Pendikspor vs Bodrumspor: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Turkish 1. Lig20 September 202621°26 km/h

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PendiksporCounter-attacks & crosses

BodrumsporPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Pendikspor (45%)Best value by the model: 2 · Bodrumspor @ 3.84 (+2 %)

1 · Pendikspor 45%X 28%27% Bodrumspor · 2

45%

28%

27%

Analysis: Pendikspor – Bodrumspor

Anna Karlsson · 19 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: The head-to-head record is intriguing yet limited: in the mere three meetings since 2024, Pendikspor have failed to secure a victory against Bodrumspor, with two draws and a loss. While this might suggest a psychological edge for the visitors, the sample size is too small to overshadow the more pressing patterns revealed by current form and expected goals. Pendikspor evidently have the upper hand, pointedly evidenced by their superior expected points (9.2 to 6.2) and xG metrics.

Pendikspor's advantage is not just theoretical. Their playing style, which thrives on counter-attacks and crosses, contrasts sharply with Bodrumspor's possession-heavy approach. This could prove decisive, as a team aiming for possession might struggle to translate control into goals against a side built for swift transitions. The xG per match statistic—Pendikspor's 1.1 against Bodrumspor's 0.63—further reinforces this mismatch, hinting at a potentially frustrating evening for the visitors who may monopolize the ball but struggle to find the net.

While the model gives Pendikspor a 45% chance of victory compared to Bodrumspor's 27%, the most likely scoreline of 1-1 (13%) suggests some caution. Yet, a narrow 1-0 win for the hosts (11%) is nearly as probable, supported by their stronger defensive metrics: an xGA of 1.0 against Bodrumspor's 1.3. This defensive solidity, combined with their attacking style, makes Pendikspor slight favorites in both the model and practical play.

For value seekers, the model's 28% draw probability could be worth a look. However, considering Pendikspor's statistical edge in almost every department, a 1-0 home victory sits comfortably in the realm of likely outcomes, leaning under 2.5 goals at 47%.

Pendikspor

Form WDLWD

League ranking xG #15xGA #4xT #8xP/match #12Points #11

Key players

Rogério Conceição do RosárioFxG 0.20 · xT 0.01
Bekir KaradenizRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.14
Hakan YeşilCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.28

Bodrumspor

Form DDDLW

League ranking xG #21xGA #14xT #19xP/match #21Points #14

Key players

Ege BilselLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.03
Ali HabeşoğluLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.02
Ali AytemurCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Pendikspor – Bodrumspor

Predicted score matrix

Bodrumspor →

Pendikspor →

0–08.0%

0–18.1%

0–24.7%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.6%

1–010.9%

1–112.8%

1–26.8%

1–32.5%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.2%

2–19.1%

2–25.0%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.0%

3–14.4%

3–22.4%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.0%

4+–12.2%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-18%

Expected goals

1,46–1,10

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.71

Over 2,547%

@2.00

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Pendikspor to win45%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Pendikspor to win45%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Rogério Conceição do Rosário to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Rogério Conceição do Rosário to score26%
Mesut Özdemir to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Bodrumspor27% probability@3.84BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
2 · Bodrumspor27% probability@3.84BetssonEV+2%reference odds
2 · Bodrumspor27% probability@3.84NordicbetEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Pendikspor	X	2 · Bodrumspor
Betsafe	1.89	3.28	EV+ 2% 3.84
Betsson	1.89	3.28	EV+ 2% 3.84
Nordicbet	1.89	3.28	EV+ 2% 3.84

Odds updated 19 Sept, 16:36

Odds movement

1-5 %

50 %45 %

2.00 → 1.89

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.29 → 3.28

2+10 %

28 %23 %

3.48 → 3.84

Over 2,50 %

49 %44 %

2.00 → 2.00

Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 19/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Pendikspor 0Draw 2Bodrumspor 1

Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 1,3)

Head-to-head based on Turkish 1. Lig data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Pendikspor

Bodrumspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Pendikspor (9–12)

Bodrumspor (6–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Pendikspor

Bodrumspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Pendikspor

Bodrumspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Pendikspor	Bodrumspor
Points	9	7
xPoints	9.2	6.2
xG per match	1.1	0.63
xGA per match	1	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.13

Playing style	Pendikspor	Bodrumspor
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.3
Field tilt	0.54	0.37
xT per match	1.1	0.72
xTA per match	0.92	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	23	23
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.19
Entries into the box per match	12	11
Entries into the box against	11	14
Pass completion %	0.79	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.7
Passes per match	384	317
Passes against per match	337	353
Switches of play per match	33.3	25.6
Long balls per match	47	43

Set pieces	Pendikspor	Bodrumspor
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.05
Corners per match	4.5	4.3
Corners against per match	3.5	4.2
xG per corner	0.04	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.71	0.5

Other	Pendikspor	Bodrumspor
Throw-in control	0.76	0.67

The goalkeepers	Utku Yuvakuran (Pendikspor)	Diogo Fesnard Nogueira Sousa (Bodrumspor)
Saves	9	25
Save %	60%	83%
xG prevented	32%	83%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Pendikspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Bodrumspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Pendikspor vs Bodrumspor according to our model?

The model gives Pendikspor a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pendikspor 45%, draw 28%, Bodrumspor 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.