sion
xG from free kicks	0.09	0.06
Corners per match	6	5.7
Corners against per match	6.5	4.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.57
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.38

Other	Servette	Sion
Throw-in control	0.74	0.72

The goalkeepers	Edvinas Gertmonas (Servette)	Anthony Racioppi (Sion)
Saves	18	24
Save %	62%	63%
xG prevented	41%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Servette

Fixtures, form & tips

Sion

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Servette vs Sion according to our model?

The model gives Sion a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Servette 31%, draw 28%, Sion 41%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.