Sarıyer vs Boluspor: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig19 September 202618°7 km/h

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SarıyerPossession control

BolusporLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Sarıyer (66%)Best value by the model: 2 · Boluspor @ 15.37 (+109 %)

1 · Sarıyer 66%X 20%14% Boluspor · 2

66%

20%

14%

Analysis: Sarıyer – Boluspor

Sofia Andersson · 19 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Sarıyer sits comfortably on a streak of dominance, reflected not only in points but also in underlying metrics. With just two head-to-head encounters against Boluspor since 2024, Sarıyer leads with one win and one draw. However, the sample is minimal, offering limited predictive power. The hosts' strength is further underscored by their expected goals (xG) of 2.01 compared to Boluspor’s 0.90, hinting at an offensive edge.

On paper, it’s Sarıyer’s game to lose. The model rates them at a 66% chance of victory, and their possession-oriented style should allow them to dictate the tempo against Boluspor's low block and direct play. The expected goals against (xGA) also tells a compelling story: Sarıyer concedes 1.1 xGA per match to Boluspor’s worrying 1.9, underlining the visitors' defensive vulnerabilities.

Despite the odds heavily favoring the home side, the betting market offers an intriguing opportunity. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present odds of 11.96 for a Boluspor win, which the model rates at a 14% probability — a significant 62% value edge. While this reflects a high-risk assessment, the potential reward for capitalizing on this mispricing cannot be ignored.

In terms of likely outcomes, the 2-0 and 1-0 scorelines, both at 11% likelihood, align with Sarıyer's superior xG and xPoints figures. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 56%, suggesting a marginal lean towards a potentially open game, yet the close 52% for both teams to score indicates some caution.

Ultimately, Sarıyer's form and metrics point toward a comfortable victory, but the market's misjudgment of Boluspor's chances at such high odds is the sharpest angle here. Even in a match seemingly tilted towards the hosts, the bold bettor may find value in the long odds for an upset.

Sarıyer

Form LWWLD

League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #5xP/match #5Points #8

Key players

Esref KorkmazogluLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.16
Cebrail KarayelRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
Batuhan KörFxG 0.38 · xT 0.04

Boluspor

Form LLLLD

League ranking xG #20xGA #21xT #20xP/match #20Points #21

Key players

Furkan Emin KaçmazLWxG 0.12 · xT -0.02
Rodrigo Rivas GonzálezFxG 0.20 · xT 0.00
Fernando Roberto Escobar RodriguezLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.02

Match prediction: Sarıyer – Boluspor

Predicted score matrix

Boluspor →

Sarıyer →

0–05.8%

0–14.6%

0–22.2%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–010.7%

1–110.1%

1–24.4%

1–31.3%

1–4+0.4%

2–011.1%

2–19.9%

2–24.4%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–07.4%

3–16.6%

3–23.0%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–05.9%

4+–15.3%

4+–22.4%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.1-011%
3.1-110%
4.2-110%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

2,01–0,90

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@2.26EV+0%

Over 2,556%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sarıyer to win66%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sarıyer to win66%
Over 2.5 goals56%
André Ivan Biyogo Poko to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals56%
André Ivan Biyogo Poko to score32%
Can Arda Yılmaz to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Boluspor14% probability@15.37BetsafeEV+109%reference odds
2 · Boluspor14% probability@15.37BetssonEV+109%reference odds
2 · Boluspor14% probability@15.37NordicbetEV+109%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sarıyer	X	2 · Boluspor
Betsafe	1.22	4.79	EV+ 109% 15.37
Betsson	1.22	4.79	EV+ 109% 15.37
Nordicbet	1.22	4.79	EV+ 109% 15.37

Odds updated 19 Sept, 11:38

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards the draw since 14 September — the odds have shortened from 5.26 to 4.79 (−9%).

10 %

77 %72 %

1.22 → 1.22

X-9 %

21 %16 %

5.26 → 4.79

2+28 %

9 %4 %

11.98 → 15.37

Over 2,5+1 %

62 %57 %

1.54 → 1.55

Betsson · 19 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sarıyer 1Draw 1Boluspor 0

Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sarıyer

Boluspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sarıyer (9–8)

Boluspor (2–18)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sarıyer

Boluspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sarıyer

Boluspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sarıyer	Boluspor
Points	11	1
xPoints	11.3	6.4
xG per match	1.4	0.73
xGA per match	1.1	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.33

Playing style	Sarıyer	Boluspor
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.31
Field tilt	0.48	0.32
xT per match	1.1	0.65
xTA per match	0.94	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	22	19
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.17	0.18
Entries into the box per match	13	7
Entries into the box against	11	14
Pass completion %	0.79	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.68
Passes per match	375	255
Passes against per match	374	451
Switches of play per match	32.2	21.4
Long balls per match	42	29

Set pieces	Sarıyer	Boluspor
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.07
Corners per match	3.3	2.3
Corners against per match	4.4	5.9
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.42	0.73

Other	Sarıyer	Boluspor
Throw-in control	0.7	0.73

The goalkeepers	Ibrahim Šehić (Sarıyer)	Angelo Tafas (Boluspor)
Saves	10	20
Save %	67%	57%
xG prevented	40%	27%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sarıyer

Fixtures, form & tips

Boluspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sarıyer vs Boluspor according to our model?

The model gives Sarıyer a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sarıyer 66%, draw 20%, Boluspor 14%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.