Turkish 1. Lig19°6 km/h

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    Ankara KeçiörengücüAnkara KeçiörengücüPossession control
    vs
    SivassporSivassporPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü (57%)

    Ankara Keçiörengücü vs Sivasspor · Turkish 1. Lig

    1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü 57%X 24%19% Sivasspor · 2

    Analysis: Ankara Keçiörengücü – Sivasspor

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Ankara Keçiörengücü enters the match with a solid 57% win probability, a clear indication of their current form and tactical edge. Their unbeaten streak in the last six league encounters underscores a well-oiled possession-based strategy that consistently generates xG of 1.92. In contrast, Sivasspor's relatively modest expected goals of 0.93 depict a side in search of more incisive attacking play. Both teams favor possession control, suggesting a tactical chess match rather than an open battle.

    While the head-to-head record since 2024 between these teams is limited to just two matches, with the hosts undefeated, it's not a significant factor compared to the form data. Ankara has a clear edge in both actual points (12 vs. 7) and expected points (12.7 vs. 9.4), which paints a picture of a team outperforming their opponents on the pitch in recent games. The expected goals against (xGA) further tilt the scales towards the home side — 1.2 for Ankara compared to Sivasspor’s 1.7.

    The model leans towards a tight contest, perhaps 1-0 or 2-0 for Ankara. Despite a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, the possession-based styles might suppress scoring. With Ankara available at 1.91 odds across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a notable 9% value edge worth considering for bettors.

    Ankara KeçiörengücüAnkara Keçiörengücü
    Form DDWWD
    League ranking xG #3xGA #10xT #11xP/match #3Points #6
    Key players
    • Mame DioufFxG 0.47 · xT 0.02
    • Ishak KaraogulFxG 0.12 · xT 0.00
    • Francis EzehLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.17
    SivassporSivasspor
    Form DLDWD
    League ranking xG #10xGA #19xT #16xP/match #11Points #15
    Key players
    • Rey ManajFxG 0.77 · xT -0.04
    • Uğur ÇiftçiLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.16
    • Valon EthemiLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.05

    Match prediction: Ankara Keçiörengücü – Sivasspor

    Predicted score matrix

    Sivasspor →
    Ankara Keçiörengücü →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.1%
    0–15.1%
    0–22.5%
    0–30.8%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–010.8%
    1–110.6%
    1–24.8%
    1–31.5%
    1–4+0.4%
    2
    2–010.7%
    2–19.9%
    2–24.6%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–06.9%
    3–16.4%
    3–22.9%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–05.1%
    4+–14.8%
    4+–22.2%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-011%
    2. 2.2-011%
    3. 3.1-111%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.3-07%
    Expected goals
    1,92–0,93
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,546%
    @2.22EV+1%
    Over 2,554%
    @1.57

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Ankara Keçiörengücü to win57%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    50%

    Fair odds

    2.02

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Ankara Keçiörengücü to win57%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Halil Can Ayan to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Halil Can Ayan to score26%
    • Kamil Fidan to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü57% probability@1.85BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
    • 1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü57% probability@1.85BetssonEV+6%reference odds
    • 1 · Ankara Keçiörengücü57% probability@1.85NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Ankara KeçiörengücüX2 · Sivasspor
    Betsafe
    EV+ 6%
    1.85    		3.623.62
    Betsson
    EV+ 6%
    1.85    		3.623.62
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 6%
    1.85    		3.623.62

    Odds updated 19 Sept, 11:38

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 14 September — the odds have shortened from 1.74 to 1.57 (−10%).

    1-5 %
    53 %43 %

    1.95 → 1.85

    X+4 %
    31 %21 %

    3.49 → 3.62

    2+6 %
    31 %21 %

    3.40 → 3.62

    Over 2,5-10 %
    61 %51 %

    1.74 → 1.57

    Betsson · 13 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Ankara Keçiörengücü 1Draw 1Sivasspor 0
    Goals: 1–0 (⌀ 0,5)

    Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

    Key facts

    • Ankara Keciorengucu are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Ankara Keçiörengücü
    Sivasspor
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Ankara Keçiörengücü (16–9)
    Sivasspor (8–10)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Ankara Keçiörengücü
    Wellington Ferreira Nascimento: 225 passningar, xT 0.47NascimentoAbdullah Celik: 180 passningar, xT 0.46CelikBerkan Keskin: 146 passningar, xT 0.19KeskinIbrahim Akdag: 137 passningar, xT 0.68AkdagIshak Karaogul: 133 passningar, xT -0.04KaraogulSuleyman Lus: 102 passningar, xT 0.34LusMehmet Erdogan: 78 passningar, xT 0.07ErdoganOguzcan Caliskan: 76 passningar, xT 0.12CaliskanFrancis Ezeh: 75 passningar, xT 0.6EzehOdise Roshi: 74 passningar, xT 0.69RoshiYunus Bahadir: 58 passningar, xT 0.07Bahadir
    Sivasspor
    Aaron Appindangoye: 170 passningar, xT 0.24AppindangoyeUğur Çiftçi: 167 passningar, xT 0.85ÇiftçiKamil Fidan: 86 passningar, xT 0.03FidanMert Çelik: 85 passningar, xT -0.01ÇelikSüleyman Özdamar: 84 passningar, xT 0.03ÖzdamarCharilaos Charisis: 81 passningar, xT 0.19CharisisMusah Mohammed: 79 passningar, xT 0.15MohammedMurat Paluli: 74 passningar, xT 0.08PaluliOkan Erdogan: 70 passningar, xT 0.12ErdoganCihat Celik: 62 passningar, xT 0.22CelikBurak Kapacak: 49 passningar, xT 0.9Kapacak
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Ankara Keçiörengücü
    Wellington Ferreira Nascimento: 225 passningar, xT 0.47NascimentoAbdullah Celik: 180 passningar, xT 0.46CelikBerkan Keskin: 146 passningar, xT 0.19KeskinIbrahim Akdag: 137 passningar, xT 0.68AkdagIshak Karaogul: 133 passningar, xT -0.04KaraogulSuleyman Lus: 102 passningar, xT 0.34LusMehmet Erdogan: 78 passningar, xT 0.07ErdoganOguzcan Caliskan: 76 passningar, xT 0.12CaliskanFrancis Ezeh: 75 passningar, xT 0.6EzehOdise Roshi: 74 passningar, xT 0.69RoshiYunus Bahadir: 58 passningar, xT 0.07Bahadir
    Sivasspor
    Aaron Appindangoye: 170 passningar, xT 0.24AppindangoyeUğur Çiftçi: 167 passningar, xT 0.85ÇiftçiKamil Fidan: 86 passningar, xT 0.03FidanMert Çelik: 85 passningar, xT -0.01ÇelikSüleyman Özdamar: 84 passningar, xT 0.03ÖzdamarCharilaos Charisis: 81 passningar, xT 0.19CharisisMusah Mohammed: 79 passningar, xT 0.15MohammedMurat Paluli: 74 passningar, xT 0.08PaluliOkan Erdogan: 70 passningar, xT 0.12ErdoganCihat Celik: 62 passningar, xT 0.22CelikBurak Kapacak: 49 passningar, xT 0.9Kapacak

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAnkara KeçiörengücüSivasspor
    Points127
    xPoints12.79.4
    xG per match1.71.3
    xGA per match1.21.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.350.24
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.170.3
    Playing styleAnkara KeçiörengücüSivasspor
    Build-up efficiency0.340.33
    Field tilt0.430.46
    xT per match0.950.78
    xTA per match11.1
    Won balls, offensive half2621
    Pressing intensity0.230.21
    Pressing efficiency0.260.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.190.24
    Entries into the box per match1012
    Entries into the box against1513
    Pass completion %0.760.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.67
    Passes per match303279
    Passes against per match394328
    Switches of play per match25.429.1
    Long balls per match3938
    Set piecesAnkara KeçiörengücüSivasspor
    xG from free kicks0.080.15
    Corners per match44.3
    Corners against per match5.35.7
    xG per corner0.010.03
    xGA per corner against0.040.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.390.47
    First touch, defensive corners %0.540.65
    OtherAnkara KeçiörengücüSivasspor
    Throw-in control0.70.69
    The goalkeepersEmre Satilmis (Ankara Keçiörengücü)Mehmet Göktuğ Bakırbaş (Sivasspor)
    Saves1212
    Save %63%60%
    xG prevented36%47%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Ankara Keçiörengücü
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Sivasspor
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Ankara Keçiörengücü vs Sivasspor according to our model?

    The model gives Ankara Keçiörengücü a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ankara Keçiörengücü 57%, draw 24%, Sivasspor 19%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.