Batman Petrolspor vs Bursaspor: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig19 September 202626°0,1 mm7 km/h

Batman PetrolsporPossession control

BursasporPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Bursaspor (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.29 (+3 %)

Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

1 · Batman Petrolspor 33%X 31%36% Bursaspor · 2

33%

31%

36%

Analysis: Batman Petrolspor – Bursaspor

Oscar Nilsson · 19 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Batman Petrolspor's possession-based approach faces a real test against Bursaspor's high press. Despite the hosts' higher points total, Bursaspor comes in with a slight edge according to the model. The visitors' pressing game could disrupt Batman Petrolspor's rhythm, especially given their lower xGA of 0.92, suggesting a more resilient defense compared to Batman’s. This defensive edge is crucial in a tight matchup where both sides seem evenly matched on paper.

Yet, the numbers reveal a contradiction. While Bursaspor's probability to win is marginally higher at 36%, Batman Petrolspor's xG per match of 1.7 surpasses Bursaspor’s 1.6, indicating a slightly sharper attack. The expected goals also lean towards the visitors at 1.56 to 1.30, hinting at their potential to carve out opportunities despite the hosts' possession tactics. This tension between Batman’s higher expected attacking output and Bursaspor’s defensive solidity makes for an intriguing clash of styles.

The market has priced the draw at 3.28, which Betsson offers with a 3% edge according to the model's evaluation. Given the tight forecast, the 31% likelihood of a stalemate presents genuine value. With the likelihood of both teams scoring sitting at 58%, a 1-1 draw emerges as the most probable outcome, backed up by its 12% chance in the model.

In terms of goals, the lean towards over 2.5 is at 55%, suggesting a slightly more open game than one might expect with such closely matched teams. However, considering Bursaspor's solid defensive stats, the under can't be dismissed entirely. Ultimately, the draw offers the sharpest betting angle, with its value further enhanced by the balanced nature of the expected goals and playing styles on display.

Batman Petrolspor

Form WWWWL

League ranking xG #2xGA #11xT #7xP/match #6Points #2

Key players

Pedro Henrique Oliveira dos SantosFxG 0.58 · xT 0.08
Polat YaldırRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.08
Bernardo Martins de SousaRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.21

Bursaspor

Form LWWWD

League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #3xP/match #4Points #3

Key players

Kelechi Promise ỊheanachọFxG 0.78 · xT 0.02
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos SantosFxG 0.26 · xT 0.07
Amine BoutrahLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.29

Match prediction: Batman Petrolspor – Bursaspor

Predicted score matrix

Bursaspor →

Batman Petrolspor →

0–06.0%

0–18.6%

0–27.0%

0–33.6%

0–4+2.0%

1–07.1%

1–111.9%

1–29.1%

1–34.7%

1–4+2.6%

2–04.8%

2–17.5%

2–25.9%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.7%

3–02.1%

3–13.3%

3–22.6%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,30–1,56

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,545%

@1.94

Over 2,555%

@1.75

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Bursaspor or draw (X2)69%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Bursaspor or draw (X2)69%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Eyup Akcan to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Sergio Duvan Córdova Lezama to score27%
Jin-Ho Jo to be booked26%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw31% probability@3.29BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.29BetssonEV+3%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.29NordicbetEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Batman Petrolspor	X	2 · Bursaspor
Betsafe	EV+ 1% 3.10	EV+ 3% 3.29	2.14
Betsson	EV+ 1% 3.10	EV+ 3% 3.29	2.14
Nordicbet	EV+ 1% 3.10	EV+ 3% 3.29	2.14

Odds updated 19 Sept, 11:38

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Bursaspor win since 14 September — the odds have shortened from 2.42 to 2.14 (−12%).

1+17 %

37 %27 %

2.66 → 3.10

X0 %

33 %23 %

3.28 → 3.29

2-12 %

45 %35 %

2.42 → 2.14

Over 2,50 %

58 %48 %

1.75 → 1.75

Betsson · 9 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Batman Petrolspor

Bursaspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Batman Petrolspor (16–11)

Bursaspor (14–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Batman Petrolspor

Bursaspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Batman Petrolspor

Bursaspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Batman Petrolspor	Bursaspor
Points	19	16
xPoints	12.7	11.7
xG per match	1.7	1.6
xGA per match	1.3	0.92
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.32	0.42
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.34	0.19

Playing style	Batman Petrolspor	Bursaspor
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.38
Field tilt	0.5	0.65
xT per match	1.1	1.2
xTA per match	1.1	0.7
Won balls, offensive half	23	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.28
Entries into the box per match	12	15
Entries into the box against	11	8
Pass completion %	0.76	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.76
Passes per match	322	433
Passes against per match	291	293
Switches of play per match	25.3	28
Long balls per match	41	31

Set pieces	Batman Petrolspor	Bursaspor
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.04
Corners per match	4.5	6.2
Corners against per match	3.7	3.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.7	0.57

Other	Batman Petrolspor	Bursaspor
Throw-in control	0.68	0.69

The goalkeepers	Caglar Akbaba (Batman Petrolspor)	Kerem Matışlı (Bursaspor)
Saves	25	11
Save %	69%	65%
xG prevented	45%	35%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Batman Petrolspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Bursaspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Batman Petrolspor vs Bursaspor according to our model?

The model gives Bursaspor a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Batman Petrolspor 33%, draw 31%, Bursaspor 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.